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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    GEPS has a nice screamer. if the EPS picks up on it, it might be kinda legit. that +PNA is no joke
  2. brooklynwx99
    could be the inklings of something mildly interesting. very nice +PNA ridge out west with a vort diving in from the Upper Midwest. probably nothing all that crazy but it's very cold leading in and can potentially redevelop
  3. brooklynwx99
    could be the inklings of something mildly interesting. very nice +PNA ridge out west with a vort diving in from the Upper Midwest. probably nothing all that crazy but it's very cold leading in and can potentially redevelop
  4. brooklynwx99
    btw, there is split flow. the STJ isn't raging or anything but there is phasing potential in this kind of pattern
  5. brooklynwx99
    yeah, these fast split flow patterns with potent +PNA ridging can have strong NS shortwaves / phasing situations not even show up until days 4-7
  6. brooklynwx99
    yeah, that's true. I guess a clearer way to write what I meant is that you always sorta run the risk for dry periods when you have a cold pattern... you just increase the risk of cashing in when you do get moisture. gotta take the dryness to get the snow most of the time
  7. brooklynwx99
    basically, yes. all ENS are showing a 2014-15 pattern here after the first several days of the month. we'll see if it verifies, but we're already seeing good AK blocking and +PNA in the short range. better Pacific than we've seen in years
  8. brooklynwx99
    cold and dry is also kind of a cop out for longer time scales. of course it's going to be drier than average if it's cold. rather that than last year's 8" of rain in Dec
  9. brooklynwx99
    we've seen that Rex block look with a monster -EPO trapping a black hole over San Fran multiple times over the last few years. sickening
  10. brooklynwx99
    I agree. the reason why these patterns can appear cold and dry for a time before threats pop up is because of setups like this... this is the type of vort that can easily trend more amped and lead to miller B or strong clipper
  11. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the 12z models have shown some interest in allowing the Dec 1 wave to become more of its own entity, as seen on the GEFS. the airmass is much better and the -NAO is more established, so this is worth watching IMO
  12. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the 12z models have shown some interest in allowing the Dec 1 wave to become more of its own entity, as seen on the GEFS. the airmass is much better and the -NAO is more established, so this is worth watching IMO
  13. brooklynwx99
    models start bringing the baroclinic zone northward with more precip around the 5th. luckily we should have a cold airmass established unlike with the Thanksgiving storm
  14. brooklynwx99
    also, I agree with your point about the first week of Dec... there's a signal for a large 50/50 ULL and decaying block over the Davis Strait. climo is better and cold air is more firmly in place. this is probably the main window to watch if I had to pick one at this juncture
  15. brooklynwx99
    the timeframe around the 5th looks conducive for something bigger regionwide... anomalous 50/50, a decaying block over the Davis Strait, and persistent cross-polar flow. combine with an active STJ for split flow and there's a lot to like here
  16. brooklynwx99
    that's why I think holding the shortwave back with stronger confluence makes more sense. the GFS tried but it was just a bit too sloppy. I like its general evolution
  17. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the NAO pays off as it decays later in the run:
  18. brooklynwx99
    offshore. the overall synoptic setup was more favorable... Wiz is saying the same thing
  19. brooklynwx99
    right? that -NAO really slows down the flow. I think we want to see a more hung back vort overall, but seeing the confluence trend stronger is also important
  20. brooklynwx99
    i know we've been burnt over the last few winters but come onnnnnn
  21. brooklynwx99
    GFS has a much more interesting solution for next week... holds the main wave back and allows the block to go to work more. we've seen confluence and the -NAO trend stronger, which is nice to see
  22. brooklynwx99
    similar progression occurred in 2010
  23. brooklynwx99
    yup, it was in the "good phases" in Feb 2012 as well
  24. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the stronger that gets, the better if you can nose that -NAO more into central Canada you can also pop transient HP
  25. brooklynwx99
    my initial impression of late Nov into early Dec so far is that the persistently +AAM that's being forecasted combined with +EAMT event is extending the Pacific jet more than is typical of La Nina. extensions are often favorable for us, and I believe these factors are overriding the largely unfavorable MJO passage this general pattern favors +EAMT into early Dec, allowing for a persistently extended Pacific jet that leads to an Aleutian trough. the MJO isn't a silver bullet, and i do think we're seeing a break in the typically strong MJO correlation
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