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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    the ECMWF actually made a pretty drastic shift towards a more potent NS. hopefully it isn’t just a blip, because it’s much more similar to the GFS than 00z
  2. brooklynwx99
    you really want to see these earlier solutions with Baja energy ejecting… antecedent air mass is Arctic. wait longer and you run the risk of losing the confluence and a staler airmass
  3. brooklynwx99
    the 8th might be trending towards a legit storm risk… more STJ involvement due to the Baja energy becoming more progressive, confluence is in place, Arctic airmass leading in, and ideal Pacific pattern
  4. brooklynwx99
    the 8th might be trending towards a legit storm risk… more STJ involvement due to the Baja energy becoming more progressive, confluence is in place, Arctic airmass leading in, and ideal Pacific pattern
  5. brooklynwx99
    if you have a good Pacific pattern, you kinda actually WANT a strong PV so you can displace and elongate it. if it’s torn to shreds or there’s a SSW and it gets sent to Asia, that’s often not as cold
  6. brooklynwx99
    we have had a few good ones. for some reason, people think that we’re going to get a MECS every time the pattern becomes favorable. not how it works
  7. brooklynwx99
    the setup around the 10th kinda reminds me of Jan 2022… same really tall W US ridge, elongated TPV and Atlantic ridge
  8. brooklynwx99
    the setup around the 10th kinda reminds me of Jan 2022… same really tall W US ridge, elongated TPV and Atlantic ridge
  9. brooklynwx99
    look at the shift the EPS made
  10. brooklynwx99
    I wasn’t specifically talking about you or the discussion in here… just the general vibe of LR forecasting over the last several years
  11. brooklynwx99
    one of my gripes is seeing the MJO being used as a silver bullet, which has happens a ton lately. it’s a factor but it can definitely be ineffective at doing much when there are stronger forces. the lingering +AAM could be one of them for the record, I do expect a relaxation in the pattern heading towards Christmas, but more of a gradient pattern moderation with cold in the Plains/Rockies rather than anything torchy. there’s little indication of that
  12. brooklynwx99
    I don’t think the MJO is having as much of an influence as it usually does, and long range models are having an issue with it by underestimating the Pacific jet given +AAM the MJO is going through phase 4 right now, which is basically warm no matter what. however, long range models had a much warmer and more zonal pattern, correcting to a tall +PNA/-EPO. total fail in the Pacific
  13. brooklynwx99
    the lingering +AAM from the borderline super Nino last year seems to be having more of an impact
  14. brooklynwx99
    GEPS has a nice screamer. if the EPS picks up on it, it might be kinda legit. that +PNA is no joke
  15. brooklynwx99
    could be the inklings of something mildly interesting. very nice +PNA ridge out west with a vort diving in from the Upper Midwest. probably nothing all that crazy but it's very cold leading in and can potentially redevelop
  16. brooklynwx99
    could be the inklings of something mildly interesting. very nice +PNA ridge out west with a vort diving in from the Upper Midwest. probably nothing all that crazy but it's very cold leading in and can potentially redevelop
  17. brooklynwx99
    btw, there is split flow. the STJ isn't raging or anything but there is phasing potential in this kind of pattern
  18. brooklynwx99
    yeah, these fast split flow patterns with potent +PNA ridging can have strong NS shortwaves / phasing situations not even show up until days 4-7
  19. brooklynwx99
    yeah, that's true. I guess a clearer way to write what I meant is that you always sorta run the risk for dry periods when you have a cold pattern... you just increase the risk of cashing in when you do get moisture. gotta take the dryness to get the snow most of the time
  20. brooklynwx99
    basically, yes. all ENS are showing a 2014-15 pattern here after the first several days of the month. we'll see if it verifies, but we're already seeing good AK blocking and +PNA in the short range. better Pacific than we've seen in years
  21. brooklynwx99
    cold and dry is also kind of a cop out for longer time scales. of course it's going to be drier than average if it's cold. rather that than last year's 8" of rain in Dec
  22. brooklynwx99
    we've seen that Rex block look with a monster -EPO trapping a black hole over San Fran multiple times over the last few years. sickening
  23. brooklynwx99
    I agree. the reason why these patterns can appear cold and dry for a time before threats pop up is because of setups like this... this is the type of vort that can easily trend more amped and lead to miller B or strong clipper
  24. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the 12z models have shown some interest in allowing the Dec 1 wave to become more of its own entity, as seen on the GEFS. the airmass is much better and the -NAO is more established, so this is worth watching IMO
  25. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the 12z models have shown some interest in allowing the Dec 1 wave to become more of its own entity, as seen on the GEFS. the airmass is much better and the -NAO is more established, so this is worth watching IMO
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