brooklynwx99

north Pacific SSTs aren’t the main reason why it’s a useful analog. it’s a pretty good ONI match, similar ENSO SST orientation, and it’s a good solar and QBO match. no analog is perfect… I don’t expect nearly the same amount of persistent AK ridging as that year

yes, the weather never changes, obviously

the ECMWF seasonal is actually pretty solid looking at 500mb, similar to the CFS and CanSIPS with hints of AK ridging and elongated TPV into SE Canada Feb especially has the -EPO signal. seems like that will be a factor this year

if the Bomb Cyclone in Jan 2018 was closer to the coast, that would have been the widespread 24-36" event. Juno, obviously, was close as well. it's just a matter of time, really

I do think that winters are going to become almost solely boom or bust depending on which kind of cycle we're in... right now, we're in the bust cycle. true "normal" winters within 25% of average are going to be harder and harder to come by however, I'm reasonably confident that when the EC sees a favorable pattern for an extended period of time, which will happen, it's probably going to be quite the year. if we go into a +PDO regime and still can't get anything going through 2035 or so that's when I'll fully re-evaluate my expectations

yeah, I remember in the 2013-14 and 2014-15 winters when people in the West were wondering if the anomalous warm and dry winters were going to be the "new normal." how silly that sounds at this point

yes, I do not think that there will be -NAO blocking of that magnitude. out of the snowy winter scenarios, 2013-14 with poleward AK ridging makes more sense than 2010-11

2020-21 and 2010-11 are pretty good analogs... you don't have to think the winter will be as cold/snowy as those years for them to be viable they both match up well with ONI, they both have a more hybrid/basin-wide orientation rather than a EP or Modoki event, the PDO was negative (strongly so in 2010-11), and the QBO is a good match as well. solar isn't a good match, but it's not an end-all-be-all for analogs. I feel like it gets overstated a bit, if anything they have enough similarities to what we'll be seeing for them to be included. those years get evened out when you have winters like 1999-00 and 2022-23 being weighed heavily

13-14 is actually a pretty decent analog. unfortunately, so is 22-23, which was a major dud

probably going to end up as more of a hybrid event, but i agree that this doesn’t look canonically EP

this Nina is also on life support with westerly anomalies forecast across the ENSO basin to close out the month... this will halt the drop in ONI or even lead to a slight warming wouldn't be shocked if we saw a cold neutral ONI with a weak Nina RONI in the -0.5 to -0.8 range

I agree there, it is not a perfect analog by any means, but the similarities also can't be ignored. just one analog out of many, it's worth consideration I'd probably take it over the strong Ninas like 1998-99 since there's almost no way the Nina gets that strong, even with RONI

13-14 wasn't one of my top analogs, though it does have some merit... very similar with solar, and the summer pattern / temps thus far have been very similar

the CFS is probably the best case scenario for winter lovers in the east... the Aleutian ridge has much more of a poleward component and allows a bit of a +PNA to develop. I am very skeptical of any kind of prolonged +PNA with the state of the PDO, though this does echo Raindance's 2013-14 analog fairly well

I don't think we're going to see much winter success until the PDO flips, though it seems we're approaching the end of the cycle... we've been in a -PDO regime since the late 90s and these cycles usually have a 20 year lifespan

the farther south you go, the more luck is a factor as well. people don't really like to admit that since it isn't really quantifiable, but it's true

the CFS control runs on WB are just one run. TT averages the last 12 runs... WB isn't "wrong," it's just not an average. people just post the cold control runs

it would be hilarious if this winter ended up good for many people even though there were vibes and evidence to the contrary. I remember 20-21 was like that for the record, I do not expect a good winter in the NE (especially outside of New England), but it would be funny... and definitely welcome

yeah, that pattern at the end of December could easily have produced a major storm. TPV just phased in over the Rockies… I would certainly roll the dice with that setup again

if we are indeed using RONI over ONI, wouldn't a cold neutral ONI reading act like a weak La Nina? for example, if we bottom out at -0.3, the RONI could very well be around -0.7. the RONI was -0.25 at the lowest in DJF 2002, so I'm not sure that this logic works if the cold neutral ONI forecasts indeed verify if we really want to use cold neutral analogs like 2001-02, we would probably actually have a warm neutral ONI around +0.2 that "acts" like a -0.3 winter given RONI cooling things down not to say that 2001-02 is a bad analog by the way, it's not

still thinking we're getting a weak to perhaps moderate Nina, but the higher-end moderate to strong event per ONI looks quite unlikely at this point however, even if we get something along the lines of a -0.5 trimonthly ONI, we could still get a RONI reading that's in the -0.9 to -1.1 range

I usually don't include volcanic activity in analogs. should I? maybe, but there's already a lot to juggle. credit to those that do it, though

i had 1983-84, not 1982-83... it's pretty low on the list regardless. might not even include it once we get into the fall. only really matches ENSO and not much else, but again, just wanted to cast a wide net and narrow down

RONI for AMJ is -0.2 while the ONI is +0.4, so you can probably lop off half a degree from the ONI going forward. tough to explicitly forecast that, though, as conditions can change as the year goes on

I have some prelim analogs. tried to cast a rather wide net and it'll get whittled down as the summer goes on Going with 2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2016, 2013, 2011, 2010, 2008, 1999, 1998, 1988, 1983. Years in bold are doubly weighted. Overall, looked at ONI/RONI, PDO, QBO, summer 500mb so far, and solar, weighted in that order. Pretty happy with the way these look. Dec has some blocking and a more poleward Aleutian ridge that's often the case in initially east-based Ninas. We then transition to a torch by Feb as the Nina migrates to a more central-based look.