brooklynwx99

now, it's another can of worms as to whether modeling will be correct. we'll find out in the coming weeks, though the +PNA/-EPO pattern is moving forward in time if late Nov does indeed feature a +PNA/-EPO pattern, it will make me more optimistic for the +TNH pattern that people like Webb are hinting at

the pattern that closes out November might be crucial for determining the flavor of the overall winter. given that we're seeing a pretty favorable winter pattern showing itself on medium to long range guidance, i wanted to see if it would have any predictive power for the winter i did some digging on the analogs which i find viable: 1983-84, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2001-02, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14, 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23. better analogs are bolded i plotted the pattern from Nov 19-29 (basically just a 10 day stretch in late Nov) and the resulting winter pattern. the results were interesting... most years had a decent to strong correlation between the late Nov pattern and the overall winter, mainly in the Pacific there are years like 1998-99, 1999-00, 2010-11, 2011-12, and 2013-14 that had late Nov periods that strongly correlated to the following winter. years like 2011-12 and 1998-99 were near dead ringers... years that went into Dec with a potent AK trough often had it linger for the winter. years like 2010-11 aren't as airtight, but the Pacific patterns were very similar years like 2001-02, 2008-09, 2020-21, and 2021-22 had a decent correlation, mainly in the Pacific. for example, although there was no early -NAO blocking in 2020-21, the Pacific patterns are nearly identical. the patterns for 2021-22 aren't perfectly matched, but late Nov picked up on the +PNA tendency that would lead to a cold Jan (2008-09 is similar). 2001-02 had a EC ridge that never really went away with -PNA rearing its head early the other four years had little to no correlation, like 2012-13: overall, 9/13 years had at least a decent correlation, and 5 of those 9 were strongly correlated IMO. this isn't a perfect science by any means, though it does provide some numbers to the age-old "when does winter start showing itself" question

this doesn't look to be the case as we draw later into the month but we'll see how modeling does

lol apparently Ben Noll is the harbinger of truth while Webb is useless. wonder why Webb is a pompous ass at times, but he is a smart guy

yeah i can't act like the blocking with -EPO/-WPO showing up isn't a positive sign

i can definitely see that happening. there are reasons to believe this could actually be a decent to good winter. 2013-14, 2020-21, and 2021-22 are all good analogs i just don't think anyone has the balls (including myself personally or professionally) to actually pull the trigger. better to go conservative in this -PDO regime and bust low

near 3 sigma block next week likely provides opportunities for storminess... would watch the 5-7 days afterwards for any wintry chances in climo spots like NW NJ and N of 84

amazing work. I agree that 2021-22 likely matches the flavor of this year the best

can't really advertise snow at this juncture, too early outside of the normal climo spots in the interior and up into NNE. just bodes well IMO. rather see that than a black hole setting up over AK

obviously, take with a grain of salt, but it doesn't hurt to see ridging setting up over the WC/AK at the end of November on longer range guidance no real snow risk here, just bodes well IMO

obviously, take with a grain of salt, but it doesn't hurt to see ridging setting up over the WC/AK at the end of November on longer range guidance

i do like seeing all of the ridging over AK and the WC to end the month on longer range guidance... usually the winter begins to start to show its hand around the end of November obviously, take with a grain of salt at range. just nice to see this rather than a black hole over the WC or AK

this helps

MJO looping back into 7/8/1 in late Dec and early Jan also jives well with 2021-22

it's nice that the MJO was able to cycle through the cold phases. looks like we'll be making a pass towards them as we approach the holidays

people are frequently way too reductive with analogs

it's encouraging seeing the MJO being able to get into 8-1-2 with some strength. the TPV being strong will make Greenland blocking harder to come by, which has been expected

I think most of the heat will be focused in the Plains and Midwest but it will get pushed into the Northeast at times

November has looked very warm country wide for months now… analogs have been very emphatic about that I don’t think it being that warm has any unknown impact on the winter. seems like things are going according to plan

CPK 15" EWR 19" LGA 17" JFK 14"

relax. i just remembered from last year we all have biases, not a huge deal. i just thought it was kinda funny

did the same thing last year lmao

closer look at the ET Pacific for those two years. I'd argue that it's quite difficult to get years about 10 years apart from each other to match up that well in that domain