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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    just a catastrophic modeling fail in the Atlantic. oh my god. worst I have seen in quite some time whatever, though, there was a SECS today, which isn't guaranteed even in stellar patterns. just sucks that it fucked up the HECS pattern, but what can you do, really
  2. brooklynwx99
    ample cold air with the displaced TPV beforehand...
  3. brooklynwx99
    i mean, normally, the fail mode in strong Nino Februarys is an overly oppressive GoAK low, not whatever the hell this is. this makes no sense
  4. brooklynwx99
    yeah i get it. it's been rough. just wait until you see the massive flat Aleutian ridge afterwards. in a strong Nino Feb! i mean, what the fuck
  5. brooklynwx99
    this was late Jan 2011 lite. very similar setups, but that one was colder and with a more potent vort
  6. brooklynwx99
    here's your coherent signal on the EPS... the vort travels under the ridge and phases
  7. brooklynwx99
    6.5" here! can't believe we're going to see widespread 6-12" totals in NNJ, LI, and the LHV (heat island spots in inner NYC notwithstanding)
  8. brooklynwx99
    lol what happened to the ECMWF? what a good event for so many... we needed this. got around 6 - 8" down by me
  9. brooklynwx99
    more than decent, no? nice to see that it held. very consistent
  10. brooklynwx99
    new HREF
  11. brooklynwx99
    all you can do is laugh. I have never seen anything like this with a system of this type. this may happen with phasers like Boxing Day or Juno (Jan 2015), but a southern stream vort running into confluence? unheard of. it is baffling
  12. brooklynwx99
    given the maturing mid-levels in a great spot S of LI, wouldn't shock me to see persistent 1-2"/hr rates. this is especially true given the crosshair signature in NNJ... this is a cross section for MMU showing considerable lift situated in the DGZ with multiple hours of 0.2"/hr of QPF going 6-10" for Morristown, 5-8" for NYC with upside for more if banding ends up strong. I have a hunch it will. this is for colder surfaces... there will be less on pavements
  13. brooklynwx99
    yes
  14. brooklynwx99
    all of this was due to a busted severe outbreak. the latent heat release that sparked the vort amplification never happened
  15. brooklynwx99
    HREF is going to shift SE with the main snowfall axis. rates tomorrow morning are absurd. widespread 1.5-2" per hour rates
  16. brooklynwx99
    there is a stacked, strengthening mid-level ULL south of LI... this often fosters the development of a CCB in the NYC area. we have seen significant shifts today that has placed NYC firmly in the axis of heaviest snow
  17. brooklynwx99
    mid level pass is great for the metro… stacked 500/700/850mb lows with a CCB sig
  18. brooklynwx99
    this is a hilarious 700mb trend. greatest VVs have moved like 100 miles SE since 00z
  19. brooklynwx99
    lol
  20. brooklynwx99
    everything continues to trend south. seems like models overdid the strength of the vort. not overly surprised, happens quite a bit in the short range
  21. brooklynwx99
    you know the vibes have soured a bit when people are mentioning La Nina in a pattern discussion thread during a strong Nino lol
  22. brooklynwx99
    I would argue that the ECMWF is a bit closer to the UKMET than the GFS is. GEPS is also farther south
  23. brooklynwx99
    not the ICON ensembles
  24. brooklynwx99
    the only reason why the people look at the ICON is because it comes out early. it sucks
  25. brooklynwx99
    you are relying on a potent 500mb shortwave here… the ECMWF accomplishes that with a great 500mb pass. i do think that it’s notable that the ECMWF is digging in under 96 hours out
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