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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    there was a HECS on Feb 15-17, though, and one in late March
  2. brooklynwx99
    it isn't, but you have a very potent southern stream vort, fresh Arctic cold, and a potential phase with a northern stream vort. plus the 50/50 ULL. pieces are in place
  3. brooklynwx99
    this is apparently "awful" now. god bless
  4. brooklynwx99
    the patterns? that's easy. here you go! they actually all verified, look at that unfortunately, great patterns do not guarantee snow. they only increase the odds. something can always go wrong, and we have had really bad luck. but you already know this and are being purposefully inflammatory
  5. brooklynwx99
    that third one as the Pacific trough retrogrades, the block weakens, and the PNA rises looks very legit. it's actually the same general process as 2016
  6. brooklynwx99
    this shows split flow, with moist air from the STJ meeting up with powerful confluence from the 50/50 ULL. might not be a very powerful LP, but the thermal gradient could lead to a lot of precip. the 50/50 locks in the cold, as well
  7. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is so loaded. has the MECS signal around the 23rd, too
  8. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is so loaded. has the MECS signal around the 23rd, too
  9. brooklynwx99
    he's definitely a big downplayer, good example was when he was saying the Poconos were favored for Feb 2021... we got 18-24" and they got 30" lmao like really? like yes, technically, but it was not a NW of I-95 storm in the classical sense but yeah he knows what he's talking about. very smart guy. better with data IMO, he can flop around quite a bit on his ideas with individual storms. very mercurial
  10. brooklynwx99
    looks like we have transitioned to a classic retrograding Scandi block... opens the door for an event in the 19-20 timeframe due to an initially less suppressive waveguide
  11. brooklynwx99
    looks like we have transitioned to a classic retrograding Scandi block... opens the door for an event in the 19-20 timeframe due to an initially less suppressive waveguide
  12. brooklynwx99
    THIS is a much better look
  13. brooklynwx99
    this is no joke
  14. brooklynwx99
    you can pretty easily gauge the state of mind here based on some of the severe negative reactions to a run that literally isn't even finished lmao
  15. brooklynwx99
    they don't exactly go out far enough. there are a bunch of trailing lows pretty far south and off the coast. the snowfall mean at 150hr at 00z had basically nothing, as well for the record, I think this favors I-84 northward, but there's no reason why we shouldn't keep an eye on it
  16. brooklynwx99
    then, you have the 2nd! and the 6th! and the 12th... and the 17th....... and the 20th
  17. brooklynwx99
    the weeklies are absolutely ridiculous. there are too many frames by themselves that are pure weenie fuel here is just the 25th by itself
  18. brooklynwx99
    after our initial major blocking spell, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we ran it back. the ECMWF has moved strongly towards another SSW that would quickly couple looking at NAM
  19. brooklynwx99
    hey, that's what I'm here for. we have enough debs on amwx to go around and get seconds
  20. brooklynwx99
    after our initial major blocking spell, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we ran it back. the ECMWF has moved strongly towards another SSW that would quickly couple looking at NAM
  21. brooklynwx99
    this helps. after our initial major blocking spell, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we ran it back. the ECMWF has moved strongly towards another SSW that would quickly couple looking at NAM
  22. brooklynwx99
    larger storms almost invariably occur when the block finishes retrograding and rots... here is a loop of the preloading pattern for NYC's largest storms. some of these likely apply to SNE as well, so it's applicable notice how that Pacific trough remains almost the entire time. the PNA is pretty ephemeral and it develops as the block decays
  23. brooklynwx99
    the SPV and TPV getting torn to shreds and coupling increases the chance for blocking to reload, likely sometime in the first week of March. you'll get two, maybe three cracks at a big dog. we've spun the KU wheel three times so far in the last two years... you'd think your odds are better than 16% given three more chances in that kind of pattern
  24. brooklynwx99
    can pretty easily see the Pacific trough retrograde, heights out west rise, and heights along the EC fall. all of this happens as the block finishes retrograding and weakens... this is the window for that major storm. models would never pick up on a brief PNA spike at range, either
  25. brooklynwx99
    can pretty easily see the Pacific trough retrograde, heights out west rise, and heights along the EC fall. all of this happens as the block finishes retrograding and weakens
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