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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    i'd probably lean towards a ECMWF/UKMET blend at this point, makes the most sense. CMC looks too diffuse and rainy while the GFS is likely too far south
  2. brooklynwx99
    meh there's no real way to know at all of it's one and done. blocking likely resurfaces from Scandinavia given the SPV weakening and the Aleutian low will retrograde. bird in the hand is worth two in the bush anyway
  3. brooklynwx99
    with all of the agonizing over OP runs, we're still looking at a cold, active pattern with a tall AK ridge, west based -NAO blocking, confluence, and a Pacific trough undercutting. the more you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, the more things look the same
  4. brooklynwx99
    with all of the agonizing over OP runs, we're still looking at a cold, active pattern with a tall AK ridge, west based -NAO blocking, confluence, and a Pacific trough undercutting. the more you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, the more things look the same
  5. brooklynwx99
    nice to know that we will have multiple shots in the chamber. sign of an actual good pattern
  6. brooklynwx99
    @ORH_wxman GEFS is still showing the Rockies ridge spike as the Pacific trough retros. block is weakening too. this is probably the most favorable period synoptically for a region wide significant storm
  7. brooklynwx99
    really nice evolution, can see the Rockies ridge spike as the Pacific trough retrogrades
  8. brooklynwx99
    "weak blocking pattern" lol literally a pristine 2 sigma block over the Davis Strait at 300 hours out
  9. brooklynwx99
    this is a highly anomalous blocking signal... we're talking 250-350m anomalies at like 13 days out
  10. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks like this. the OP is out to lunch
  11. brooklynwx99
    pretty weak blocking signal? really?
  12. brooklynwx99
    lol OP GFS has been showing dumb shit for like two weeks that the GEFS doesn’t even agree with
  13. brooklynwx99
    holy crap
  14. brooklynwx99
    there was a HECS on Feb 15-17, though, and one in late March
  15. brooklynwx99
    it isn't, but you have a very potent southern stream vort, fresh Arctic cold, and a potential phase with a northern stream vort. plus the 50/50 ULL. pieces are in place
  16. brooklynwx99
    this is apparently "awful" now. god bless
  17. brooklynwx99
    the patterns? that's easy. here you go! they actually all verified, look at that unfortunately, great patterns do not guarantee snow. they only increase the odds. something can always go wrong, and we have had really bad luck. but you already know this and are being purposefully inflammatory
  18. brooklynwx99
    that third one as the Pacific trough retrogrades, the block weakens, and the PNA rises looks very legit. it's actually the same general process as 2016
  19. brooklynwx99
    this shows split flow, with moist air from the STJ meeting up with powerful confluence from the 50/50 ULL. might not be a very powerful LP, but the thermal gradient could lead to a lot of precip. the 50/50 locks in the cold, as well
  20. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is so loaded. has the MECS signal around the 23rd, too
  21. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is so loaded. has the MECS signal around the 23rd, too
  22. brooklynwx99
    he's definitely a big downplayer, good example was when he was saying the Poconos were favored for Feb 2021... we got 18-24" and they got 30" lmao like really? like yes, technically, but it was not a NW of I-95 storm in the classical sense but yeah he knows what he's talking about. very smart guy. better with data IMO, he can flop around quite a bit on his ideas with individual storms. very mercurial
  23. brooklynwx99
    looks like we have transitioned to a classic retrograding Scandi block... opens the door for an event in the 19-20 timeframe due to an initially less suppressive waveguide
  24. brooklynwx99
    looks like we have transitioned to a classic retrograding Scandi block... opens the door for an event in the 19-20 timeframe due to an initially less suppressive waveguide
  25. brooklynwx99
    THIS is a much better look
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