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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    @Typhoon Tip well, here's the first wave getting completely blown to bits
  2. brooklynwx99
    kinda insane how much the -PDO has been eaten into over the last couple of months. that likely continues over the next month or so aside from the brief jet overextension from Christmas-NYE waters near Japan actually have negative anomalies. who could've thought
  3. brooklynwx99
    wondering if that's a "fake" mean sorta thing where those are the members that just don't really transfer and just have a clipper
  4. brooklynwx99
    EPS has a stronger surface reflection off OBX
  5. brooklynwx99
    stronger coastal signal as well. rare to see the GEFS crap on the OP like this, usually it follows lockstep
  6. brooklynwx99
    GEFS actually looks better... trough is sharper
  7. brooklynwx99
    the TPV is farther west which yanks the shortwave east. this has been modeled horribly so not really sure what to make of it
  8. brooklynwx99
    a clipper over Toronto
  9. brooklynwx99
    this also seems like a snow or bust kind of setup as long as SLP isn’t overhead or east. should get a nice HP filtering in
  10. brooklynwx99
    idk, I thought this was a pretty solid signal from the usually progressive GEFS
  11. brooklynwx99
    EPS with a transfer off OBX
  12. brooklynwx99
    on the other hand, the EPS is slowly crapping the first wave out while increasing the amplitude of the second
  13. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF is closer to an actual coastal than 00z, just too sloppy
  14. brooklynwx99
    I don't see that at all... there's strong HP over the top as the coastal takes shape. this looks like snow or bust with the evolution on the 12z GFS / CMC
  15. brooklynwx99
    PNA is so much more meridional over southern Canada... even though it's just as strong, per se, it's functionally improved
  16. brooklynwx99
    what an improvement here
  17. brooklynwx99
    much stronger second vort on the GFS/CMC. much easier to amplify a system into cold air rather than hope for a cutter in a shit airmass to weaken. that never happens lmao also an easier way to get a storm compared to the 12/18z GFS yesterday where the entire TPV buckled
  18. brooklynwx99
    much stronger second vort on the GFS/CMC. much easier to amplify a system into cold air rather than hope for a cutter in a shit airmass to weaken. that never happens lmao also an easier way to get a storm compared to the 12/18z GFS yesterday where the entire TPV buckled
  19. brooklynwx99
    i'd also much rather want amplification of a strong vort into a cold airmass rather than praying for a system to trend weaker in a marginal one. the former happens all the time while the latter is quite rare. we've dealt with the latter a lot over the last couple of years lmao
  20. brooklynwx99
    like lol this is SO much better
  21. brooklynwx99
    like that is a wholesale change. much easier to get a ripping S/W south of you instead of depending on some massive TPV buckle like 12/18z yesterday
  22. brooklynwx99
    GFS and CMC both really amped up the second vort
  23. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the ridge amplitude lessening is kinda making this more difficult. we’ll see if it corrects back or if it’s more of a definite trend downwards today
  24. brooklynwx99
    GFS had the same idea, didn't buckle in time. it's a day 8 OP run
  25. brooklynwx99
    also the more significant +PNA occurs on the 20-21st which encourages a larger wave anyway. you're talking about another standard deviation
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