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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    the EPS is probably right? but this is a volatile setup and it could easily be messing one of the streams up. no point in mailing any outcome in
  2. brooklynwx99
    also, the GEPS is much closer to the GEFS than the EPS. it's not like the GEFS has zero support
  3. brooklynwx99
    here are the three major ensembles. none of them are really THAT different, they just have different degrees of phasing... and I couldn't tell you which is correct. just going to have to get things sorted over the next few days
  4. brooklynwx99
    here are the three major ensembles. none of them are really THAT different, they just have different degrees of phasing... and I couldn't tell you which is correct. just going to have to get things sorted over the next few days
  5. brooklynwx99
    this is really on a knife's edge. the GEPS shifting that much gives the GFS camp some credence
  6. brooklynwx99
    northern stream is trying more
  7. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks better too
  8. brooklynwx99
    GFS is phasing
  9. brooklynwx99
    GFS is phasing
  10. brooklynwx99
    CMC with the fattest cave i’ve seen in a while
  11. brooklynwx99
    pretty phased here. going to bomb
  12. brooklynwx99
    lol you couldn’t be more incorrect
  13. brooklynwx99
    why would that one very specific interaction be a result of climate change directly?
  14. brooklynwx99
    EPS is making good changes here
  15. brooklynwx99
    they aren’t all that different… can easily get the ECMWF to a GFS-like bomb
  16. brooklynwx99
    yup, stronger block is leading to more of that last NS piece getting displaced south
  17. brooklynwx99
    way more consolidated. this is an even lower than normal confidence setup when even the ENS are flopping around like this
  18. brooklynwx99
    way more consolidated. this is an even lower than normal confidence setup when even the ENS are flopping around like this
  19. brooklynwx99
    way more consolidated. this is an even lower than normal confidence setup when even the ENS are flopping around like this
  20. brooklynwx99
    not all that different, just disjointed. within the range of error at this lead time
  21. brooklynwx99
    I guess. this kind of setup with confluence leading in along with a 50/50 offshore argue against a true cutter. maybe a runner / transfer, but even that will still bring potentially heavy snow at some point in the evolution. especially with a bomb
  22. brooklynwx99
    cutter? the 06z GFS is a cutter to you?
  23. brooklynwx99
    indeed… better than the 18z run as well. disregarding the OP shift for now, though it definitely remains in the envelope of solutions
  24. brooklynwx99
    this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air just a matter of how it all comes together
  25. brooklynwx99
    this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air just a matter of how it all comes together
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