brooklynwx99

really nice 700mb forcing. can see the secondary FGEN banding well on the 3km

you actually do have a lot in place... vort moving out of the W US, anomalous PNA ridging, a weak but present Davis Strait block to displace the TPV, and an Atlantic trough that almost provides a sort of pseudo 50/50 low

this just smells like an overperformer for a lot of NJ… large DGZ, northern FGEN band, and a good airmass these systems love to overperform on the northern edge given the FGEN involved. seems like a weaker version of 1/7/22. whoever gets into this 700mb FGEN is getting 15:1 ratios easily. hell, look at what happened earlier this week with the northern fronto band

most of it was the storm earlier this week not cutting, so we missed the main wave break that set everything in motion. the Scandinavian ridging also crapped out. really bad luck on both fronts, and it's probably the most complete failure on medium to long range modeling I have seen in quite some time. a shame

yeah, there's nothing stopping that from happening

slight tick in the NS buckled the entire trough. these do indeed like to amp up as you head towards game time when there isn't ample confluence

notably so

there is literally no way to know if this will continue until it does. it's just speculation otherwise. the climate is an average of the weather, after all

recently, yes, it has. not sure how airtight that is going forward, though

i do think that this is also sorta cyclical. the western US and northern Plains have been cashing in over the last several years. it's not like the entire US has just blowtorched every single year since 2015-16. the cold has just been focused somewhere else

there is no support for that, so there is no reason why I would do that... there will be opportunities for snow through the 25th, then a hiatus until perhaps mid-March? the evolution has certainly changed for the worse, no mincing words there. i don't just make shit up however, no reason to be an asshole about it, either. i also wasn't the only one getting excited about the upcoming pattern. there was widespread excitement about it. it made sense in so many ways, but the storm that dropped 6-12" over a wide swath of the Northeast (which you persistently shit all over, mind you), "ruined it." i guess it's ok that the classic pattern got ruined by a SECS. one in the hand is worth two in the bush

wave breaking never happened. that stuff is really shaky. sometimes people need an explanation for things all the time, and in such a chaotic field, it will drive you crazy. i'm sure there were some other reasons, but the deamplification of today's storm was the main player we had two wave breaking -NAO events this year, one in mid-Dec and one in mid-Jan. this one just didn't do it because things trended more progressive... it wasn't an issue with the general tenor of the year. the tenor of the year would have given you more confidence that it would occur

just a catastrophic modeling fail in the Atlantic. oh my god. worst I have seen in quite some time whatever, though, there was a SECS today, which isn't guaranteed even in stellar patterns. just sucks that it fucked up the HECS pattern, but what can you do, really

ample cold air with the displaced TPV beforehand...

i mean, normally, the fail mode in strong Nino Februarys is an overly oppressive GoAK low, not whatever the hell this is. this makes no sense

yeah i get it. it's been rough. just wait until you see the massive flat Aleutian ridge afterwards. in a strong Nino Feb! i mean, what the fuck

this was late Jan 2011 lite. very similar setups, but that one was colder and with a more potent vort

here's your coherent signal on the EPS... the vort travels under the ridge and phases

6.5" here! can't believe we're going to see widespread 6-12" totals in NNJ, LI, and the LHV (heat island spots in inner NYC notwithstanding)

lol what happened to the ECMWF? what a good event for so many... we needed this. got around 6 - 8" down by me

more than decent, no? nice to see that it held. very consistent

new HREF

all you can do is laugh. I have never seen anything like this with a system of this type. this may happen with phasers like Boxing Day or Juno (Jan 2015), but a southern stream vort running into confluence? unheard of. it is baffling

given the maturing mid-levels in a great spot S of LI, wouldn't shock me to see persistent 1-2"/hr rates. this is especially true given the crosshair signature in NNJ... this is a cross section for MMU showing considerable lift situated in the DGZ with multiple hours of 0.2"/hr of QPF going 6-10" for Morristown, 5-8" for NYC with upside for more if banding ends up strong. I have a hunch it will. this is for colder surfaces... there will be less on pavements

yes