Jump to content

brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,651

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    you okay dude? I think @40/70 Benchmark is a therapist. you should have a chat with him! god bless
  2. brooklynwx99
    also yeah it's going to torch until the 10th or so but things likely moderate with some typical late-season wintry chances for the interior afterwards. i don't see anything that advertises prolonged anomalous warmth into mid-month
  3. brooklynwx99
    you mean at like 144 hours out? who cares sometimes you complain that people don't like you because you're such a "realist" but this is more grating to read than whatever Tony posted lmao
  4. brooklynwx99
    the thing is that is looks like this a couple days before the frame you posted. of course there's going to be a residual ridge with a full latitude trough stretching from Siberia to Baja CA. give the GEFS a couple of days to push the colder air east. looking at this stuff without context doesn't do much good
  5. brooklynwx99
    well, yeah, you have to look at the pattern beforehand as well. there's a trough in the west and in AK. it's not really a surprise that it's warm in the east a day or so later. again, you have a case with most of this stuff, but this is not a good application at all. that ridge later on isn't even centered over the West Coast
  6. brooklynwx99
    IMO, there are only two things that CC has done that are pretty much indisputable: winters have become warmer, and there is a lower chance of seeing a BN three-month stretch snowfall variance has increased (more boom/bust winters) that's about it. anything else is speculative at best
  7. brooklynwx99
    trust me, I get what you're saying... I just think we need to give this another several years to really make legit conclusions on it. the sample size is just too low, especially for commenting on the efficacy of Ninos at large. we just don't have enough data
  8. brooklynwx99
    I think this is recency bias. 2016 produced one of the biggest HECS in history and 2018-19 was literally weak sauce from the get-go
  9. brooklynwx99
    my point is that all of this broad scale stuff about the state of winters to come for the next decade or whatever shouldn't be looked at as anything more than pure speculation. the declarative statements are a bit grating
  10. brooklynwx99
    lol that is the nature of the weather, dude. nobody really knows what's going to happen. also doesn't help that the two legit Ninos that we had were either the strongest ever or still super. one of them produced the largest EC storm in 30 years
  11. brooklynwx99
    lol dude it is a smoothed +2 meter anomaly. come on
  12. brooklynwx99
    yeah, there definitely is no comparison. there is a much higher frequency of larger storms than there ever was in those decades. LI was also a lot less snowy. unless you guys want nickel and dime winters with 10-20" of snow
  13. brooklynwx99
    the Jan 2018 bomb cyclone could have done it if it was just closer to the coast. was a triple phaser like 250 miles offshore and still brought major snow
  14. brooklynwx99
    yeah we've dealt with worse. this is a crappy stretch, don't get me wrong, but we also just had 2020-21 and likely have some more winters that break that 30" mark in the future soon enough
  15. brooklynwx99
    i think people are forgetting that there have been similarly lame stretches. yes, we don't get the 10-20" years as much, but who cares KNYC had one winter with over 30" from 1969-70 through 1993-94. one! that is an absolutely dry stretch. we have had 13 such winters since 2000
  16. brooklynwx99
    probably best to let things play out. wouldn’t be surprising to see a -NAO form from a retrograding Scandi high around the 10-15th or so. it’s been showing up on ensembles not saying it’s going to produce winter weather, but there’s no real point in ruling it out totally at this range
  17. brooklynwx99
    really would not be shocking to see a Scandi ridge -NAO pop up around the 10-15th or so. if it produces winter weather is to be seen, but it’s something
  18. brooklynwx99
    i never said it verified. it busted pretty bad. but to say that the can has been kicked the whole winter is quite disingenuous some saw two significant events in a week… the immediate NYC area isn’t representative of the whole metro region
  19. brooklynwx99
    some places in central NJ got 20” of snow in a week. stop it lmao
  20. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it'll be an uphill battle to get snow, but it's happened before. 1998 and 1983 both had abnormal snowfalls... 1983 had this in the southeast during the last week of March
  21. brooklynwx99
    you can see the resemblance to the patterns before the 2018 and 2023 blocking events. pretty similar stuff
  22. brooklynwx99
    wouldn't shock me to see blocking return in some fashion in mid-late March. a brief reversal of 10mb winds already occurred, and another is expected to occur during the first week of March. the upcoming 500mb pattern fits that of the 2018 and 2023 blocking events quite well, which were also from SSWs. not sure if it means any more winter weather, but it's something to note
  23. brooklynwx99
    it wouldn't shock me to see blocking return in mid to late March. whether that means winter weather or not is a different story, but it wouldn't be surprising at all IMO
  24. brooklynwx99
    look at the decade before with the 33.2" average and you can see why we likely regress to under the ~29" 30-year average this decade
  25. brooklynwx99
    hell, even that favorable pattern in mid-Jan looked like a good Nina configuration. AK ridge with no Aleutian low to be found. along with the historic cold outbreak in the Rockies and Plains. so odd
×
×
  • Create New...