brooklynwx99

it's looked warm and dry for quite some time. Nov was a very high confidence forecast IMO

going to be honest, I really did think that early Dec would be quite warm with the state of the MJO, but it clearly isn't driving the bus. my guess is the higher AAM is leading to a more extended jet, pushing the ridge near the Aleutians closer to AK and leading to more poleward wave breaking

the PDO isn't really a pattern driver... more of a pattern reinforcer. a -PDO will enhance a -PNA, but the 500mb pattern ultimately drives the SST anomalies, not the other way around

at some point, to change the -PDO, there is often a year that has a disconnect and features a +PNA... 2013-14 was that year, and the -PDO is probably going to end up close to neutral if the advertised pattern comes to fruition not to say we're going to get a 2013-14 type year... something like a 2013/2021 mix is likely the colder scenario for the winter

models are advertising +AAM with is unusual for -ENSO. wouldn't be shocking considering a top 5 Nino last year

really nice -EPO/-WPO pattern. there's confluence as the TPV elongates in the 50/50 region which would lock in that high verbatim

been a long time since I've seen a SE ridge get squashed in the medium range

been a long time since I've seen a SE ridge get squashed in the medium range

been a long time since I've seen a SE ridge get squashed in the medium range

2013-14 has been a good analog for a while. high solar, too

agreed with 3-5, but 6 and 7 are warm. the MJO isn't a silver bullet... there could be other factors at play. I also thought that models would trend warmer in the late Nov - early Dec period, but that does not appear to be the case. CPC likely busts warm on their forecast for early Dec

RGEM is advertising a highly anomalous ~522dm ULL E of LI... would bring heavy snow to NNJ verbatim even with marginal surface temps this is about as dynamic of a setup as you'll see regardless of the time of year

really good agreement on all ensembles for a -EPO/-WPO pattern to form with cross polar flow. want to see this get inside the D5-7 range, though it is encouraging

really good agreement on all ensembles for a -EPO/-WPO pattern to form with cross polar flow. want to see this get inside the D5-7 range, though it is encouraging

really good agreement on all ensembles for a -EPO/-WPO pattern to form with cross polar flow. want to see this get inside the D5-7 range, though it is encouraging

not saying that this is the year (it probably isn't), but with CC, you're going to get more crap winters than normal. however, when you do get a good winter, it's probably going to break records in places. you just have more moisture to work with. 2013-14 or 2014-15 with more oomph can cancel out the last 3-5 years of boredom

this is a bit different than typical wraparound moisture

very dynamic solutions showing up for NNJ and parts of the HV. very good FGEN and lift BL is going to be an issue this early in the year but heavy rates and post sundown timing really increase the odds for accums. hills are going to be favored in these early season situations, though it's best not to mess around with setups as dynamic as these

in terms of what we might be able to expect going forward, the Pacific jet is obviously of great importance. it seems like we're going to see a rather potent jet, though one that's still closer to Japan. it also remains equatorward, which is important when looking at more favorable winters like 2010, 2013, and 2020, there is a solid signal for a more potent jet (2/3 years are equatorward), and most importantly, there is ample wave breaking out ahead of the jet streak. this is for around a 10 day period from the end of Nov into the first week of Dec when looking at the less favorable years like 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2007, the jet extends much too far, is more poleward, and there is much less wave breaking as a result therefore, it's important to see how the jet behaves over the next 10 days or so. the more equatorward presentation of the jet is partly why we're seeing troughing set up so much near HI... if it was poleward, those troughs would be pushing into the ridge or even allowing those troughs to move closer to the GoAK

in terms of what we might be able to expect going forward, the Pacific jet is obviously of great importance. it seems like we're going to see a rather potent jet, though one that's still closer to Japan. it also remains equatorward, which is important when looking at more favorable winters like 2010, 2013, and 2020, there is a solid signal for a more potent jet (2/3 years are equatorward), and most importantly, there is ample wave breaking out ahead of the jet streak. this is for around a 10 day period from the end of Nov into the first week of Dec when looking at the less favorable years like 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2007, the jet extends much too far, is more poleward, and there is much less wave breaking as a result therefore, it's important to see how the jet behaves over the next 10 days or so. the more equatorward presentation of the jet is partly why we're seeing troughing set up so much near HI... if it was poleward, those troughs would be pushing into the ridge or even allowing those troughs to move closer to the GoAK

in terms of what we might be able to expect going forward, the Pacific jet is obviously of great importance. it seems like we're going to see a rather potent jet, though one that's still closer to Japan. it also remains equatorward, which is important when looking at more favorable winters like 2010, 2013, and 2020, there is a solid signal for a more potent jet (2/3 years are equatorward), and most importantly, there is ample wave breaking out ahead of the jet streak. this is for around a 10 day period from the end of Nov into the first week of Dec when looking at the less favorable years like 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2007, the jet extends much too far, is more poleward, and there is much less wave breaking as a result therefore, it's important to see how the jet behaves over the next 10 days or so. the more equatorward presentation of the jet is partly why we're seeing troughing set up so much near HI in the medium to long range... if it was poleward, those troughs would be pushing into the ridge or even allowing those troughs to move closer to the GoAK

in terms of cold analog years, a scenario like 2013-14 makes way more sense than 2010-11

this is a really impressive trend. wouldn't be surprised to see waters near Japan cool and waters in the GoAK warm given the upcoming pattern

the MJO also isn't a silver bullet. it often correlates to the broader pattern but there are times where it doesn't have much of an impact I do anticipate the models to get a bit warmer for early Dec, though it doesn't have to happen

yeah seeing the persistent troughing over Japan and N of HI is encouraging. the PDO would also continue to rise if these troughs were to develop. nice seeing the cross polar flow as well... we've had ineffective -EPOs with a +WPO alongside them in recent years