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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    notable trend to buckle this S/W for Sunday. might as well watch to see if this continues, could be a light event
  2. brooklynwx99
    notable trend to buckle this S/W for Sunday. might be looking at a 1-3” event if this holds
  3. brooklynwx99
    i never see the point in completely canning the majority of a month when parts of SNE just got their first accumulating snow of the year last night. it looks pretty crappy but stuff can just pop up sometimes also there looks like a warm front / WAA light snow possibility tomorrow night. maybe an inch in spots. it's something
  4. brooklynwx99
    this is total ass verbatim. we're going to warm up for a week to 10 days. just a matter of if it holds on through the holidays my inclination is that we break colder around Christmas but we'll see
  5. brooklynwx99
    there’s actually a lot of AK ridging showing up that’ll inject colder air into the flow. it’s really just a matter of allowing the TPV/lead wave providing enough push to drag the boundary south is it a long shot for most? yes. but it’s not that ridiculous
  6. brooklynwx99
    the twitter special. can’t make it up
  7. brooklynwx99
    yeah, tell me about it
  8. brooklynwx99
    I understand what you mean, but wouldn't the vorts also be weaker in the W US if part of it is a function of latitude? why do the vorts seem to be so much stronger in the West than in the East? we're talking about the same latitude... hence why I think some of it is also bad luck. the vort ejections have just been crappier here than there
  9. brooklynwx99
    speaking of disgust, it's always morbidly amusing how when we get a trough, we gets vorts like this: meanwhile, the W US and Rockies get a trough for 36 hours and they get screamers like this: the worst thing is that I'm not sure if you can even really chalk that kind of random crap up to anything more than bad luck. agreed that it's insanely frustrating how almost everything seems to not break our way. hopefully our luck changes soon
  10. brooklynwx99
    why are we discussing the 16 day OP GFS in this thread at all? good or bad
  11. brooklynwx99
    yeah, Murphy's Law still has quite the grip on us. what can you do? in the mid-2010s we probably would have gotten a SECS out of this pattern
  12. brooklynwx99
    even when the jet retracts, the lingering AK ridging will keep Arctic air in Canada and in the western and central US. it’s definitely AN for a bit, but it’s no torch
  13. brooklynwx99
    even when the jet retracts, the lingering AK ridging will keep Arctic air in Canada and in the western and central US. it’s definitely AN for a bit, but it’s no torch
  14. brooklynwx99
    even when the jet retracts, the lingering AK ridging will keep Arctic air in Canada and in the western and central US. it’s definitely AN for a bit, but it’s no torch
  15. brooklynwx99
    too low resolution it seems. could easily be some mixing there is the model is underdoing the warm nose
  16. brooklynwx99
    show evidence
  17. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the ECMWF did move towards a more GFS-like northern stream at 06z. look over western Canada
  18. brooklynwx99
    I think you’d rather want the GFS type solution… there’s much better cold air and confluence in place. wait too long and you can run into thermal issues
  19. brooklynwx99
    yes, the piece over Western Canada that wasn’t really there at 00z
  20. brooklynwx99
    no changes
  21. brooklynwx99
    you of all people would know that snowfall is much more difficult to predict than both temperature and precipitation anomalies you don’t seem to be posting in good faith, though
  22. brooklynwx99
    also, lmao this is what happens when you rely on the MJO too much
  23. brooklynwx99
    considering how god awful extended guidance has been so far, I do expect to relaxation around the 15th, but I wouldn’t lock it in. AK ridging lingering wouldn’t even make this a particularly warm pattern also, if the Pacific jet is stronger than modeled as it usually is, wouldn’t it lead to the Aleutian trough showing up pushing farther east?
  24. brooklynwx99
    also, lol completely poo-pooing the colder window and assuming it’ll completely break down after this mammoth bust is kinda funny
  25. brooklynwx99
    there probably is going to be a relaxation in the pattern, but it’s likely one where some AK ridging remains with a -PNA… there would be colder air in the US to tap into, so you’d just need to drop the gradient south like idk, it would be AN at times, but I wouldn’t exactly call it a torch
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