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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    even when the jet retracts, the lingering AK ridging will keep Arctic air in Canada and in the western and central US. it’s definitely AN for a bit, but it’s no torch
  2. brooklynwx99
    too low resolution it seems. could easily be some mixing there is the model is underdoing the warm nose
  3. brooklynwx99
    show evidence
  4. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the ECMWF did move towards a more GFS-like northern stream at 06z. look over western Canada
  5. brooklynwx99
    I think you’d rather want the GFS type solution… there’s much better cold air and confluence in place. wait too long and you can run into thermal issues
  6. brooklynwx99
    yes, the piece over Western Canada that wasn’t really there at 00z
  7. brooklynwx99
    no changes
  8. brooklynwx99
    you of all people would know that snowfall is much more difficult to predict than both temperature and precipitation anomalies you don’t seem to be posting in good faith, though
  9. brooklynwx99
    also, lmao this is what happens when you rely on the MJO too much
  10. brooklynwx99
    considering how god awful extended guidance has been so far, I do expect to relaxation around the 15th, but I wouldn’t lock it in. AK ridging lingering wouldn’t even make this a particularly warm pattern also, if the Pacific jet is stronger than modeled as it usually is, wouldn’t it lead to the Aleutian trough showing up pushing farther east?
  11. brooklynwx99
    also, lol completely poo-pooing the colder window and assuming it’ll completely break down after this mammoth bust is kinda funny
  12. brooklynwx99
    there probably is going to be a relaxation in the pattern, but it’s likely one where some AK ridging remains with a -PNA… there would be colder air in the US to tap into, so you’d just need to drop the gradient south like idk, it would be AN at times, but I wouldn’t exactly call it a torch
  13. brooklynwx99
    the ECMWF actually made a pretty drastic shift towards a more potent NS. hopefully it isn’t just a blip, because it’s much more similar to the GFS than 00z
  14. brooklynwx99
    you really want to see these earlier solutions with Baja energy ejecting… antecedent air mass is Arctic. wait longer and you run the risk of losing the confluence and a staler airmass
  15. brooklynwx99
    the 8th might be trending towards a legit storm risk… more STJ involvement due to the Baja energy becoming more progressive, confluence is in place, Arctic airmass leading in, and ideal Pacific pattern
  16. brooklynwx99
    the 8th might be trending towards a legit storm risk… more STJ involvement due to the Baja energy becoming more progressive, confluence is in place, Arctic airmass leading in, and ideal Pacific pattern
  17. brooklynwx99
    if you have a good Pacific pattern, you kinda actually WANT a strong PV so you can displace and elongate it. if it’s torn to shreds or there’s a SSW and it gets sent to Asia, that’s often not as cold
  18. brooklynwx99
    we have had a few good ones. for some reason, people think that we’re going to get a MECS every time the pattern becomes favorable. not how it works
  19. brooklynwx99
    the setup around the 10th kinda reminds me of Jan 2022… same really tall W US ridge, elongated TPV and Atlantic ridge
  20. brooklynwx99
    the setup around the 10th kinda reminds me of Jan 2022… same really tall W US ridge, elongated TPV and Atlantic ridge
  21. brooklynwx99
    look at the shift the EPS made
  22. brooklynwx99
    I wasn’t specifically talking about you or the discussion in here… just the general vibe of LR forecasting over the last several years
  23. brooklynwx99
    one of my gripes is seeing the MJO being used as a silver bullet, which has happens a ton lately. it’s a factor but it can definitely be ineffective at doing much when there are stronger forces. the lingering +AAM could be one of them for the record, I do expect a relaxation in the pattern heading towards Christmas, but more of a gradient pattern moderation with cold in the Plains/Rockies rather than anything torchy. there’s little indication of that
  24. brooklynwx99
    I don’t think the MJO is having as much of an influence as it usually does, and long range models are having an issue with it by underestimating the Pacific jet given +AAM the MJO is going through phase 4 right now, which is basically warm no matter what. however, long range models had a much warmer and more zonal pattern, correcting to a tall +PNA/-EPO. total fail in the Pacific
  25. brooklynwx99
    the lingering +AAM from the borderline super Nino last year seems to be having more of an impact
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