brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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this is why I don't like using indices. when looking at the 500mb there's a pretty obvious -NAO on the GEFS
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nobody could have seen this coming!
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lol
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yeah the EPS is... favorable. lmao tons of blocking, well AN precip, and cold
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best EPS run i've seen since Feb 2021. ridiculous mean
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the pattern did occur. just benefited south of the Mason-Dixon line the most. it happens
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EPS has the retrograding block. 2 sigma ridge over the pole
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i mean, wow
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obviously not calling for anything that strong, but this does have similarities to March 2018. can't act like it doesn't. same -PNA to N ATL wavebreak that allows for a retrograde of the Scandi ridge into Greenland. combine that with a MJO pass through the Maritime Continent and a significant stratospheric disruption
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EPS is really ratcheting up the block in the LR. textbook progression
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there's so much going for the blocking that I kinda have to believe it. the progression makes perfect sense. similar to March 2018 with the -PNA, retrograding Scandi ridge, N Atl wavebreaking and a strat assist. obv not going to be quite as anomalous but there are similarities
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i'm really liking the burgeoning blocking signal. it all checks out... -PNA leads to N Atl wavebreaking which allows for retrogression of the Scandi ridge. couple that with a significant stratospheric disruption at 50mb and you're cooking up a block
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the ECMWF actually looks amazing aloft. massive blocking
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i'm really liking the burgeoning blocking signal. it all checks out... -PNA leads to N Atl wavebreaking which allows for retrogression of the Scandi ridge. couple that with a significant stratospheric disruption at 50mb and you're cooking up a block
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ECMWF gone wild after the Super Bowl. full on Arctic ridge bridge with -EPO/-NAO
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Scandi block getting stronger on the GEFS. much more of a wave breaking signal over the N ATL
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Scandi block getting stronger on the GEFS. much more of a wave breaking signal over the N ATL
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i think the 5th isn't much but the 8th could definitely be a solid front end thump to rain. and that's before any blocking gets going, which is looking more and more likely
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that tweet on the last page has the NMME from Jan 8th. like are you serious lmao what use does that have right now
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ENS and OP runs have a lot of chances with the boundary nearby and lots of moisture, even before the Scandi ridge tries to retrograde. could be looking at a pretty active period
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ENS and OP runs have a lot of chances with the boundary nearby and lots of moisture, even before the Scandi ridge tries to retrograde. could be looking at a pretty active period
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just a flurry of opportunities on the GFS and CMC today. active with cold nearby is a good combo
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also, not sure what utility extended guidance like the CanSIPS has when we’re already in February. bordering on useless and that tweet was just engagement bait to piss off people that like snow. i’m sure it worked
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i mean, you’re correct, there’s likely going to be a significant disruption at 50mb that would bolster any blocking from the retrograding Scandi ridge
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-PNA helping to lead to wave breaking in the N ATL and retrograde the Scandi ridge is a pretty classic progression. along with the 50mb shenanigans it gives me pretty good confidence in a blocking episode
