brooklynwx99

EPS and GEFS both show another +PNA ridge spike around Christmas. could be another risk for a storm, would have a much better airmass as well

front end thump

i wouldn’t have posted it, but verbatim it’s 6” for NYC

notice how the Pacific trough has been trending more equatorward with more AK ridging

you often need a strong Pacific trough to get a tall ridge like that. can't have one without the other the trough will knock the ridge down after it builds... there's always some needle threading with these kinds of setups

yeah inland is going to be favored here, agreed. coast can be on watch with tempered expectations at this juncture

the timeframe around the 21st is becoming more interesting as all major ensembles have begun to converge on an anomalous ridge forming in a near ideal spot over MT. EPS has a 2 sigma full latitude ridge into W Canada, elongating the TPV southward I am not trying to hype or anything due to the lead time involved here, but this setup does bear a resemblance to the Jan 2022 storm. same general waveform with a weak WAR helping to prevent an overly suppressive outcome the antecedent airmass isn't as good here, but I still do think that this timeframe bears watching. inland is always favored at this time of year but even the coast can be on watch. just keep an eye on this over the next several days... the models have been volatile with the Pacific, so shifts are likely

i mean, damn. 2 sigma ridge over MT stretching up to the heavens lmao TPV trying to stretch down into SE Canada, weak WAR. it's honestly not too far off from the Jan 2022 setup. obviously here the antecedent airmass isn't as good, but it's analogous

best to accept the LR guidance is without a clue on how to handle that Pacific trough. these run to run deltas around Christmas on the GEFS are silly. just zero consistency. way less than normal

also, it does look like some TPV involvement modulates the height field downstream... notice the W flow in SE Canada compared to the ripping SW flow we're seeing today

@Typhoon Tip here's your trend. GEFS has become much more meridional with the ridging out west as the Pacific trough corrects towards the Aleutians

also the ECMWF shows the full latitude ridge nicely

GEFS shifted back to a stronger +PNA

looks like the ridge tries to pump around the 20th (hence the potential storm), ridge rolls over and warms us up into Christmas (naturally), and then we see the trough retrogression towards the Aleutians into NYE. that's how I'm looking at it, anyway

i wouldn't be so confident in an inland tracking low. is it favored, yes, but the ridge axis is over MT

wouldn't be shocking to see a storm pop up around the solstice as the PNA rises and ridging builds into AK. would favor the interior but it's something to watch

wouldn't be shocking to see a storm pop up around the solstice as the PNA rises and ridging builds into AK. would favor the interior but it's something to watch

yeah, the EPS really beefed up the +PNA through AK. could see something popping around this time

Dec 2022 also got screwed by a TPV lobe phasing with a vicious shortwave over the Rockies. that thing escapes and dives south and you get a blizzard we have gotten no breaks whatsoever. unfortunately, luck plays a large part in snowfall and we can't really quantify that. it's going to be that way unless we become infinitely precise, which will never happen

yeah same. looks like we're seeing the jet retract a few days before the holidays, should allow the heights over AK to recover. jet is a bit more equatorward the second time around, which helps

doesn't seem like much has really changed with regards to the Pacific trough retrogression. going to be lots of whining in the meantime, though lmao

this is the kind of titillating AmWx analysis i yearn for each and every day

EPS and GEPS also shifted the Pacific trough south and west! not just the GEFS being underdispersive

EPS is also shifting the Pacific trough equatorward so it doesn’t seem like the GEFS solely being underdispersive

really nice trend towards a taller AK ridge. went from a +EPO to -EPO in one model cycle