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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough
  2. brooklynwx99
    just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough\
  3. brooklynwx99
    just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough
  4. brooklynwx99
    wow
  5. brooklynwx99
    there isn't a lag this time. the SPV and TPV are coupled quickly looking at NAM plots
  6. brooklynwx99
    this year's PV activity looks like the 2010 SSW events, just pushed back a couple weeks
  7. brooklynwx99
    yes, but I would imagine that it's pretty heavily skewed by the first 10-15 days of the month. the back half is near normal
  8. brooklynwx99
    snowman seems to be laughing a lot. could be nitrous
  9. brooklynwx99
    opposite day?
  10. brooklynwx99
    I doubt it, we'd probably see the waveguide retrograde a bit into late Feb and March. shorter wavelengths also make it less likely to see a Pacific inundation. the MJO is moving into 8 and 1 and is generally a weak influence, so I also don't see any stupid MJO-induced jet extensions on the way
  11. brooklynwx99
    how? there is flow straight out of the Pole here. there's split flow with the STJ undercutting, but there's ridging well into AK
  12. brooklynwx99
    seems like the pattern change is coming, just a matter of strength and duration. with the SPV getting obliterated and immediately coupling with the TPV, I would expect blocking to continue into early March
  13. brooklynwx99
    12z ENS roundup so far. stellar
  14. brooklynwx99
    we've seen a dramatic change towards a final warming of the SPV that instantly couples with the TPV. this would have near immediate effects... not the typical SSW where you'd need to wait a few weeks. you'd see sustained blocking here, likely into March
  15. brooklynwx99
    multiple massive 50/50s with strong blocking and a cold air feed. wow
  16. brooklynwx99
    yeah i’d say the first crack at it around the 13-15th favors the interior, then it’s fair game for all
  17. brooklynwx99
    picture perfect progression here. just shows how the split flow comes together with the 50/50 to lead to a bomb
  18. brooklynwx99
    you’re also getting SPV weakening that’s coupled. we could be in through early March
  19. brooklynwx99
    weeklies seem to be keying in on the 23rd. the fact that you can actually see a wave from the STJ deepen at this range is nuts. retrograding block and 50/50 in place
  20. brooklynwx99
    you’re telling me. wow
  21. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is a lot blockier today. it has a strong progressive bias so it would struggle with blocking due to wave breaking… that often features anomalous troughs to get it going
  22. brooklynwx99
    just a beautiful retrograding -NAO here alongside split flow and a roaring STJ. trough is in the east by the 13th, as well. no can kick in sight
  23. brooklynwx99
    ah. “for about,” not about. gotcha
  24. brooklynwx99
    well, yes, the next 10 days or so suck, no mincing that
  25. brooklynwx99
    NAM shows full coupling of the strat and tropo mid-month associated with a final significant warming, which would provide a more stable blocking pattern
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