brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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if you advert anomalously warm air up towards Greenland, it can act like a block. nature doesn’t care why heights are high over the Davis Strait as long as they are it wouldn’t be the 1-2nd that you’d see a storm risk, it would be more like the 3-6th as the -EPO brings in colder air and the high heights over northern Canada weaken
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you're getting colder air filtering under the block. wouldn't take all that long with a -EPO. the first system around NYD is likely too warm, though any follow up as the block decays could be larger. we'll see. I just like seeing the -EPO/-NAO developing
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omfg
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quite the signal. funny how the torch just gets advected to the Davis Strait lmao
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lol this would be something
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welp. CP Nino?
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if the SREFs weren’t literally the worst i’d be more inclined to believe them -
weaker energy over the SE likely made a difference
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yup, looking like good agreement on WAA into a great antecedent airmass
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i've stopped bothering, honestly. if there's La Nina influence, it's warm. but if there's lingering El Nino influence, it also makes it warm. Pacific jet extension? you guessed it, warm. but if we see the jet retract? well, that's just the La Nina base state warming us up again
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lol relax i just thought it was funny after all of the hyped up analysis. nothing personal
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much stronger trailing vort on the CMC too
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lol GFS is definitely going to be more amped up
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wow, you're getting actual PVA now
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base of the trough is more consolidated
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NAM definitely upped its involvement of the trailing energy this run. going to have to keep an eye on this feature
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too bad this model fucking blows
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yeah, trough is notably sharper
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the GFS is incorporating the NS energy on the backside of the trough more. nice shift
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anyway, the GFS is incorporating the NS energy on the backside of the trough more. nice shift. though I think for any notable snow, you'll need an IVT
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you know, 5-10 years ago, discourse about even the smallest storms was encouraged
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extended guidance like that often overdoes the influence of ENSO. we saw that last year. given the ample momentum in the Pacific jet so far I wouldn't resign myself to thinking that we're going to see a canonical -ENSO Feb... nothing about the current or upcoming pattern is canonical
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pretty obvious trend that's coinciding with the more favorable PNA
