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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    I agree that once we do get a storm, there is likely a transient Rockies ridge that forms from the trough in the GoA
  2. brooklynwx99
    this is for the 13th... I would expect a rainer at that time
  3. brooklynwx99
    now this is more like it
  4. brooklynwx99
    we’re in a good spot. i’d be more nervous up towards Boston
  5. brooklynwx99
    and it’s more than cold enough, you don’t need vodka cold for big snow. if it’s too cold, i’m sure i’d hear people here complaining a lack of moisture or something lmao there is ALWAYS something to criticize with patterns, but it’s worth illustrating potential as well
  6. brooklynwx99
    the stretched TPV migrating to the 50/50 region alongside a retrograding and decaying -NAO is a signal for a large storm, especially when you have a potent STJ involved. i don’t think that’s unreasonable at all
  7. brooklynwx99
    we’ve had a ton of Ninas since 2018 and this is a blocky Nino pattern. the composites from those years won’t really hold water here
  8. brooklynwx99
    we should see IO forcing for a while. nice
  9. brooklynwx99
    RMM plots are FINALLY taking the MJO into 8 and 1. hovmollers have shown this progression for a long time, but the RMM plots have had a difficult time of it
  10. brooklynwx99
    that trough near Baja is split flow... allows for large waves to enter the flow and increases phasing opportunities. there really aren't any ways to criticize this pattern. it's one thing if it happens (much higher confidence than normal that it does), but that is pretty obviously a very good configuration
  11. brooklynwx99
    but why would it suck? nothing is pointing in that direction, even climo by itself would lead to a good Pacific pattern
  12. brooklynwx99
    I think that this pattern allows for a true high-end event later in the month, generally from a potent southern stream vort traveling underneath the vort and phasing, but yeah, you can get clipper or Miller Bs from the AK ridge. I would say that this probably favors SNE rather than NNE for sure, as there can be some suppression depending on how strong the blocking and associated 50/50 ULL get. I'd feel a lot better in Danbury than Nashua
  13. brooklynwx99
    yeah, I was strongly considering that! lmao it seems like we have more confidence now, though. the change is going to occur, just a matter of how long it lasts and how much the pattern actually produces
  14. brooklynwx99
    just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough
  15. brooklynwx99
    just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough\
  16. brooklynwx99
    just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough
  17. brooklynwx99
    wow
  18. brooklynwx99
    there isn't a lag this time. the SPV and TPV are coupled quickly looking at NAM plots
  19. brooklynwx99
    this year's PV activity looks like the 2010 SSW events, just pushed back a couple weeks
  20. brooklynwx99
    yes, but I would imagine that it's pretty heavily skewed by the first 10-15 days of the month. the back half is near normal
  21. brooklynwx99
    snowman seems to be laughing a lot. could be nitrous
  22. brooklynwx99
    opposite day?
  23. brooklynwx99
    I doubt it, we'd probably see the waveguide retrograde a bit into late Feb and March. shorter wavelengths also make it less likely to see a Pacific inundation. the MJO is moving into 8 and 1 and is generally a weak influence, so I also don't see any stupid MJO-induced jet extensions on the way
  24. brooklynwx99
    how? there is flow straight out of the Pole here. there's split flow with the STJ undercutting, but there's ridging well into AK
  25. brooklynwx99
    seems like the pattern change is coming, just a matter of strength and duration. with the SPV getting obliterated and immediately coupling with the TPV, I would expect blocking to continue into early March
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