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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    GFS and CMC both really amped up the second vort
  2. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the ridge amplitude lessening is kinda making this more difficult. we’ll see if it corrects back or if it’s more of a definite trend downwards today
  3. brooklynwx99
    GFS had the same idea, didn't buckle in time. it's a day 8 OP run
  4. brooklynwx99
    also the more significant +PNA occurs on the 20-21st which encourages a larger wave anyway. you're talking about another standard deviation
  5. brooklynwx99
    since it's weaker this run, heights in SE Canada remain much lower, which allows the second wave to amplify into a colder airmass. it's a MECS verbatim
  6. brooklynwx99
    and the result...
  7. brooklynwx99
    first wave continues to crap out on the GFS. should lead to better spacing this run
  8. brooklynwx99
    part of the reason why this subforum has gotten so quiet IMO
  9. brooklynwx99
    very strong ridging will encourage some kind of low pressure (potentially strong) somewhere over the E US. not sure how the first wave will impact the second as the ridge in the west builds, but models are beginning to key in one the second one more and weaken the first a bit. the pattern is favorable for some kind of coastal. the jury is out on how and where a storm forms (if one even does)
  10. brooklynwx99
    i'm prepared for this exact outcome lmao but we'll see how it pans out
  11. brooklynwx99
    yeah the wave spacing on the ECMWF ruins it verbatim. seems like models today are keying in more on the second wave rather than the first so we'll see if it continues
  12. brooklynwx99
    like lol this is nasty
  13. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF has a more progressive first wave and a hellacious vort pass for the second wave. more similar to the CMC than GFS
  14. brooklynwx99
    verbatim it's a version of late Feb 2010 that even fucks over NYC (sorry)
  15. brooklynwx99
    that is true, I generally agree... it has been done before, though. i would kinda argue that you want a bit of a WAR. things can become suppressed if you have a massive PNA ridge alongside a large 50/50, especially up by you guys. that's often how you get the NYC-DC specials
  16. brooklynwx99
    can't really ask for much more from a general synoptic perspective here. 2.5-3 sigma ridge in an ideal spot with a potent vort diving into the Plains. details will get ironed out but it's nice to see the models keying in more on the second wave
  17. brooklynwx99
    can't really ask for much more from a general synoptic perspective here. 2.5-3 sigma ridge in an ideal spot with a potent vort diving into the Plains. details will get ironed out but it's nice to see the models keying in more on the second wave
  18. brooklynwx99
    LOL i think this thread is held to a bit higher standard when discussing the synoptics
  19. brooklynwx99
    given the taller +PNA spike towards the 21-22, I think the wave on the 19-20 likely gets more and more washed out. the CMC is a good example of that
  20. brooklynwx99
    we have had a similar longwave pattern for Jan 2022 and Jan 2014. tall ridge over the Pac NW / NW Rockies, deep trough with TPV interaction into the OH Valley, and a WAR pushing into Nova Scotia. not calling for a MECS or anything but there are similarities
  21. brooklynwx99
    not sure what more someone can ask for at this range. massive PNA ridge in an ideal spot amplifying a TPV lobe / polar vort
  22. brooklynwx99
    it’s there, just south of the Mason-Dixon line
  23. brooklynwx99
    also seeing favorable trends out west for the Christmas timeframe could be a seasonal trend to underdo western ridging
  24. brooklynwx99
    pretty major change
  25. brooklynwx99
    i could see a weaker vort that drags the baroclinic zone south and brings in a better airmass before a larger system on the 21-22. not sure if that would be considered two storms, per se
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