brooklynwx99

thanks! I figure that there's enough people being debs, so I don't like to be one. unless absolutely necessary lmao

Feb 2003 wasn’t blocky, though. this could resemble 09-10, just pushed back a couple weeks. Feb 1978 is also close

with a STJ like that alongside blocking, you’re begging for it

welp, we’re seeing it on the GEFS, GEPS and EPS now. just wanna give it another week but all of it tracks when looking at tropical forcing, the equatorward Pacific jet, SPV weakening earlier this month, and general Nino climo

@psuhoffman i agree with your point on the lack of big storms from Feb 20-Mar 5 or so. it seems to be a lack of sample size… there’s no reason why it can’t happen in a cold, blocky pattern. maybe this is the year we set precedent

textbook split flow that Aleutian low is just going to dive equatorward too

cross polar flow develops quickly. it's a pretty rapid flip

it's a ridiculous signal for that lead time. that would be a strong signal at 10 days, let alone almost 3 weeks

@psuhoffman this is the week after the EPS ends… it is timed up with the EPS perfectly at 360hr as well

people are just kinda losing it. it’s gotten tough to post

the EPS is a day from totally opening everything up. right on time

I think at this point, even though there is overwhelming evidence that we're going to flip into a favorable, potentially highly favorable pattern around the 15th, there's no more point in saying it, because you'll get get trolled or ignored. just need to wait a week and see what's going to happen. it's gotten so bad lmao

for people that want the pattern to change, they are looking for literally any evidence that the "can is being kicked." odd it really hasn't been. everything has been remarkably consistent across all ensembles, and a lot of the "kicking" is just features getting sharper with time as lead time decreases

that's a result of less smoothing. the main features in that pattern are in similar spots

nah, it had been after 384 hours lmao it's finally getting into range

it's a really quick change. the Aleutian low develops explosively

this hasn't been 97/98. there has not been a massive GoA low wrecking everything. one hasn't formed at all, the patterns after Dec have been very different

ehhhh NYC has pulled comebacks like that before. we've had periods where we've gotten 30" in 3-4 weeks. north into CT? really hard sell

it would also be different if you were in NE or even NYC. some of you can reach or even break climo in one storm

I think it was always sorta between the 10-15th and it got narrowed down closer to the 15th. I also think people underestimate how much can happen in three weeks. most prolific periods, when they do happen, don't actually last for that long

we went from potentially insane torrid stretch to getting ready to panic in like three days? everything is still on track for the second half of the month into early March

I think a good amount of it is crap luck. both Dec 2022 and this month could have featured massive storms if not for the random interplay of TPV lobes. there is no way to forecast that more than 5, maybe 7 days in advance, and it fucked both of those high end threats up. it's a shame, but it happens. I don't think it speaks to the potential of the pattern at large, though. this month was especially egregious. that was locked and loaded and the TPV split in the worst possible fashion. it's so frustrating, but we'll be back. the worm has to turn

i’ve laid my thoughts out supported by evidence and we’re going to have to agree to disagree. we’ll see what happens in the coming weeks

why is he just allowed to bad mouth meteorologists like that? without as much as a suspension?

wow. a change of two days at a two week lead time. devastating