brooklynwx99

i do think that the pattern initially is more MA favored with that omega block, but it should open up for you guys. 2003 and 1983 both smack BOS. as did 78 and 58, of course. i’d feel better around my latitude though, at least for the first 15 days of the month

i mean, you tell me… here’s the projected pattern for Feb compared to strong/super Ninos and weak/moderate Ninos. you tell me

Webb called me a biased weenie for using 2010 as an analog a couple months ago on another platform. i’ve been on it (as have other) since the summer. he assumed that i thought that the Nino was Modoki… i just said it could act like it at times, which seems to be true in Feb, given the warm WPAC and low MEI. he said that i picked it because it was one of the snowiest winters in the NE and MA and not much else and now he’s using it for MJO progression on twitter. you just have to laugh, no?

blah and boring? really? i wouldn’t call this boring

Tomer Burg. he’s on twitter

as postulated, the lingering WPAC warmth is helping make this Nino act more like a weak to moderate event rather than a super event. the difference is pretty obvious it wasn’t just weenie speculation saying that this wouldn’t act like a super Nino. it hasn’t, and it likely will stray further as we head into Feb. no wonder the MEI was moderate

LOL thanks for catching that

Tomer is the same way, really really smart guy. gifted with data. but forecasting is a different art

lord

we’re seeing it now. STJ is wide open and the Aleutian low is in a perfect spot. N ATL trough is stable

yeah, the wave breaking is wayyyyy stronger this run. nice to see it makes sense, that initial trough establishes the block or at least tries too, then it connects with the trough ejecting from the SW

perhaps. it's a flawed threat considering heights out west are low. I would rather have an amping southern stream wave running into confluence rather than a ridge overhead, that's for sure. southern stream wave into confluence is a good way to win for someone

also, this is interesting. GEFS is much stronger with the confluent ULL this run. STJ is roaring and a wave slips under the block

1958 was more mid-Feb into early March... the timeline itself matches more than 2010

seems like everything is coming together... Pacific jet is retracting and allowing for a strong Aleutian low to form, the NAM in the troposphere remains uncoupled from the stratosphere and favorable, and we should see blocking increase via wave breaking as we head into mid-December. MJO will progress slowly into the central Pacific and the western IO, which is highly favorable for Feb Ninos. STJ is open for business alongside an equatorward Pacific jet looks like we could actually see a pretty similar MJO progression to 2010. also made a pass through 4-6 (although weaker) in mid-late Jan before rotting in phases 7-1. hovmollers also show the MJO progressing nicely want to give it another week to allow this pattern to start getting within 7-10 days on ensembles, but I think we might be in for it. some of the winter cancel crap was silly

seems like everything is coming together... Pacific jet is retracting and allowing for a strong Aleutian low to form, the NAM in the troposphere remains uncoupled from the stratosphere and favorable, and we should see blocking increase via wave breaking as we head into mid-December. MJO will progress slowly into the central Pacific and the western IO, which is highly favorable for Feb Ninos. STJ is open for business alongside an equatorward Pacific jet looks like we could actually see a pretty similar MJO progression to 2010. also made a pass through 4-6 (although weaker) in mid-late Jan before rotting in phases 7-1. hovmollers also show the MJO progressing nicely

seems like everything is coming together... Pacific jet is retracting and allowing for a strong Aleutian low to form, the NAM in the troposphere remains uncoupled from the stratosphere and favorable, and we should see blocking increase via wave breaking as we head into mid-Feb. MJO will progress slowly into the central Pacific and the western IO, which is highly favorable for Feb Ninos. STJ is open for business alongside an equatorward Pacific jet looks like we could actually see a pretty similar MJO progression to 2010. also made a pass through 4-6 (although weaker) in mid-late Jan before rotting in phases 7-1. hovmollers also show the MJO progressing nicely weeklies are also absolutely HONKING. they remind me of Feb 2010, 1978 and 1958, and 2010 has always been a very solid analog for later in the winter... 1958 was discussed as a good analog, too. that year has held up really well with the warm start, Jan blocking, and now a great Feb pattern lasting into early March I want to give things another week to simmer and allow for the favorable pattern to get inside 7-10 days on ENS, but I think we might be in for it. the winter cancel stuff earlier this week was ridiculous

Judah is failing to realize that what happens up top isn't exactly what happens down here. it's the same as a SSW event that doesn't couple. it seems like the stratosphere is going to do its own thing

wooooooosh

we have gotten multiple significant blocks over the last two years

still skeptical, but it’s hard not to get excited with these kinds of looks. no can kicking and the signal is growing in time if we’re seeing these looks in a week’s time, i think we can say this pattern is real… it would be around a week out on ENS

shift the Aleutian low west a bit and there you have it there were seven major storms in these three years in Feb thru early March

NYC south, really. BOS might have a hard time with strong blocking

there’s a 50/50 on a 7 day mean at like 3 weeks out. like holy crap lmao

yeah, every ensemble has been leading to that look with no push back on the timing. it’s kind of uncanny