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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    that lead wave is actually infused in the trough this time. changes the game
  2. brooklynwx99
    NAM is dampening the lead wave over the last few runs... look at heights recovering across the Midwest as a result. this would help keep the baroclinic zone a bit farther N
  3. brooklynwx99
    can we wait until the winter is, you know, over before people assign it a grade? I don't know why that's so hard for some
  4. brooklynwx99
    your overcompensation in the other direction from a year ago has been absolutely extraordinary to witness
  5. brooklynwx99
    makes sense, possible overextension as the Aleutian Low forms, then retracts and the pattern becomes much more favorable. not really worried about that ATM extended guidance also completely missed this blocking spell
  6. brooklynwx99
    literally opposite patterns, but yeah, no changes
  7. brooklynwx99
    english, please?
  8. brooklynwx99
    yes, getting 1.5x your average in a month and change is the bar for a disaster or not! very realistic
  9. brooklynwx99
    can't tell you how many times I've seen NYC in the bullseye at 60 hours out for it to hit CT
  10. brooklynwx99
    I wouldn't even be worried if trough consolidation is the issue right now. seeing the weaker confluence from the NAM, ICON, and RGEM is a big deal and is something that can't really be fixed that easily if it's crappy. however, look at today's system at the same lead time:
  11. brooklynwx99
    i wouldn't even be worried if trough consolidation is the issue right now. seeing the weaker confluence from the NAM, ICON, and RGEM is a big deal and is something that can't really be fixed that easily if it's crappy. however, look at today's system at the same lead time:
  12. brooklynwx99
    hell, look at what happened with today's system. trough went from totally strung out to consolidated at the same lead time
  13. brooklynwx99
    confluence is solidly weaker and the vort is stronger
  14. brooklynwx99
    confluence is weaker on the EPS... that's the big thing here
  15. brooklynwx99
    GEFS has actually been consistently more amplified, regardless of the OP’s movement
  16. brooklynwx99
    it’s just surprising that the ENS defied the OP. the GEFS almost invariably follows the OP
  17. brooklynwx99
    surprisingly, the GEFS actually defied the OP (shocker) and is more amped with the trough
  18. brooklynwx99
    i hope i don’t do the same. i like to highlight potential, but maybe i should be more reserved. i know that the mets and we’ll adjusted hobbyists can compartmentalize potential from possible reality, but some can’t anyway, seems like we may be in the process of increased trough consolidation. many may be looking at a solid light event
  19. brooklynwx99
    i suspect that some people get all their dopamine from favorable model runs, and when they don’t happen and they don’t get their rush, they collapse in on themselves like a dying star
  20. brooklynwx99
    we need to see modeling remain consistent with the stronger and more coherent S/W for the 20th. if that is true, it’s game on
  21. brooklynwx99
    we need to see modeling remain consistent with the stronger and more coherent S/W. if that is true, it’s game on
  22. brooklynwx99
    GFS shifted towards a more coherent S/W coming off the WC. results are spectacular lmao
  23. brooklynwx99
    for like a week before the Aleutian Low forms, yeah
  24. brooklynwx99
    speculation is fine. my point is that it’s only speculation for now, and we can’t really make any definitive statements on the future of the weather unless we have enough data to do so. that’s all. i also think some regression to the mean from the torrid stretch between 2002-2016 is also hurting
  25. brooklynwx99
    i wouldn’t consider the start of the month great. we had to recover from a torched source region, and we’ve just started a legitimately more favorable pattern. favorable patterns also only increase the odds of snowfall, they don’t guarantee it. let’s get to the relaxation in late Jan and re-evaluate when the 17th and 20th pass also, if mets or others see a good pattern coming up, there’s no point in not pointing it out or noting that there’s high potential. that’s what this thread is for
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