brooklynwx99

confluence is weaker on the EPS... that's the big thing here

GEFS has actually been consistently more amplified, regardless of the OP’s movement

it’s just surprising that the ENS defied the OP. the GEFS almost invariably follows the OP

surprisingly, the GEFS actually defied the OP (shocker) and is more amped with the trough

i hope i don’t do the same. i like to highlight potential, but maybe i should be more reserved. i know that the mets and we’ll adjusted hobbyists can compartmentalize potential from possible reality, but some can’t anyway, seems like we may be in the process of increased trough consolidation. many may be looking at a solid light event

i suspect that some people get all their dopamine from favorable model runs, and when they don’t happen and they don’t get their rush, they collapse in on themselves like a dying star

we need to see modeling remain consistent with the stronger and more coherent S/W for the 20th. if that is true, it’s game on

we need to see modeling remain consistent with the stronger and more coherent S/W. if that is true, it’s game on

GFS shifted towards a more coherent S/W coming off the WC. results are spectacular lmao

for like a week before the Aleutian Low forms, yeah

speculation is fine. my point is that it’s only speculation for now, and we can’t really make any definitive statements on the future of the weather unless we have enough data to do so. that’s all. i also think some regression to the mean from the torrid stretch between 2002-2016 is also hurting

i wouldn’t consider the start of the month great. we had to recover from a torched source region, and we’ve just started a legitimately more favorable pattern. favorable patterns also only increase the odds of snowfall, they don’t guarantee it. let’s get to the relaxation in late Jan and re-evaluate when the 17th and 20th pass also, if mets or others see a good pattern coming up, there’s no point in not pointing it out or noting that there’s high potential. that’s what this thread is for

we just don’t have enough data yet to make actual operational changes in forecasting. models are at least trying to do that somewhat. i’m not even arguing that you’re wrong, but the game of trying to figure out what would or would not have worked like 50 years ago is a dangerous one. i’m not sure if there will ever come a point where i can say “that pattern used to work, but not anymore.” or at least not for a long time hell, most of the KU composites are formed from storms that have happened since 2000 as well. that data isn’t just becoming useless now

the year isn’t even done and the historically most favorable stretch is coming up. i see a lot of people acting as if the year is cooked and it makes absolutely zero sense. people can have this convo in March. why it’s happening now i have no idea

all because some are likely going to miss out on like 1-3” of snowfall. christ

no. it was an analog, but to want to have that year as a bar on its own is going to set you up for failure also, the year isn’t even over, and many of you can clear average in a good 10 day stretch. all of the speculation is silly

if you want this year to get to years like 2010 and 2003 levels, good luck not getting extremely disappointed. those are banner years that are very rare seriously. a year like 2010 might not happen ever again. it didn’t happen in the early 1900s either lmao

i don’t see the point in this kind of retrospective stuff. there’s zero way for us to know. i’m sure there are setups where we would have actually wanted a farther north NS to prevent a phase back then at that point it just becomes straight up overattribution, which is nearly as bad as denial IMO

EPS and GEPS have an even clearer signal. i think any relaxation would be brief, then the Aleutian low develops

see you at 00z

seems like we're moving towards some kind of consensus with the EPS moving NW and the GFS SE. CMC still looking good too

PSU should hang this on his wall

you have pretty much everything in place for a major event. just want to see ensemble support

lol

overall pattern progression points towards a significant storm in the northeast. that's probably why