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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    i don’t think that AK vort is the whole reason. the CMC has the same feature and amps up just fine. i think the ECMWF just struggles consolidating the trough itself
  2. brooklynwx99
    i don’t think that AK vort is the whole reason. the CMC has the same feature and amps up just fine. i think the ECMWF just struggles consolidating the trough itself
  3. brooklynwx99
    i don’t think that AK vort is the whole reason. the CMC has the same feature and amps up just fine. i think the ECMWF just struggles consolidating the trough itself
  4. brooklynwx99
    i can see how it’s bias to overamp and hold energy back can be an issue here instead of ejecting the trailing wave, it remains disorganized and the trough never buckles just a hypothesis. it is certainly an outlier, but we’ll see
  5. brooklynwx99
    EPS is aggressive with the 20th
  6. brooklynwx99
    the ECMWF's bias to hold energy back and overamp could initially hurt trough consolidation. honestly, I'm not really sure why it's doing what it's doing. the CMC and UKMET both have that piece crashing into AK and still become amplified, so that's not it in a vacuum
  7. brooklynwx99
    true, but the EPS could easily show that the OP is well south and east like it did at 12z. we'll see if that's the case again. i have a sneaking suspicion that it probably is
  8. brooklynwx99
    it's more consolidated, but it remains an outlier
  9. brooklynwx99
    it's not THAT much better than any of the other models at this point. it's an outlier and should be treated as such until other models move towards it or it caves
  10. brooklynwx99
    at least charge me rent if i'm going to live in your head, dude
  11. brooklynwx99
    what exactly would you like me to do about that
  12. brooklynwx99
    it literally is an improvement. why are you up my ass lmao
  13. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF is better. more consolidated trough, taller PNA, higher downstream heights
  14. brooklynwx99
    the "clipper from hell" archetype potential seems to be higher than normal for the 20th lmao
  15. brooklynwx99
    I think that this could be a bit northern stream focused, so I would urge caution down here. however, there can easily be region-wide major storm potential with that general synoptic pattern
  16. brooklynwx99
    this is what you want to see for the 20th. the TPV splits into two distinct features... a 50/50 ULL and a digging, potent shortwave
  17. brooklynwx99
    this is what you want to see for the 20th. the TPV splits into two distinct features... a 50/50 ULL and a digging shortwave
  18. brooklynwx99
    UKMET thermals are notoriously bad
  19. brooklynwx99
    I think we're in a good spot here. signal is growing, cold air is in place, and the overall synoptic pattern is great. finally something to talk about other than the MJO lmao
  20. brooklynwx99
    new UKMET is a coastal bomb
  21. brooklynwx99
    CMC is a space cadet right now. it’s still trending towards the other models and has been doing so for two model cycles now i think it represents the western end of the envelope
  22. brooklynwx99
    also, way out there, but this is a good overrunning setup on the GEFS. departing Arctic air, -EPO, TPV nearby, and a potent southern stream vort i can see an overrunning event as the pattern totally decays. although there is a 500mb zonal ridge, surface cold air can easily remain
  23. brooklynwx99
    to be honest, a Niña after a strong Nino might actually be pretty interesting. but no reason in entertaining that until we pass the spring predictability barrier anyway
  24. brooklynwx99
    EPS is more consolidated. i would expect the ECMWF to come back NW tonight
  25. brooklynwx99
    for reference, that 09 east of Georgia is the OP. massive weak/southern outlier
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