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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    confluence is much stronger this run. big shift towards the ECMWF
  2. brooklynwx99
    that kind of setup is an actual possibility with a -EPO/+PNA, undercutting SW trough, and displaced TPV, but I digress
  3. brooklynwx99
    pretty sure the control is just a lower-resolution version of the OP that they run the ensemble off of
  4. brooklynwx99
    the control would be a MECS lmao. northern stream outruns the main S/W and provides confluence
  5. brooklynwx99
    EPS is actually more amplified with the vort. wonder if some of those lows develop later and bring precip in
  6. brooklynwx99
    +PNA, -NAO, and confluence all got better on this run
  7. brooklynwx99
    no wonder it's acting more like a moderate event right now at 500mb for this month
  8. brooklynwx99
    yes it is. also allows colder air to actually stick around
  9. brooklynwx99
    tuesday. the GFS shifted significantly towards the ECMWF's handling of the event. it lets vorticity move out ahead, establishing more confluence. then, it trails energy that tries to amplify into the confluence. this is what the ECMWF does
  10. brooklynwx99
    @snowman19 you're probably going to be correct in that this is a super Nino, so kudos for that, but I think you see my point. although it is a super Nino based on ONI, it likely strays from the typical EP super Nino conventions
  11. brooklynwx99
    at least the GFS has a predictable bias and you can forecast against it
  12. brooklynwx99
    the upcoming stretch (and in the end, January on the mean, in all likelihood) likely ends up more similar to something like Jan 2003 than those winters
  13. brooklynwx99
    we have not had a sustained GoA low like those other years have had. of course, this is a coupled event, but it's not really behaving like other super Ninos of the past further into the winter, as myself and others have postulated. it's not acting like those winters, as the Aleutian LP is weak and displaced to the west. it looks more like a weak to moderate event
  14. brooklynwx99
    just in case this wasn't posted in here
  15. brooklynwx99
    the GFS has always been progressive with EC coastals. like for the last 15 years
  16. brooklynwx99
    the STJ is open for the 20th, as well
  17. brooklynwx99
    the 12z ECMWF has a coastal storm
  18. brooklynwx99
    the synoptics continue to look amazing for the 20th
  19. brooklynwx99
    GFS pretty much caved to the ECMWF with an idea of a trailing wave and a set-up wave that establishes confluence. much more confluence over Nova Scotia on this run GFS and ECMWF are actually quite similar now.. the GFS is just more progressive and disjointed, shocker
  20. brooklynwx99
    GFS is caving to ECMWF and adopting the idea of a trailing wave... this allows for a much favorable height configuration downstream, establishing confluence sooner and encouraging a colder, farther south storm that will be able to amplify without warming as quickly the GFS and ECMWF are actually quite similar at this point
  21. brooklynwx99
    GFS and ECMWF are actually really similar at this point, for this range. the GFS is just more progressive and disjointed... shocker
  22. brooklynwx99
    yup, that confluence is the game changer
  23. brooklynwx99
    GFS is caving to ECMWF and adopting the idea of a trailing wave... this allows for a much favorable height configuration downstream, establishing confluence sooner and encouraging a colder, farther south storm that will be able to amplify without warming as quickly
  24. brooklynwx99
    the nice part is that even if we don't get anything over the next 10-15 days, which is possible, this is what we're likely walking into... sign me up
  25. brooklynwx99
    it's rather transient, though... by the time you get into that pattern, the Aleutian low is already taking shape and will raise heights over the WC and AK. the transition happens quickly on the weeklies, and this favorable Aleutian Low pattern remains through February as HL blocking reloads so, yes, we will relax, but it won't be for very long. tropical forcing is flying through the unfavorable phases on all ensembles
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