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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    that 09 east of Georgia is the OP. just for reference
  2. brooklynwx99
    i'd much rather pull this thing NW than SE at this range, that's for certain
  3. brooklynwx99
    it literally happens all the time. nobody here cares about what happens in Gary, Indiana
  4. brooklynwx99
    i think it ends up a bit too disorganized in the end. odd, looked promising. not a big deal, though, it's one OP run
  5. brooklynwx99
    run should be good. initial vort is stronger, ridge out west is taller. should dig more, if nothing else
  6. brooklynwx99
    no changes
  7. brooklynwx99
    looking under the hood, UKMET actually increased confluence pretty dramatically and the trough orientation is more favorable this run
  8. brooklynwx99
    much better with the confluence and trough orientation
  9. brooklynwx99
    UKMET pretty drastically increased confluence with a more favorable orientation of the trough. good move
  10. brooklynwx99
    GEFS also increased confluence
  11. brooklynwx99
    the CMC has been lost, though. it's completely changed the trough orientation over the last couple of days. seems like everything is moving towards the ECMWF
  12. brooklynwx99
    more than modest. this is a SECS verbatim
  13. brooklynwx99
    this run is going to be awesome. better trough orientation over the Rockies along with more confluence what a gorgeous look we have now
  14. brooklynwx99
    confluence is much stronger this run. big shift towards the ECMWF
  15. brooklynwx99
    that kind of setup is an actual possibility with a -EPO/+PNA, undercutting SW trough, and displaced TPV, but I digress
  16. brooklynwx99
    pretty sure the control is just a lower-resolution version of the OP that they run the ensemble off of
  17. brooklynwx99
    the control would be a MECS lmao. northern stream outruns the main S/W and provides confluence
  18. brooklynwx99
    EPS is actually more amplified with the vort. wonder if some of those lows develop later and bring precip in
  19. brooklynwx99
    +PNA, -NAO, and confluence all got better on this run
  20. brooklynwx99
    no wonder it's acting more like a moderate event right now at 500mb for this month
  21. brooklynwx99
    yes it is. also allows colder air to actually stick around
  22. brooklynwx99
    tuesday. the GFS shifted significantly towards the ECMWF's handling of the event. it lets vorticity move out ahead, establishing more confluence. then, it trails energy that tries to amplify into the confluence. this is what the ECMWF does
  23. brooklynwx99
    @snowman19 you're probably going to be correct in that this is a super Nino, so kudos for that, but I think you see my point. although it is a super Nino based on ONI, it likely strays from the typical EP super Nino conventions
  24. brooklynwx99
    at least the GFS has a predictable bias and you can forecast against it
  25. brooklynwx99
    the upcoming stretch (and in the end, January on the mean, in all likelihood) likely ends up more similar to something like Jan 2003 than those winters
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