brooklynwx99

can we wait until the winter is, you know, over before people assign it a grade? I don't know why that's so hard for some

your overcompensation in the other direction from a year ago has been absolutely extraordinary to witness

makes sense, possible overextension as the Aleutian Low forms, then retracts and the pattern becomes much more favorable. not really worried about that ATM extended guidance also completely missed this blocking spell

literally opposite patterns, but yeah, no changes

english, please?

yes, getting 1.5x your average in a month and change is the bar for a disaster or not! very realistic

can't tell you how many times I've seen NYC in the bullseye at 60 hours out for it to hit CT

I wouldn't even be worried if trough consolidation is the issue right now. seeing the weaker confluence from the NAM, ICON, and RGEM is a big deal and is something that can't really be fixed that easily if it's crappy. however, look at today's system at the same lead time:

i wouldn't even be worried if trough consolidation is the issue right now. seeing the weaker confluence from the NAM, ICON, and RGEM is a big deal and is something that can't really be fixed that easily if it's crappy. however, look at today's system at the same lead time:

hell, look at what happened with today's system. trough went from totally strung out to consolidated at the same lead time

confluence is solidly weaker and the vort is stronger

confluence is weaker on the EPS... that's the big thing here

GEFS has actually been consistently more amplified, regardless of the OP’s movement

it’s just surprising that the ENS defied the OP. the GEFS almost invariably follows the OP

surprisingly, the GEFS actually defied the OP (shocker) and is more amped with the trough

i hope i don’t do the same. i like to highlight potential, but maybe i should be more reserved. i know that the mets and we’ll adjusted hobbyists can compartmentalize potential from possible reality, but some can’t anyway, seems like we may be in the process of increased trough consolidation. many may be looking at a solid light event

i suspect that some people get all their dopamine from favorable model runs, and when they don’t happen and they don’t get their rush, they collapse in on themselves like a dying star

we need to see modeling remain consistent with the stronger and more coherent S/W for the 20th. if that is true, it’s game on

we need to see modeling remain consistent with the stronger and more coherent S/W. if that is true, it’s game on

GFS shifted towards a more coherent S/W coming off the WC. results are spectacular lmao

for like a week before the Aleutian Low forms, yeah

speculation is fine. my point is that it’s only speculation for now, and we can’t really make any definitive statements on the future of the weather unless we have enough data to do so. that’s all. i also think some regression to the mean from the torrid stretch between 2002-2016 is also hurting

i wouldn’t consider the start of the month great. we had to recover from a torched source region, and we’ve just started a legitimately more favorable pattern. favorable patterns also only increase the odds of snowfall, they don’t guarantee it. let’s get to the relaxation in late Jan and re-evaluate when the 17th and 20th pass also, if mets or others see a good pattern coming up, there’s no point in not pointing it out or noting that there’s high potential. that’s what this thread is for

we just don’t have enough data yet to make actual operational changes in forecasting. models are at least trying to do that somewhat. i’m not even arguing that you’re wrong, but the game of trying to figure out what would or would not have worked like 50 years ago is a dangerous one. i’m not sure if there will ever come a point where i can say “that pattern used to work, but not anymore.” or at least not for a long time hell, most of the KU composites are formed from storms that have happened since 2000 as well. that data isn’t just becoming useless now

the year isn’t even done and the historically most favorable stretch is coming up. i see a lot of people acting as if the year is cooked and it makes absolutely zero sense. people can have this convo in March. why it’s happening now i have no idea