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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
could also drift SE. the ECMWF has an overamped bias- 3,610 replies
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- 7
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
EPS is snowier for pretty much everyone. it's literally not warm lmao people near the City need to manage expectations... this is really a NW of 95 or even a i-287 and west storm. would also want to be north of I-78. but seeing the 10th percentile and median like this is quite encouraging. probs of 3 and 6" are also quite high for many- 3,610 replies
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
if we're going to overanalyze OP runs, the CMC would be sick. that massive western vort would get squeezed under the block with a 50/50 developing -
Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
kicker is weaker and confluence hangs on longer. makes all the difference- 3,610 replies
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- 5
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- snow
- heavy rain
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
GEFS is on board -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
2015-16 style that kind of pattern reminds me more of Jan 2011 / Feb 2021 / Mar 2018 though -
Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
GEFS is in a perfect spot right now honestly- 3,610 replies
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- 2
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literally every positive change on the GEFS. better confluence, weaker kicker, and more potent vort
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this is NASTY. jet streak, isentropic lift, and 700mb WAA/FGEN all collocated
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love to see the confluence make a notable shift stronger on both the GFS and CMC so far. increases surface HP strength and compresses the flow so that even a weaker S/W has more bang for its buck AND is colder
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
the shift stronger in the confluence is important. helps compress the flow, increasing uplift and strengthening surface HP- 3,610 replies
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- 5
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- snow
- heavy rain
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
you want the GFS in this spot at this range- 3,610 replies
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- 1
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- snow
- heavy rain
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
stronger confluence on the CMC and GFS. CMC is a MECS verbatim- 3,610 replies
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
what about this one -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
lol -
GEFS has been trending much blockier since yesterday. GEPS looks a lot like the ECMWF
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this gives me Jan 2011 / Feb 2021 vibes. very impressive blocking
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
EPS is mint. 3 sigma west based -NAO -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
EPS getting colder is a big deal. that HP is really pressing -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
yup. certainly -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
this dual jet signature is straight out of a textbook -
Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
ECMWF increases confluence and subsequent HP. moves south as a result and brings sig snow to everyone- 3,610 replies
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
love to see it