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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
the shift stronger in the confluence is important. helps compress the flow, increasing uplift and strengthening surface HP- 3,610 replies
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- 5
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- snow
- heavy rain
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
you want the GFS in this spot at this range- 3,610 replies
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- 1
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- snow
- heavy rain
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
stronger confluence on the CMC and GFS. CMC is a MECS verbatim- 3,610 replies
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- 1
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- heavy rain
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
what about this one -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
lol -
GEFS has been trending much blockier since yesterday. GEPS looks a lot like the ECMWF
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this gives me Jan 2011 / Feb 2021 vibes. very impressive blocking
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
EPS is mint. 3 sigma west based -NAO -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
EPS getting colder is a big deal. that HP is really pressing -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
yup. certainly -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
this dual jet signature is straight out of a textbook -
Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
ECMWF increases confluence and subsequent HP. moves south as a result and brings sig snow to everyone- 3,610 replies
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- 5
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- snow
- heavy rain
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
love to see it -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
yup. better confluence and HP -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
ECMWF is coming south -
Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
this kinda stuff is why people don't post in this subforum anymore lmao- 3,610 replies
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- 7
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- heavy rain
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
good. gets there sooner when the confluence is better established -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
GEFS is going to rock -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
GFS is a certified KU from DC-NYC -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
GFS is very nice. better confluent flow in SE Canada leads to a stronger HP. vort is more organized -
the GEPS is pretty close. the GEFS might take a while. its progressive bias likely hurts it given that the -NAO is formed due to a wave breaking event
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polar opposite of last December's block. the Pacific is a lot more favorable. thanks El Nino!
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
given that the GEFS has a pretty large progressive bias and that the -NAO is formed due to wave breaking, I would be more inclined to believe the EPS and GEPS -
can you even draw it up better? huge WB -NAO, -EPO, elongated TPV over SE Canada and mean trough over the Lakes