brooklynwx99

seems like the GEFS just burped. EPS cranks the -NAO

not bad at all. 50/50-ish feature from the departing 1/3-4 LP, nice southern stream vort, PV in Canada, brief ridge over the southwest, and blocking over the top. looks more like the EPS and GEPS at this point, but there are differences in how they handle the TPV, which is expected at this range. either way, this looks like our first legit threat

overall synoptics aren't bad... BN heights over the 50/50 region, nice southern stream vort, blocking over the top, weak SW US ridge spike, and it's cold enough for snow pretty much everywhere as long as you're north of any LP that develops

if you're going to post the GEPS when it shows a 48 hour long transient ridge in the east, might as well post it 48 hours later when the trough slips under the block

the 00z was the most aggressive yet, so that’s surprising

@GaWx is going to like the new Weeklies. wow

surface cold air isn’t established before that system moves in… simple as that, really

you’d be surprised… look at other sub forums and some of the recent posts in this thread

can we get through the first ten days of the month before canceling the entire winter? jesus christ

SSWs often drop the cold in Europe first. that’s nothing new. we’re getting a 50mb SPV lobe over us, though, so we should see strong blocking develop later in the month as well as colder air moving east. the last three SSWs that we had gave us significant blocking, and two of them were before prolific periods (March 2018 and Feb 2021) not sure why people are acting like this is a death knell. pessimism reigns supreme, I guess. we’re also going to ignore any snow chances during the first 10 days of the month as well?

looking at NAM plots, it seems like any SSW activity may rapidly downwell and lead to blocking mid-month. there’s usually a lag as it downwells, but it seems pretty efficient here or it could just be wave breaking activity. either way, this SSW likely downwells at some point this month, and we can see significant blocking because of it

if we get an anomalous block like that, the whole pattern evolution changes up

i’m liking 1957-58 more and more… had a very warm December, especially in the northern Plains. 500mb pattern also putrid. had a SSW and a very blocky Feb as a result. this Nino also started off very east based and migrated west similar to this one

yeah, something tells me that if we see a March 2023 or Dec 2022 type blocking this year with the STJ undercutting, it could be a pretty great time. the three last SSWs that occurred all featured significant blocking: Feb 2018, Jan 2021, and Feb 2023 all led to powerful -NAO blocks

yes. the SPV lobe coming to our side of the globe is big I'm expecting a colder than average period through Jan 10, a moderation Jan 10-20, and then a potential significant blocking spell from late Jan into early Feb

yeah it's the crappy antecedent airmass and the fact that the low tracks overhead, wouldn't think too much into it

good shot at getting the SPV on our side of the globe, too. don’t see this as a scenario where all the cold goes over to Asia

weenie stuff here, but god damn for early Feb. SPV gets wrecked and west based blocking is showing up

those BN heights over the Atlantic are great. confluence and blocking signal

they usually get the general idea correct, but the nuances can certainly get smoothed out. skill really increases inside day 7. it’s more about picking out different regimes at the week 1-2 range. for example, we’re going from a overwhelming Pacific trough to a AK ridge and +PNA

let’s get through the more favorable window before looking at the next relaxation. the pattern relaxes, but it also shouldn’t be as bad as December was early Jan looks BN with split flow. we’ll see what occurs

i don’t disagree with what you’re saying, but if you’re trying to see what’ll happen more than a week out, there will inevitably be smoothing. it’s more useful to view them as “is this potential pattern more or less favorable than average for snowfall?” there’s no way to look at discrete evolutions there. it’s basically a game of probability it’s not like I enjoy looking at the day 8-15 range. i would like to track discrete threats, but that is nearly impossible at this range. there’s nothing wrong with data, though. more data is powerful. not sure why this irks so many people

there’s nothing misleading about it all as long as you know how to use the data. i would argue that a 6 hour snapshot can be even more misleading than a broad overview of the pattern

i don’t see a can getting kicked at all. also, i wouldn’t call that a cutter pattern. there’s a trough in the SE, and the NW flow over central Canada would force surface HP it’s a split flow pattern… seeing the STJ undercut the -EPO is cold and active. it’s not the same as a Niña black hole digging into Baja CA

the pattern change is becoming more potent and moving forward in time. look at the ridge into W Canada and AK. i don’t get some of the griping. it’s not a perfect pattern by any means, but the AK ridge will provide cold air, and there is a 50/50 signal with the low heights over the N ATL