brooklynwx99

if we get an anomalous block like that, the whole pattern evolution changes up

i’m liking 1957-58 more and more… had a very warm December, especially in the northern Plains. 500mb pattern also putrid. had a SSW and a very blocky Feb as a result. this Nino also started off very east based and migrated west similar to this one

yeah, something tells me that if we see a March 2023 or Dec 2022 type blocking this year with the STJ undercutting, it could be a pretty great time. the three last SSWs that occurred all featured significant blocking: Feb 2018, Jan 2021, and Feb 2023 all led to powerful -NAO blocks

yes. the SPV lobe coming to our side of the globe is big I'm expecting a colder than average period through Jan 10, a moderation Jan 10-20, and then a potential significant blocking spell from late Jan into early Feb

yeah it's the crappy antecedent airmass and the fact that the low tracks overhead, wouldn't think too much into it

good shot at getting the SPV on our side of the globe, too. don’t see this as a scenario where all the cold goes over to Asia

weenie stuff here, but god damn for early Feb. SPV gets wrecked and west based blocking is showing up

those BN heights over the Atlantic are great. confluence and blocking signal

they usually get the general idea correct, but the nuances can certainly get smoothed out. skill really increases inside day 7. it’s more about picking out different regimes at the week 1-2 range. for example, we’re going from a overwhelming Pacific trough to a AK ridge and +PNA

let’s get through the more favorable window before looking at the next relaxation. the pattern relaxes, but it also shouldn’t be as bad as December was early Jan looks BN with split flow. we’ll see what occurs

i don’t disagree with what you’re saying, but if you’re trying to see what’ll happen more than a week out, there will inevitably be smoothing. it’s more useful to view them as “is this potential pattern more or less favorable than average for snowfall?” there’s no way to look at discrete evolutions there. it’s basically a game of probability it’s not like I enjoy looking at the day 8-15 range. i would like to track discrete threats, but that is nearly impossible at this range. there’s nothing wrong with data, though. more data is powerful. not sure why this irks so many people

there’s nothing misleading about it all as long as you know how to use the data. i would argue that a 6 hour snapshot can be even more misleading than a broad overview of the pattern

i don’t see a can getting kicked at all. also, i wouldn’t call that a cutter pattern. there’s a trough in the SE, and the NW flow over central Canada would force surface HP it’s a split flow pattern… seeing the STJ undercut the -EPO is cold and active. it’s not the same as a Niña black hole digging into Baja CA

the pattern change is becoming more potent and moving forward in time. look at the ridge into W Canada and AK. i don’t get some of the griping. it’s not a perfect pattern by any means, but the AK ridge will provide cold air, and there is a 50/50 signal with the low heights over the N ATL

wow. stout AK ridge becoming stronger in time with the STJ undercutting. could be a fun pattern

wow. stout AK ridge becoming stronger in time with the STJ undercutting. could be a fun pattern

if we get a -NAO, i would honestly prefer a slight -PNA. keeps the pattern active and STJ open

the SPV is also getting wrecked. helps blocking prospects as we enter the main window in late Jan into Feb

yeah any kind of true pig -NAO block likely waits until late month into Feb. odds increase if a SSW occurs (which is also looking more likely)

it isn’t, but if we get that -NAO it changes things. not sure if that’s real yet… would like to see more consistency there unfortunately, i don’t think we’ll see any consistency there

this is a gorgeous look

i would pay money for this to verify. luckily, the better pattern has moved forward in time. doesn’t seem like a head fake

this is near perfect. can’t believe it gotta love that dipole signature in the Atlantic. would make the -NAO way more legit

this has been moving forward and strengthening with time

man, that MSLP is classic stuff