brooklynwx99

also, for like the millionth time, northern Canada can be +10 and it won't really matter for us since their normals are so much lower. it's always warm in Canada during Ninos, even in prolific periods

the 500mb pattern trumps things like snow cover. it's more of an enhancer of cold air that's getting funneled in. this year, the cold air that's moving in won't be as cold as it usually is. however, when the 500mb pattern is good like the one coming up, it's not that big of a deal like the snow cover over Canada won't matter if you're getting flow out of the Arctic. it's just not that much of a pattern driver same with the -PDO. the PDO is more of a constructive or destructive interferer. it won't have a massive impact on an ongoing pattern

just a beautiful look here. split flow, -NAO/-EPO/-AO, and an active STJ that's also "real" blocking too. notice how there's a train of storms over the Atlantic that actually block the flow rather than a big ridge that pokes into Greenland

the pattern change has been consistently moving forward in time. i don't see that happening here

also notice how the source region is fundamentally different once into the New Year... we're getting air from AK and the Arctic rather than the Pacific. follow the streamlines

looks like our first crack at something might be showing up around the 3rd or so? vort undercuts the -EPO ridge with a trough in SE Canada. nice split flow pattern

also, notice that the source region has gone from the Pacific to northern Canada, AK, and the Arctic circle. follow the streamlines

also, notice that the source region has gone from the Pacific to northern Canada, AK, and the Arctic circle. follow the streamlines

here's our first real crack at something IMO. vort sneaks under the EPO ridge with troughing in SE Canada. split flow FTW

here's our first real crack at something IMO. vort sneaks under the EPO ridge with troughing in SE Canada. split flow FTW

March is more of a winter month than December. more like 20% over IMO

could be, yes. counts all the same

the strengthening of the Pacific jet earlier this year was due to a EAMT that models missed. I don't see anything like that coming up right now. models are pretty neutral on EAMT right now it will also be difficult to get a +EPO for the rest of the month given that Jan likely begins solidly -EPO. sure, it's possible, but it would take some doing

it would be temporary and not of the same strength as we've seen over the last few years. could get some overrunning type events if the EPO is still negative like it shows there

even that first look is serviceable since the Atlantic looks nice. one would even argue that you'd want a slight -PNA with a -NAO

also, you don't need an Arctic cold outbreak for it to snow in an active pattern in early to mid-Jan. you just need it near to slightly BN, which is what ensembles have for the beginning of the month. the snow cover stuff is a concern, but if air is coming out of AK and northern Canada it will be cold enough for us could that change later on towards the end of the month? perhaps, but that's way out there and a -NAO can pop for all we know

those 5 day anomaly maps include the 27th and 28th, which is before the cutter and that warm shot has been trending warmer due to better ensemble agreement. it's pretty misleading. if they wanted to show a can kick, they should have shown Dec 30 onwards, not what they showed here. afterwards, the pattern still remains the same also, Indian Ocean forcing in El Nino Januarys is cold

the source region drastically improves, though. instead of a Pacific onslaught, you're getting air out of AK / northern Canada and split flow underneath. it's a completely different pattern

a SSW could give us a rockin Feb if it verified

those aren't of much use... they're 5 day means that start on the 27th, which includes the torch ahead of the cutter. that warm surge has trended stronger the overall 500mb pattern change is still moving forward in time. also, you need the 500mb change before any snow can result. don't wanna put the cart before the horse

those are heights, not thicknesses

what? because the snowfall mean doesn't look great? the pattern progression is moving along as expected

looks good as always

this timeframe has been cooked for a while now... it's more what happens around NYE and beyond as heights over AK rise and polar flow gets established

GEFS is really nice split flow, hints of a -NAO, and more than cold enough here with a trough in the SE