brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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could be, yes. counts all the same
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the strengthening of the Pacific jet earlier this year was due to a EAMT that models missed. I don't see anything like that coming up right now. models are pretty neutral on EAMT right now it will also be difficult to get a +EPO for the rest of the month given that Jan likely begins solidly -EPO. sure, it's possible, but it would take some doing
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it would be temporary and not of the same strength as we've seen over the last few years. could get some overrunning type events if the EPO is still negative like it shows there
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even that first look is serviceable since the Atlantic looks nice. one would even argue that you'd want a slight -PNA with a -NAO
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also, you don't need an Arctic cold outbreak for it to snow in an active pattern in early to mid-Jan. you just need it near to slightly BN, which is what ensembles have for the beginning of the month. the snow cover stuff is a concern, but if air is coming out of AK and northern Canada it will be cold enough for us could that change later on towards the end of the month? perhaps, but that's way out there and a -NAO can pop for all we know
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those 5 day anomaly maps include the 27th and 28th, which is before the cutter and that warm shot has been trending warmer due to better ensemble agreement. it's pretty misleading. if they wanted to show a can kick, they should have shown Dec 30 onwards, not what they showed here. afterwards, the pattern still remains the same also, Indian Ocean forcing in El Nino Januarys is cold
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the source region drastically improves, though. instead of a Pacific onslaught, you're getting air out of AK / northern Canada and split flow underneath. it's a completely different pattern
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a SSW could give us a rockin Feb if it verified
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those aren't of much use... they're 5 day means that start on the 27th, which includes the torch ahead of the cutter. that warm surge has trended stronger the overall 500mb pattern change is still moving forward in time. also, you need the 500mb change before any snow can result. don't wanna put the cart before the horse
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those are heights, not thicknesses
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what? because the snowfall mean doesn't look great? the pattern progression is moving along as expected
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looks good as always
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this timeframe has been cooked for a while now... it's more what happens around NYE and beyond as heights over AK rise and polar flow gets established
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GEFS is really nice split flow, hints of a -NAO, and more than cold enough here with a trough in the SE
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notice how nobody mentioned the CMC
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that trend towards more of a +PNA as we creep into the more standard long range is also the exact opposite of what we saw last year. makes sense given that we're in a Nino now
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changes are moving forward in time. if anything, the Canadian pattern has trended better as we've moved closer. don't see a can kick here
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this pattern change is moving forward in time and becoming more favorable. exactly what we want to see
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yup. this run has the works: Arctic ridge bridge, -NAO, -EPO, -AO, split flow, cross polar flow, 50/50 ULL, TPV in southern Canada, and a potent southern stream wave
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the Pacific is night and day from last year. not even close. wave breaking near the Aleutians should periodically pump ridging into AK
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what a weenie pattern. the -NAO is a game changer if it's real. goes from cold and active to bigger storms quickly the split flow with vorts undercutting the -EPO is also great to see. all around really nice stuff
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contender for OP run of the year. my god
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yeah, I mean workable with some actual potential, not anything crazy
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also, a warm Canada doesn't mean that it can't be cold here. it's a silly argument. +10 up there can be -5 down here... the GEFS shows that well. this is often the case in El Nino winters. Feb 2010 is actually a glaring example. Canada was absolutely blowtorched and BWI got 50" that month
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idk man, does this not look like a massive change? the pattern is fundamentally different in the Pacific. you go from an AK trough regime into a AK ridge regime
