brooklynwx99

HP is in a good spot... this is why having the NW flow from the -EPO ridge is important. it's not the same as a typical Nina -PNA. LP over the 50/50 region too

pretty classic split flow showing up too. fun pattern

pretty classic split flow showing up too. fun pattern

then we get to the KU Feb pattern lmao

what does this have anything to do with the beginning of the month? that's for late January I agree that we may see -PNA periods mid to late month as the jet retracts, but i wouldn't say that it's favored for the whole month

a trough undercutting a -EPO is not the same pattern as a traditional -PNA. they're two different patterns. early Jan looks more like active split flow with AN heights in northern Canada... that isn't really a -PNA February 2023 is more of a typical -PNA

yes, exactly. I like where we are headed. seems to be legit

the cold is moving forward and strengthening with time

this looks fun lmao

i mean, you want AK and Arctic ridging to displace air, and if there is ridging in those areas, it is going to be above normal hell, if I could have it my way, I would want the North Pole +30 degrees to get all that colder air out and into the US

i know that this is like way out there, even on an ENS mean, but seeing 500mb patterns like this warms my heart

also, for like the millionth time, northern Canada can be +10 and it won't really matter for us since their normals are so much lower. it's always warm in Canada during Ninos, even in prolific periods

the 500mb pattern trumps things like snow cover. it's more of an enhancer of cold air that's getting funneled in. this year, the cold air that's moving in won't be as cold as it usually is. however, when the 500mb pattern is good like the one coming up, it's not that big of a deal like the snow cover over Canada won't matter if you're getting flow out of the Arctic. it's just not that much of a pattern driver same with the -PDO. the PDO is more of a constructive or destructive interferer. it won't have a massive impact on an ongoing pattern

just a beautiful look here. split flow, -NAO/-EPO/-AO, and an active STJ that's also "real" blocking too. notice how there's a train of storms over the Atlantic that actually block the flow rather than a big ridge that pokes into Greenland

the pattern change has been consistently moving forward in time. i don't see that happening here

also notice how the source region is fundamentally different once into the New Year... we're getting air from AK and the Arctic rather than the Pacific. follow the streamlines

looks like our first crack at something might be showing up around the 3rd or so? vort undercuts the -EPO ridge with a trough in SE Canada. nice split flow pattern

also, notice that the source region has gone from the Pacific to northern Canada, AK, and the Arctic circle. follow the streamlines

also, notice that the source region has gone from the Pacific to northern Canada, AK, and the Arctic circle. follow the streamlines

here's our first real crack at something IMO. vort sneaks under the EPO ridge with troughing in SE Canada. split flow FTW

here's our first real crack at something IMO. vort sneaks under the EPO ridge with troughing in SE Canada. split flow FTW

March is more of a winter month than December. more like 20% over IMO

could be, yes. counts all the same

the strengthening of the Pacific jet earlier this year was due to a EAMT that models missed. I don't see anything like that coming up right now. models are pretty neutral on EAMT right now it will also be difficult to get a +EPO for the rest of the month given that Jan likely begins solidly -EPO. sure, it's possible, but it would take some doing