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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    CMC is trying but failing
  2. brooklynwx99
    it wasn't lucky. the pattern before that storm was a classic KU preloading pattern
  3. brooklynwx99
    wow. switch totally flipped
  4. brooklynwx99
    the ICON isn't even that different from the GFS at the same lead time, it just retros the block a bit more and allows the TPV in to phase. razor thin margins
  5. brooklynwx99
    thanks! I figure that there's enough people being debs, so I don't like to be one. unless absolutely necessary lmao
  6. brooklynwx99
    Feb 2003 wasn’t blocky, though. this could resemble 09-10, just pushed back a couple weeks. Feb 1978 is also close
  7. brooklynwx99
    with a STJ like that alongside blocking, you’re begging for it
  8. brooklynwx99
    welp, we’re seeing it on the GEFS, GEPS and EPS now. just wanna give it another week but all of it tracks when looking at tropical forcing, the equatorward Pacific jet, SPV weakening earlier this month, and general Nino climo
  9. brooklynwx99
    @psuhoffman i agree with your point on the lack of big storms from Feb 20-Mar 5 or so. it seems to be a lack of sample size… there’s no reason why it can’t happen in a cold, blocky pattern. maybe this is the year we set precedent
  10. brooklynwx99
    textbook split flow that Aleutian low is just going to dive equatorward too
  11. brooklynwx99
    cross polar flow develops quickly. it's a pretty rapid flip
  12. brooklynwx99
    it's a ridiculous signal for that lead time. that would be a strong signal at 10 days, let alone almost 3 weeks
  13. brooklynwx99
    @psuhoffman this is the week after the EPS ends… it is timed up with the EPS perfectly at 360hr as well
  14. brooklynwx99
    people are just kinda losing it. it’s gotten tough to post
  15. brooklynwx99
    the EPS is a day from totally opening everything up. right on time
  16. brooklynwx99
    I think at this point, even though there is overwhelming evidence that we're going to flip into a favorable, potentially highly favorable pattern around the 15th, there's no more point in saying it, because you'll get get trolled or ignored. just need to wait a week and see what's going to happen. it's gotten so bad lmao
  17. brooklynwx99
    for people that want the pattern to change, they are looking for literally any evidence that the "can is being kicked." odd it really hasn't been. everything has been remarkably consistent across all ensembles, and a lot of the "kicking" is just features getting sharper with time as lead time decreases
  18. brooklynwx99
    that's a result of less smoothing. the main features in that pattern are in similar spots
  19. brooklynwx99
    nah, it had been after 384 hours lmao it's finally getting into range
  20. brooklynwx99
    it's a really quick change. the Aleutian low develops explosively
  21. brooklynwx99
    this hasn't been 97/98. there has not been a massive GoA low wrecking everything. one hasn't formed at all, the patterns after Dec have been very different
  22. brooklynwx99
    ehhhh NYC has pulled comebacks like that before. we've had periods where we've gotten 30" in 3-4 weeks. north into CT? really hard sell
  23. brooklynwx99
    it would also be different if you were in NE or even NYC. some of you can reach or even break climo in one storm
  24. brooklynwx99
    I think it was always sorta between the 10-15th and it got narrowed down closer to the 15th. I also think people underestimate how much can happen in three weeks. most prolific periods, when they do happen, don't actually last for that long
  25. brooklynwx99
    we went from potentially insane torrid stretch to getting ready to panic in like three days? everything is still on track for the second half of the month into early March
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