brooklynwx99

yeah, but the point that @ORH_wxman is trying to make is that that's not how persistence forecasting even really works persistence forecasting implies that the pattern is persistent. the persistence isn't coming from a lack of snow (or wealth of snow)

yes. 8 or 9 times out of 10 you get something with this kind of pattern. got unlucky

this is pretty clear cut

talk about being hostile lmao

this pattern is about as far from last year's at it can possibly be. persistence doesn't really make any sense here

just a parade of coastals

i love how it’s always what I post as if: 1) others don’t post the same stuff. other well respected mets, too! and 2) as if any of us have control over the weather anyway

getting bump trolled by a five-posted poster facepalming because I'm using long range ensembles over OP runs. we are in the fucking sunken place

anecdotal. every single meteorology class in the country that teaches medium and long range forecasting stresses the importance of ensembles if you're arguing that OP runs are more skillful than ensembles at range, every meteorologist here would disagree. it's just wrong

and yeah the EPS looks great. hopefully it has a clue

so now we're taking LR OP runs over their respective ensemble means? why?

you don't really need massive changes. you just need the jet to relax... that should occur

favorable after NYE? probably like 6 or 7/10. would probably last through mid-month before a relaxation as the MJO wave moving through the more favorable phases craps out. even if it's not super favorable, which is possible if the jet remains on steroids for some reason (nothing shows this) I highly doubt it'll be as crappy as the pattern now. the jet shouldn't be as strong it's not a lock or anything but I think that once the jet relaxes, which it will, heights recover into AK and we get a much better source region

also, the timeframe before Christmas was never supposed to look good. not sure where that expectation even came from. maybe it did a couple of weeks ago but that's old news at this point. it's been Christmas into NYE for the transition into a more favorable pattern and that is on track

you would put more stock in a day 10 OP than a day 10-15 ensemble mean? why? that's like putting more faith in a random member than the mean. that won't work

they didn't. they actually look better for the end of the month

have we gone towards looking at shitty OP runs to cancel winter now? and ignoring the good ones? so weird

the GEPS and EPS put the GEFS to shame. really nice seeing heights in AK flip positive, giving us our all-important -EPO. no more Pacific air issues EPS is the best looking in the Atlantic, though. BN heights over Nova Scotia and AN heights nosing into Greenland

i also love seeing the split flow and Pacific wave breaking lead to +PNA. that’s a recipe for big storms

i expect another significant blocking spell at some point. probably late in the winter. i’d be surprised if there wasn’t another one

you don’t really need deep negative anomalies to get a big storm or two. just needs to be cold enough

makes sense given the retrogression of the AK trough as the +EAMT loses effect

GEPS looks pretty great. hopefully we can get a wavebreak to move that ridge closer to Greenland but this is still more than enough. heights over AK have recovered and colder than average air has filtered in alongside AN precip makes sense given the retrogression of the AK trough as the +EAMT loses effect

GEPS looks pretty great. hopefully we can get a wavebreak to move that ridge closer to Greenland but this is still more than enough. heights over AK have recovered and colder than average air has filtered in alongside AN precip

finally no more Niña BS either… MJO is now moving into typical dateline-western IO phases