brooklynwx99

if we get a -NAO, i would honestly prefer a slight -PNA. keeps the pattern active and STJ open

the SPV is also getting wrecked. helps blocking prospects as we enter the main window in late Jan into Feb

yeah any kind of true pig -NAO block likely waits until late month into Feb. odds increase if a SSW occurs (which is also looking more likely)

it isn’t, but if we get that -NAO it changes things. not sure if that’s real yet… would like to see more consistency there unfortunately, i don’t think we’ll see any consistency there

this is a gorgeous look

i would pay money for this to verify. luckily, the better pattern has moved forward in time. doesn’t seem like a head fake

this is near perfect. can’t believe it gotta love that dipole signature in the Atlantic. would make the -NAO way more legit

this has been moving forward and strengthening with time

man, that MSLP is classic stuff

drool worthy pattern

literally the most pessimistic takes possible

HP is in a good spot... this is why having the NW flow from the -EPO ridge is important. it's not the same as a typical Nina -PNA. LP over the 50/50 region too

pretty classic split flow showing up too. fun pattern

pretty classic split flow showing up too. fun pattern

then we get to the KU Feb pattern lmao

what does this have anything to do with the beginning of the month? that's for late January I agree that we may see -PNA periods mid to late month as the jet retracts, but i wouldn't say that it's favored for the whole month

a trough undercutting a -EPO is not the same pattern as a traditional -PNA. they're two different patterns. early Jan looks more like active split flow with AN heights in northern Canada... that isn't really a -PNA February 2023 is more of a typical -PNA

yes, exactly. I like where we are headed. seems to be legit

the cold is moving forward and strengthening with time

this looks fun lmao

i mean, you want AK and Arctic ridging to displace air, and if there is ridging in those areas, it is going to be above normal hell, if I could have it my way, I would want the North Pole +30 degrees to get all that colder air out and into the US

i know that this is like way out there, even on an ENS mean, but seeing 500mb patterns like this warms my heart

also, for like the millionth time, northern Canada can be +10 and it won't really matter for us since their normals are so much lower. it's always warm in Canada during Ninos, even in prolific periods

the 500mb pattern trumps things like snow cover. it's more of an enhancer of cold air that's getting funneled in. this year, the cold air that's moving in won't be as cold as it usually is. however, when the 500mb pattern is good like the one coming up, it's not that big of a deal like the snow cover over Canada won't matter if you're getting flow out of the Arctic. it's just not that much of a pattern driver same with the -PDO. the PDO is more of a constructive or destructive interferer. it won't have a massive impact on an ongoing pattern