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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    speculation is fine. my point is that it’s only speculation for now, and we can’t really make any definitive statements on the future of the weather unless we have enough data to do so. that’s all. i also think some regression to the mean from the torrid stretch between 2002-2016 is also hurting
  2. brooklynwx99
    i wouldn’t consider the start of the month great. we had to recover from a torched source region, and we’ve just started a legitimately more favorable pattern. favorable patterns also only increase the odds of snowfall, they don’t guarantee it. let’s get to the relaxation in late Jan and re-evaluate when the 17th and 20th pass also, if mets or others see a good pattern coming up, there’s no point in not pointing it out or noting that there’s high potential. that’s what this thread is for
  3. brooklynwx99
    we just don’t have enough data yet to make actual operational changes in forecasting. models are at least trying to do that somewhat. i’m not even arguing that you’re wrong, but the game of trying to figure out what would or would not have worked like 50 years ago is a dangerous one. i’m not sure if there will ever come a point where i can say “that pattern used to work, but not anymore.” or at least not for a long time hell, most of the KU composites are formed from storms that have happened since 2000 as well. that data isn’t just becoming useless now
  4. brooklynwx99
    the year isn’t even done and the historically most favorable stretch is coming up. i see a lot of people acting as if the year is cooked and it makes absolutely zero sense. people can have this convo in March. why it’s happening now i have no idea
  5. brooklynwx99
    all because some are likely going to miss out on like 1-3” of snowfall. christ
  6. brooklynwx99
    no. it was an analog, but to want to have that year as a bar on its own is going to set you up for failure also, the year isn’t even over, and many of you can clear average in a good 10 day stretch. all of the speculation is silly
  7. brooklynwx99
    if you want this year to get to years like 2010 and 2003 levels, good luck not getting extremely disappointed. those are banner years that are very rare seriously. a year like 2010 might not happen ever again. it didn’t happen in the early 1900s either lmao
  8. brooklynwx99
    i don’t see the point in this kind of retrospective stuff. there’s zero way for us to know. i’m sure there are setups where we would have actually wanted a farther north NS to prevent a phase back then at that point it just becomes straight up overattribution, which is nearly as bad as denial IMO
  9. brooklynwx99
    EPS and GEPS have an even clearer signal. i think any relaxation would be brief, then the Aleutian low develops
  10. brooklynwx99
    see you at 00z
  11. brooklynwx99
    seems like we're moving towards some kind of consensus with the EPS moving NW and the GFS SE. CMC still looking good too
  12. brooklynwx99
    PSU should hang this on his wall
  13. brooklynwx99
    you have pretty much everything in place for a major event. just want to see ensemble support
  14. brooklynwx99
    lol
  15. brooklynwx99
    overall pattern progression points towards a significant storm in the northeast. that's probably why
  16. brooklynwx99
    well, the ECMWF is going to do the thing for the 20th
  17. brooklynwx99
    less suppressive over the lakes... more of the vort is hung back. this was a good step
  18. brooklynwx99
    models may be in the process of converging on some kind of consensus with the ECMWF ticking NW and the GFS / CMC moving a bit SE
  19. brooklynwx99
    less suppressive over the lakes... more of the vort is hung back. this was a good step
  20. brooklynwx99
    looks better. more emphasis on the trailing vort rather than that initial piece in the Midwest. heights higher over the east
  21. brooklynwx99
    rent free
  22. brooklynwx99
    GFS and CMC have the blueprint
  23. brooklynwx99
    lol
  24. brooklynwx99
    that setup for the 20th it has is wild lmao
  25. brooklynwx99
    the GFS still isn't really like the ECMWF. the evolution is the same as the 00/06z runs, but it's just less amped. doesn't do what the ECWMF does with the trough
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