brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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pretty favorable trend in the Pacific mid-month... PNA looks much better. might be able to pull off a light event given this pattern
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pretty favorable trend in the Pacific mid-month... PNA looks much better. might be able to pull off a light event given this pattern
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there will always be Pacific air in Ninos. they aren't super cold or anything, just stormy
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given that we have already see significant -NAO blocking and should have a -NAO December in the mean, we should see more blocking spells. this is especially true when you factor in the weak SPV (and potentially even a SSW, but remains to be seen)
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that look is the transition into the more favorable pattern the Weeklies have... SW trough moves east as the PNA rises, AK trough retrogrades and the -NAO develops
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idk, this develops a pretty nice source region as heights increase into AK and the NAO trends negative. this would be a cold pattern. nothing frigid, but cold given that we're into early Jan at this point. Christmas might be a tad too early... maybe a few days after before we start talking anything bigger
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the transition is still on track on the weeklies... they remain very favorable from Christmas through mid-Jan. the flip towards this pattern is also getting picked up on the end of the EPS
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yup, the signal has remained strong and is moving forward in time. you can see the transition occurring at the end of the EPS and GEPS
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i really doubt it. that is super rare and there isn't a reason to believe we won't get a favorable pattern once into the back half of winter this year
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it'll probably take until Christmas week but that progression has been hammered upon by extended guidance and the beginnings are showing up on ensembles. just need to see it move forward in time now. makes sense given the progression of tropical forcing
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the GEPS is pushing that trough east and the GEFS is getting there. not cold or anything, but the Weeklies do the same thing... the AK ridge also retrogrades east and allows for ridging into W Canada. it's the same pattern progression as the MJO circles
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the ENS and extended products look like that as they transition to a more favorable pattern during holiday week
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apparently to some we are still stuck in a La Nina, so there isn't really convincing anyone with this kind of stuff
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weeklies are still insistent on a pattern change holiday week. it makes sense, the torch is pretty transitory as the MJO circles around
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those Hovmoller plots show the MJO propagating into phases 7 and 8. there is sinking air into the MC when looking at straight VP plots too. not sure how there is any forcing into 4 or 5 here
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how? that is showing subsidence over the MC after the 15th. the rising air is over the dateline and east as well as the western IO. those are phases 7, 8 and 1
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it's not correcting slower. it's been modeled pretty consistently to get into 7 and 8 by mid-month
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definitely the winter, but there are signs that the PNA improves around the holidays anyway
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my point is that writing off winter in early Jan when it is supposed to be backloaded is silly. you can write it off in Nina winters when the end of the winter is suppose to be crappy
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a -NAO is absolutely not useless... that is silly. NYC pretty much needs a strong -NAO to get a 12"+ event or greater a really crappy Pacific can negate a -NAO, but we have had some pretty bad Pacifics over the last couple of years. that should change with the Nino in place, especially in the second half
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this was forecast by pretty much everyone. end of the month into early Jan shows some promise though. just going to have to be patient
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I think that is unreasonable. Ninos are backloaded... places can easily not see much before Jan begins and the rest of the winter can still be great. 2014-15 is the prime example of that
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you don't think there's any validity? it's supported by the tropical convection moving along
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also worth noting that strong SPV warming usually leads to a pretty crappy pattern for the E US. this is likely due to such warming occurring when the MJO is in unfavorable phases
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patience is a virtue
