brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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there has been a pretty well defined trend to sharpen the trailing NS vort. could make things interesting if it crosses the tipping point and cuts off
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the EPS actually did have a closed ULL over the Delmarva at 06z
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also the ICON goes absolutely ballistic over you guys. if the NS vort really is that strong then it's possible but there's a big grain of salt right now
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overall I think the main takeaway is that it is so much easier to get a favorable pattern than it is during a Nina, lemme tell you
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it's probably going to be that way, but it'll get there
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yeah, weeklies are loaded. Arctic looks great
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GEFS and GEPS are both seeing the changes in the Pacific. seems like it's gaining traction
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I'm not sure. I think I might have heard something about that but someone probably knows a lot more than me about that stuff
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if you roll that out, you get a KU and then the 50/50 leads to a -NAO block. total 180 from the garbage we were seeing only a few days ago
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yeah the wave breaking that's showing up in the Pacific could be a game changer. want to see other ENS and suites bite on it, but the OP GFS has been very consistent on it over the last couple of days it makes sense. the weak SPV leaves the pattern more prone to blocking
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look over AK. goes from progressive flow to a massive block
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wavebreaks are literal hell for LR ENS guidance so it makes sense that it might be getting sniffed out by OP runs. we shall see, but there is reason for optimism
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the reason why I say a trillion is because it leads to a legit storm forming at the end of the run. this is way more fun than the blowtorch that was getting spit out a few days ago
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this is about as big of a positive change in the Pacific pattern as you can see, compared from a couple days ago. really want to see this idea gain some traction
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this is about as big of a positive change in the Pacific pattern as you can see, compared from a couple days ago. really want to see this idea gain some traction
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pretty wild wavebreaking showing up on the OP runs now... this is a trillion times better than what was advertised for this time period a few days ago
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pretty wild wavebreaking showing up on the OP runs now... this is a trillion times better than what was advertised for this time period a few days ago
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they are definitely better than climo. not a guarantee by any means, but still a better than normal shot for this early. and you're correct, a weak SPV is still a good thing to have. however, a SSW can give you those truly anomalous retrograding -NAO blocks. I am personally rooting for one
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pretty solidly -AO/-NAO/-EPO there, though. that would be more than serviceable
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the only issue is that with these kinds of winters with a generally susceptible -NAO state, they can just kind of pop up in the medium to semi-long range. that's what happened with the blocking spell early in the month. nothing really sniffed it out if we are seeing a legit anomalous, long lasting -NAO brought on by Scandi ridging, it is probably very legit and we could get smoked. but that's speculation, of course. a SSW could help that occur, though
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luckily, I don't think we'll really have to worry about the NAO. would be different if we had a death star SPV, but it's weak, and we have already had spells of blocking this fall and earlier in the month. i highly doubt the NAO domain remains like that for too long, let alone for the rest of the winter
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OP runs have been keying in on a wave break into central Canada. this would be a much more interesting look if it retrogrades into NW Canada or Greenland like it has over the last few runs
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new GFS runs showing much more of a wave break into central Canada that retrogrades into NW Canada. this would have a pretty big impact on the pattern during the holiday week... we'll see if this can remain consistent over the coming days
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sorry but LOL
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i wouldn’t worry. i haven’t seen any reason why this year won’t deliver. if we’re in the same spot in a month with crap on the horizon for 10 days, then it’s time to worry
