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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    so people like myself, @griteater, @40/70 Benchmark, and others who had 2009 as a strong analog would have been called weenies by him, but now it’s his top analog? such bullshit
  2. brooklynwx99
    lmao no, your argument is “well it’s on modeling now, what if it’s wrong? what if it just goes away?” which is a horrible argument and you know it. come on dude. imagine if Tony came in here if models had the PV over Greenland and was like “well what if they’re all just wrong and we can get a -NAO? the +NAO came up out of nowhere!” you’d write an impassioned essay using SAT vocab about how much of a dumb weenie is. you’re doing the same, just the other way
  3. brooklynwx99
    you also misrepresented what i said. I didn’t say that there would be a massive -NAO month (although it likely ends up a tad negative). i said that canonical strong, especially super events feature strong +NAO patterns. that is likely not the case this month
  4. brooklynwx99
    okay, so let’s just throw every single piece of higher skill guidance out? that’s not how you’re supposed to forecast and the models have not been flip flopping. they are all in agreement on a strong west based -NAO block that is both strengthening and moving forward in time. even Webb has conceded in that regard
  5. brooklynwx99
    i agree with the boom/bust sentiment, and it seems like we’re leaning more boom than bust given the -NAO developing already
  6. brooklynwx99
    this event is already not really acting canonical given its strength. strong to super Ninos often feature strong +NAO patterns… that is likely not the case this month
  7. brooklynwx99
    AK ridging showing up later in the run. great pattern overall
  8. brooklynwx99
    EPS is top tier with AK ridging popping up too
  9. brooklynwx99
    this is more like it
  10. brooklynwx99
    like i’m not sure what most of you want. this is a nearly ideal pattern. way more pros than cons
  11. brooklynwx99
    huh? this is a colder than average pattern with blocking. there’s always going to be Pacific air in a strong Nino
  12. brooklynwx99
    this looks good to me. the NPAC won’t be as much of an issue with Nino in place, +PNA and a SE trough is favored
  13. brooklynwx99
    that is a legit -NAO too. notice how the entire N Atl is blocked up through Europe
  14. brooklynwx99
    mint
  15. brooklynwx99
    my lord that is a legit -NAO too… notice how the N Atl is blocked up through Europe
  16. brooklynwx99
    that’s the point. El Niño Decembers that feature a -NAO often end up prolonging that blocking throughout the winter
  17. brooklynwx99
    we haven’t been in a strong Nino in 8 years. the minimizing of Phases 4-6 is similar to the phantom pushes through 7-8-1 during La Ninas
  18. brooklynwx99
    pretty much everything i’ve seen so far on LR guidance is highly auspicious… -NAO still remaining, which quickly puts on closer to the 2002/2009 winters rather than the crap ones like 1997 or 1972
  19. brooklynwx99
    dude flip flopped so hard
  20. brooklynwx99
    yeah once you’re into early December and you have blocking that anomalous you can pull off snow down to the MA. definitely a coastal pattern though
  21. brooklynwx99
    your concerns are overblown… there is a ridge out west here. nothing like last year with a trough digging into Baja CA. not sure what you’re referring to
  22. brooklynwx99
    what? this is up and in?
  23. brooklynwx99
    yup. one of the bigger things too is how much better the NPAC has looked, so when we do get blocking, it should be infinitely more effective
  24. brooklynwx99
    the MJO stuff is similar to when there are the phantom moves into 7/8 during a La Niña. this is another good sign
  25. brooklynwx99
    yeah. we’re just weenies thinking it could be any different i think this is the first big hit at that assertion
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