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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    my lord that is a legit -NAO too… notice how the N Atl is blocked up through Europe
  2. brooklynwx99
    that’s the point. El Niño Decembers that feature a -NAO often end up prolonging that blocking throughout the winter
  3. brooklynwx99
    we haven’t been in a strong Nino in 8 years. the minimizing of Phases 4-6 is similar to the phantom pushes through 7-8-1 during La Ninas
  4. brooklynwx99
    pretty much everything i’ve seen so far on LR guidance is highly auspicious… -NAO still remaining, which quickly puts on closer to the 2002/2009 winters rather than the crap ones like 1997 or 1972
  5. brooklynwx99
    dude flip flopped so hard
  6. brooklynwx99
    yeah once you’re into early December and you have blocking that anomalous you can pull off snow down to the MA. definitely a coastal pattern though
  7. brooklynwx99
    your concerns are overblown… there is a ridge out west here. nothing like last year with a trough digging into Baja CA. not sure what you’re referring to
  8. brooklynwx99
    what? this is up and in?
  9. brooklynwx99
    yup. one of the bigger things too is how much better the NPAC has looked, so when we do get blocking, it should be infinitely more effective
  10. brooklynwx99
    the MJO stuff is similar to when there are the phantom moves into 7/8 during a La Niña. this is another good sign
  11. brooklynwx99
    yeah. we’re just weenies thinking it could be any different i think this is the first big hit at that assertion
  12. brooklynwx99
    again… it honestly doesn’t really matter THAT much if this produces a big storm. just the fact that anomalous -NAO blocking is showing up is a big sign towards a good winter. the same thing happened in 2002/2009
  13. brooklynwx99
    hi all. figured it’s time to start a December thread given that ensembles are keying in on anomalous west-based -NAO blocking setting up during the first week of the month. we would like to see this signal strengthen over the coming week, but this is a highly conducive pattern. also notice how much better the NPAC and PNA region is compared to last year! god bless +ENSO. hopefully we can start off hot, which would likely set us up for a great winter historically looking at previous +ENSO winters that had blocky Decembers. happy Thanksgiving!
  14. brooklynwx99
    notice how much better the NPAC is compared to last year. god bless +ENSO
  15. brooklynwx99
    pretty mint IMO
  16. brooklynwx99
    THIS is how to run a strong Nino December. -NAO gone wild
  17. brooklynwx99
    nice timeframe here with a WB -NAO and 50/50 ULL in place. can see a S/W working under the flow. as the GoA trough retrogrades a bit, then you get a transient +PNA
  18. brooklynwx99
    nice timeframe here with a WB -NAO and 50/50 ULL in place. can see a S/W working under the flow. as the GoA trough retrogrades a bit, then you get a transient +PNA
  19. brooklynwx99
    perhaps the speculation that this may, indeed, act like a Modoki event due to the WPAC warm pool might not be so ridiculous? we shall see
  20. brooklynwx99
    last year had a great December pattern. roll the dice with that look and you'll cash in 8/10 times... just didn't happen last year, what can you do
  21. brooklynwx99
    the fact that the -NAO is showing up at all is the important part. also, we shouldn't have a strong Nina SE ridge influence like we did last year
  22. brooklynwx99
    but! but! this is obviously acting like a canonical event! there could be a PDII redux in December and he would find a way to spin it
  23. brooklynwx99
    that's a run-over-run trend. these are the actual 500mb anomalies... the western trough is pretty common in Nino Decembers that move into Phase 3
  24. brooklynwx99
    one could make the case that 09-10 was strong as well... that winter topped out at +1.6C in NDJ
  25. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it's not cold enough early (unless the GEPS -EPO is right), but seeing the -NAO and SPV perturbation both showing up over the last few days is highly encouraging it would be leading us on the 2002/2009 type track rather than the 1972/1982/1991/2015 track
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