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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. CMC is a space cadet right now. it’s still trending towards the other models and has been doing so for two model cycles now i think it represents the western end of the envelope
  2. also, way out there, but this is a good overrunning setup on the GEFS. departing Arctic air, -EPO, TPV nearby, and a potent southern stream vort i can see an overrunning event as the pattern totally decays. although there is a 500mb zonal ridge, surface cold air can easily remain
  3. to be honest, a Niña after a strong Nino might actually be pretty interesting. but no reason in entertaining that until we pass the spring predictability barrier anyway
  4. EPS is more consolidated. i would expect the ECMWF to come back NW tonight
  5. for reference, that 09 east of Georgia is the OP. massive weak/southern outlier
  6. i'd much rather pull this thing NW than SE at this range, that's for certain
  7. it literally happens all the time. nobody here cares about what happens in Gary, Indiana
  8. i think it ends up a bit too disorganized in the end. odd, looked promising. not a big deal, though, it's one OP run
  9. run should be good. initial vort is stronger, ridge out west is taller. should dig more, if nothing else
  10. looking under the hood, UKMET actually increased confluence pretty dramatically and the trough orientation is more favorable this run
  11. the CMC has been lost, though. it's completely changed the trough orientation over the last couple of days. seems like everything is moving towards the ECMWF
  12. this run is going to be awesome. better trough orientation over the Rockies along with more confluence what a gorgeous look we have now
  13. confluence is much stronger this run. big shift towards the ECMWF
  14. that kind of setup is an actual possibility with a -EPO/+PNA, undercutting SW trough, and displaced TPV, but I digress
  15. pretty sure the control is just a lower-resolution version of the OP that they run the ensemble off of
  16. the control would be a MECS lmao. northern stream outruns the main S/W and provides confluence
  17. EPS is actually more amplified with the vort. wonder if some of those lows develop later and bring precip in
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