brooklynwx99

i really doubt it. that is super rare and there isn't a reason to believe we won't get a favorable pattern once into the back half of winter this year

it'll probably take until Christmas week but that progression has been hammered upon by extended guidance and the beginnings are showing up on ensembles. just need to see it move forward in time now. makes sense given the progression of tropical forcing

the GEPS is pushing that trough east and the GEFS is getting there. not cold or anything, but the Weeklies do the same thing... the AK ridge also retrogrades east and allows for ridging into W Canada. it's the same pattern progression as the MJO circles

the ENS and extended products look like that as they transition to a more favorable pattern during holiday week

apparently to some we are still stuck in a La Nina, so there isn't really convincing anyone with this kind of stuff

weeklies are still insistent on a pattern change holiday week. it makes sense, the torch is pretty transitory as the MJO circles around

those Hovmoller plots show the MJO propagating into phases 7 and 8. there is sinking air into the MC when looking at straight VP plots too. not sure how there is any forcing into 4 or 5 here

how? that is showing subsidence over the MC after the 15th. the rising air is over the dateline and east as well as the western IO. those are phases 7, 8 and 1

it's not correcting slower. it's been modeled pretty consistently to get into 7 and 8 by mid-month

definitely the winter, but there are signs that the PNA improves around the holidays anyway

my point is that writing off winter in early Jan when it is supposed to be backloaded is silly. you can write it off in Nina winters when the end of the winter is suppose to be crappy

a -NAO is absolutely not useless... that is silly. NYC pretty much needs a strong -NAO to get a 12"+ event or greater a really crappy Pacific can negate a -NAO, but we have had some pretty bad Pacifics over the last couple of years. that should change with the Nino in place, especially in the second half

this was forecast by pretty much everyone. end of the month into early Jan shows some promise though. just going to have to be patient

I think that is unreasonable. Ninos are backloaded... places can easily not see much before Jan begins and the rest of the winter can still be great. 2014-15 is the prime example of that

you don't think there's any validity? it's supported by the tropical convection moving along

also worth noting that strong SPV warming usually leads to a pretty crappy pattern for the E US. this is likely due to such warming occurring when the MJO is in unfavorable phases

patience is a virtue

yeah I think for anything significant it'll have to wait until Christmas week but it's hard to totally punt all that time then. something can be fluked into with a well timed HP or something

the thing is that a crappy Pacific doesn't just imply some "Nina hangover". strong Ninos often have a really crappy Pacific pattern that straightens itself out later in the year. like this is a typical thing. the Nino is working as intended what is nice is that we're already seeing blocking, which is a great sign for later in the year. also, moving through the warmer MJO phases of 4-5-6 will also dramatically weaken the SPV and perhaps even net us a SSW that can make Feb pretty wild if significant blocking develops

the change looks pretty quick as the MJO propagates so I'm not really that worried

there is a transient period of MC forcing as the MJO circles back around to 7-8-1. i wouldn’t worry about it too much

i highly doubt it. Strong El Niños often feature a trough in the SW US anyway a ridge over the E US is to be expected. it’s nice to see the persistent -AO/NAO though. that bodes well

strong blocking doesn’t allow for a major snowstorm every time. it simply greatly increases the odds. you can still get screwed

there is no reason why a borderline super Nino event wouldn’t lead to Nino conditions. perhaps you can look back and see that, but to forecast a lack of change is silly in my opinion

LOL weenies for saying the MJO would quickly progress. is this good enough? i’m not just saying stuff to say it i swear, some are just making crap up to potentially prepare themselves for a negative outcome. it’s so weird