brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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the Pacific just has to be serviceable. it was god awful the last two years, i don’t expect that this year
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and yes, the Pacific isn’t amazing there, but it is not nearly as prohibitive as it was last year. it should also improve as the MJO progresses east
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also, the move through the 6-7 phases as well as the B-K Sea ridge will help disrupt the SPV further. this signal for a Scandi ridge can also retrograde into a -NAO
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this is a clean progression into 7-8-1
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the same occurs in La Niña years when we get forcing into 7-8
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i’m pretty sure it’s weakened
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save winter? no, but it just builds the case for string blocking later in the year is all. the Pacific was supposed to be pretty uncooperative early on and should get better late month. i’ve really only seen good things so far… the things that have been bad have also been sorta expected
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it’s also worth noting that high amplitude passes though 5-6-7 can also help lead to SPV warming and subsequent SSWs
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it probably will be problematic mid month. no reason to believe it won’t become more favorable late month as the MJO continues to progress
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i do like the B-K Sea / Scandi ridging showing up on all ENS. that helps weaken the SPV as well as perhaps retrograde into the NAO domain
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i do like the B-K Sea / Scandi ridging showing up on all ENS. that helps weaken the SPV as well as perhaps retrograde into the NAO domain
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can we at least wait until the month is over? jesus christ
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GEFS looks better with the trailing wave and +PNA
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GEFS looks better with the trailing wave and +PNA
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the pattern on the GFS is actually pretty great: potent +PNA, deep S/W diving into the OH Valley, 50/50 ULL, and a west-based -NAO the big caveat is that it's early, so 1) longer wavelengths, so it can't wrap up as easily, and 2) it's fighting climo
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GFS has been steadily trending towards something there. very thread-the-needle, but worth an eye
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didn't you get a 30" JP in Jan 2022
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highly doubt. there will be spells, though. same as when we get temporary spells of 7 and 8 in a Nina. happened in Jan 2022 when we got that blizzard at the end of the month
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the MJO is going around the horn. it'll take until mid-month to get back into 7-8-1, but all ENS and the CFS get it there. should open up a more favorable period around the third or fourth week of the month as many have been saying. this is likely a small detour... I don't see a reason why forcing would remain in that area, as ENSO becomes more of a factor and promotes subsidence over the MC SPV weakening also does warm us up here, too
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the issue that we're still seeing is that people see a very strong event that's based in the EP (which is true) and that's where it begins and ends. the majority of the strong/super years also did not feature blocking. this one can certainly finish with a -NAO, which puts it in great company
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that Scandi ridging on the GEFS is nice, could be a precursor to a -NAO event especially given SPV weakening. the EPS is similar in that regard
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with this being said, I agree with you in that it's going to get warm for a week to 10 days mid-month. then we should see a shift in the pattern Christmas week
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the VP plots show the same thing. the MJO moves into 7/8 by mid-month on all major ensembles. it's in the warm phases for a week maybe? it's not like it's sitting there for a month, the wave is propagating east
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there is zero evidence that the MJO will sit in unfavorable phases for more than a few days to a week. this is a quick moving wave that will warm us up from Dec 10-20, most likely
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there is no reason to believe that the MJO passing through the MC is anything but temporary... all models have the MJO progressing into more favorable phases by mid-month. the SPV is also likely going to be very weak compared to climatology, which will bolster the case for -NAO periods late in the winter given that we're already seeing blocking
