brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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yeah I think for anything significant it'll have to wait until Christmas week but it's hard to totally punt all that time then. something can be fluked into with a well timed HP or something
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the thing is that a crappy Pacific doesn't just imply some "Nina hangover". strong Ninos often have a really crappy Pacific pattern that straightens itself out later in the year. like this is a typical thing. the Nino is working as intended what is nice is that we're already seeing blocking, which is a great sign for later in the year. also, moving through the warmer MJO phases of 4-5-6 will also dramatically weaken the SPV and perhaps even net us a SSW that can make Feb pretty wild if significant blocking develops
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the change looks pretty quick as the MJO propagates so I'm not really that worried
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there is a transient period of MC forcing as the MJO circles back around to 7-8-1. i wouldn’t worry about it too much
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i highly doubt it. Strong El Niños often feature a trough in the SW US anyway a ridge over the E US is to be expected. it’s nice to see the persistent -AO/NAO though. that bodes well
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strong blocking doesn’t allow for a major snowstorm every time. it simply greatly increases the odds. you can still get screwed
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there is no reason why a borderline super Nino event wouldn’t lead to Nino conditions. perhaps you can look back and see that, but to forecast a lack of change is silly in my opinion
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LOL weenies for saying the MJO would quickly progress. is this good enough? i’m not just saying stuff to say it i swear, some are just making crap up to potentially prepare themselves for a negative outcome. it’s so weird
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that appears to be a transient pattern as the MJO quickly passes through the unfavorable phases
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weeklies are straight weenie fuel from the holidays through mid Jan. makes sense as the MJO goes into favorable phases
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weeklies are straight weenie fuel from the holidays through mid Jan
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strong to super Ninos have a pretty significant dearth of blocking in December. it is unusual to see a persistent -NAO this early Ninos that do have -NAO Decembers carry it over through the rest of the winter more than not, though
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i know the Pacific isn’t ideal at this point, but seeing the persistent -NAO signal is awesome to see for the rest of the winter
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i know the Pacific isn’t ideal at this point, but seeing the persistent -NAO signal is awesome to see for the rest of the winter
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the Pacific just has to be serviceable. it was god awful the last two years, i don’t expect that this year
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and yes, the Pacific isn’t amazing there, but it is not nearly as prohibitive as it was last year. it should also improve as the MJO progresses east
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also, the move through the 6-7 phases as well as the B-K Sea ridge will help disrupt the SPV further. this signal for a Scandi ridge can also retrograde into a -NAO
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this is a clean progression into 7-8-1
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the same occurs in La Niña years when we get forcing into 7-8
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i’m pretty sure it’s weakened
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save winter? no, but it just builds the case for string blocking later in the year is all. the Pacific was supposed to be pretty uncooperative early on and should get better late month. i’ve really only seen good things so far… the things that have been bad have also been sorta expected
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it’s also worth noting that high amplitude passes though 5-6-7 can also help lead to SPV warming and subsequent SSWs
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it probably will be problematic mid month. no reason to believe it won’t become more favorable late month as the MJO continues to progress
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i do like the B-K Sea / Scandi ridging showing up on all ENS. that helps weaken the SPV as well as perhaps retrograde into the NAO domain
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i do like the B-K Sea / Scandi ridging showing up on all ENS. that helps weaken the SPV as well as perhaps retrograde into the NAO domain
