brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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nah, draw the OP out at least and you’d get a ridge bridge into AK going. wave breaks lead to weird stuff. not confident on anything like that and we probably do have to wait until Jan, but things can get interesting when you have the STJ undercutting like that
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you’re getting towards something better at the end of the 18z GEFS. got a trough undercutting N Canada ridging… you can get a wave break in the ATL and send that ridging towards Greenland. that’s what happens on the OP
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blocking is pretty essential in Ninos and the models usually miss it at range unless it’s a classic pig retrograding Scandi ridge. the STJ undercutting Canadian blocking/ridging is usually how you score. they aren’t Arctic cold patterns, but they work
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you’re getting towards something better at the end of the 18z GEFS. got a trough undercutting N Canada ridging… you can get a wave break in the ATL and send that ridging towards Greenland. that’s what happens on the OP
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if the Arctic is that unfavorable for the entire back half of winter, i will be absolutely shocked
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don’t even bother lmao it’s disingenuous
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i don’t know why they decided to run those every day. they’re just going to drive people nuts considering they’ll waffle around
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i would be shocked if we had a Pacific onslaught for the whole winter like 1997. analogs and seasonals strongly suggest otherwise. also factor in the weak SPV
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2015 always checked out. a weaker, colder version of that winter would be pretty damn good
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they aren't far out enough to see any significant blocking that would result from any kind of SSW. that would wait until late Jan and I don't think anything really goes out that far. the Pacific should improve handily once into the first or second week of Jan also, Ninos often have in-situ blocking from wave breaks that extended guidance has no chance of picking up on. that's how we got that first blocking spell earlier this month
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that isn't what i said. the jet retraction should allow for a more favorable pattern into early-mid Jan
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seems to be a slower progression. modeling underdid how strong the Pacific jet would get since they underestimated the +EAMT event. they corrected, and they still look good once the jet retracts. it's just backed up a bit. wouldn't worry too much about it also, given how weak the SPV is going to get (could even see a SSW), we should see more blocking, especially late Jan into Feb
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i don't think that's it's needed per se, but it would definitely help set the stage for a very blocky February. I think the jet retraction is the main catalyst for a more favorable Jan pattern and the main blocking spell coincides with the SPV shenanigans heading into Feb
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if we get a SSW (which is a legit possibility) then it could seriously be hammer time for February. but we will see about that
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i would be shocked if there wasn't a change to a more favorable pattern. analogs and seasonals have been screaming for it since the summer. combine that with the weak SPV and previous -NAO spell and there's a good case for it
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the jet has retracted pretty handily by this point, which is nice to see
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also good job @Allsnow and @bluewave for your skepticism. I still think we'll enter a favorable pattern once into Jan (probably around the 10th if I had to guess?) and especially Feb, but the Nino is really flexing its muscles right now. pretty par for the course with strong Nino Decembers, though
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there is a pretty good shot we move to d) later this winter, though. just gotta be patient
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i mean, it is. the jet extends due to a +EAMT that leads to an easterly PGF (and winds). the Pacific jet counteracts that EAMT to conserve momentum. it's not going to remain extended like that forever. it's a temporary solution to a physics problem, basically
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the jet will retract at some point. seems to be a bit after Christmas for now but we'll see if this is correct on the timing
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there is cold, it’s just over the ocean so the anoms aren’t as strong. pretty awful looking maps though
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extratropical forcing is leading to a huge momentum pulse from the Pacific jet… a +EAMT, to be exact. models under did the influence of this forcing, but luckily, it’s temporary
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they don’t. it’s literally avoidant attachment but instead of the girl you like, it’s with snow
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i just consider warming to be a SSW when 10mb mean zonal winds become easterly
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this would help. potent signal for significant weakening, if not an actual SSW in early Jan. the -QBO is putting in work
