brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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yeah the wave breaking that's showing up in the Pacific could be a game changer. want to see other ENS and suites bite on it, but the OP GFS has been very consistent on it over the last couple of days it makes sense. the weak SPV leaves the pattern more prone to blocking
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look over AK. goes from progressive flow to a massive block
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wavebreaks are literal hell for LR ENS guidance so it makes sense that it might be getting sniffed out by OP runs. we shall see, but there is reason for optimism
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the reason why I say a trillion is because it leads to a legit storm forming at the end of the run. this is way more fun than the blowtorch that was getting spit out a few days ago
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this is about as big of a positive change in the Pacific pattern as you can see, compared from a couple days ago. really want to see this idea gain some traction
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this is about as big of a positive change in the Pacific pattern as you can see, compared from a couple days ago. really want to see this idea gain some traction
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pretty wild wavebreaking showing up on the OP runs now... this is a trillion times better than what was advertised for this time period a few days ago
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pretty wild wavebreaking showing up on the OP runs now... this is a trillion times better than what was advertised for this time period a few days ago
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they are definitely better than climo. not a guarantee by any means, but still a better than normal shot for this early. and you're correct, a weak SPV is still a good thing to have. however, a SSW can give you those truly anomalous retrograding -NAO blocks. I am personally rooting for one
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pretty solidly -AO/-NAO/-EPO there, though. that would be more than serviceable
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the only issue is that with these kinds of winters with a generally susceptible -NAO state, they can just kind of pop up in the medium to semi-long range. that's what happened with the blocking spell early in the month. nothing really sniffed it out if we are seeing a legit anomalous, long lasting -NAO brought on by Scandi ridging, it is probably very legit and we could get smoked. but that's speculation, of course. a SSW could help that occur, though
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luckily, I don't think we'll really have to worry about the NAO. would be different if we had a death star SPV, but it's weak, and we have already had spells of blocking this fall and earlier in the month. i highly doubt the NAO domain remains like that for too long, let alone for the rest of the winter
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OP runs have been keying in on a wave break into central Canada. this would be a much more interesting look if it retrogrades into NW Canada or Greenland like it has over the last few runs
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new GFS runs showing much more of a wave break into central Canada that retrogrades into NW Canada. this would have a pretty big impact on the pattern during the holiday week... we'll see if this can remain consistent over the coming days
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sorry but LOL
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i wouldn’t worry. i haven’t seen any reason why this year won’t deliver. if we’re in the same spot in a month with crap on the horizon for 10 days, then it’s time to worry
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nah, draw the OP out at least and you’d get a ridge bridge into AK going. wave breaks lead to weird stuff. not confident on anything like that and we probably do have to wait until Jan, but things can get interesting when you have the STJ undercutting like that
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you’re getting towards something better at the end of the 18z GEFS. got a trough undercutting N Canada ridging… you can get a wave break in the ATL and send that ridging towards Greenland. that’s what happens on the OP
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blocking is pretty essential in Ninos and the models usually miss it at range unless it’s a classic pig retrograding Scandi ridge. the STJ undercutting Canadian blocking/ridging is usually how you score. they aren’t Arctic cold patterns, but they work
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you’re getting towards something better at the end of the 18z GEFS. got a trough undercutting N Canada ridging… you can get a wave break in the ATL and send that ridging towards Greenland. that’s what happens on the OP
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if the Arctic is that unfavorable for the entire back half of winter, i will be absolutely shocked
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don’t even bother lmao it’s disingenuous
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i don’t know why they decided to run those every day. they’re just going to drive people nuts considering they’ll waffle around
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i would be shocked if we had a Pacific onslaught for the whole winter like 1997. analogs and seasonals strongly suggest otherwise. also factor in the weak SPV
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2015 always checked out. a weaker, colder version of that winter would be pretty damn good
