brooklynwx99

even with the jet extension, this doesn't have the same feel as December, as you still have polar flow with ridging into AK and Siberia like this isn't really torchy as the source region is still intact, it's different from Dec where you have a straight up vortex over those regions is it great, no, but it would still provide opportunities before the jet retracts. I can see this trending worse, but it's fine for now. then, when the jet retracts, which it will, that's when the door opens for something bigger

even with the jet extension, this doesn't have the same feel as December, as you still have polar flow with ridging into AK and Siberia like this isn't really torchy as the source region is still intact, it's different from Dec where you have a straight up vortex over those regions is it great, no, but it would still provide opportunities before the jet retracts. I can see this trending worse, but it's fine for now. then, as the jet retracts, that's when you really open it up for something bigger

NAM incorporates that lead wave more fully. would like to see other guidance jump on that, as it leads to a better baroclinic zone as well as more PVA

it actually incorporates the lead energy into the trough. it's not that much of a change but it makes a big impact

that lead wave is actually infused in the trough this time. changes the game

NAM is dampening the lead wave over the last few runs... look at heights recovering across the Midwest as a result. this would help keep the baroclinic zone a bit farther N

can we wait until the winter is, you know, over before people assign it a grade? I don't know why that's so hard for some

your overcompensation in the other direction from a year ago has been absolutely extraordinary to witness

makes sense, possible overextension as the Aleutian Low forms, then retracts and the pattern becomes much more favorable. not really worried about that ATM extended guidance also completely missed this blocking spell

literally opposite patterns, but yeah, no changes

english, please?

yes, getting 1.5x your average in a month and change is the bar for a disaster or not! very realistic

can't tell you how many times I've seen NYC in the bullseye at 60 hours out for it to hit CT

I wouldn't even be worried if trough consolidation is the issue right now. seeing the weaker confluence from the NAM, ICON, and RGEM is a big deal and is something that can't really be fixed that easily if it's crappy. however, look at today's system at the same lead time:

i wouldn't even be worried if trough consolidation is the issue right now. seeing the weaker confluence from the NAM, ICON, and RGEM is a big deal and is something that can't really be fixed that easily if it's crappy. however, look at today's system at the same lead time:

hell, look at what happened with today's system. trough went from totally strung out to consolidated at the same lead time

confluence is solidly weaker and the vort is stronger

confluence is weaker on the EPS... that's the big thing here

GEFS has actually been consistently more amplified, regardless of the OP’s movement

it’s just surprising that the ENS defied the OP. the GEFS almost invariably follows the OP

surprisingly, the GEFS actually defied the OP (shocker) and is more amped with the trough

i hope i don’t do the same. i like to highlight potential, but maybe i should be more reserved. i know that the mets and we’ll adjusted hobbyists can compartmentalize potential from possible reality, but some can’t anyway, seems like we may be in the process of increased trough consolidation. many may be looking at a solid light event

i suspect that some people get all their dopamine from favorable model runs, and when they don’t happen and they don’t get their rush, they collapse in on themselves like a dying star

we need to see modeling remain consistent with the stronger and more coherent S/W for the 20th. if that is true, it’s game on

we need to see modeling remain consistent with the stronger and more coherent S/W. if that is true, it’s game on