brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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would be nice if there was enough wave spacing for the backside wave to amplify
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it's too early for anything but an ideal pattern. hell, it doesn't even snow up here in coastal NJ until the 15th or so, let alone near you guys. the last couple weeks is a different story, but we have no idea how those weeks are going to shake out
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this explanation makes sense, as the strong IOD leading to forcing in P3 is a typical strong Nino response. it's not Nina forcing
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2018-19 was a weak Nino. I don't see why the same would occur during a borderline super event. this is a completely different year
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do we need +4C anomalies over the Pacific in order for El Nino forcing to be felt? i truly do not see why there is so much discussion as if this Nino is failing and we're just stuck in a La Nina. it makes zero sense. this event is going to top out at like +1.8C
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we are in a well coupled borderline super Nino. what do some of you think needs to happen? the discourse is as if we're still in a La Nina
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you're telling me
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that's silly. that's how El Ninos usually go. we've just had 5 Ninas in the last 7 years, so people have forgotten how they usually work. there is no meteorological reason that we would spend most of the winter in 4-5-6 the warmest water is also still over the central Pacific. SSTs also only really help feed back on atmospheric processes, they don't drive them
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MJO caught got in 3-4-5 but it'll progress into more favorable phases over the next couple of weeks
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the thing is that the passes through warmer phases are weaker and quicker than they are during Ninas. but they are still going to happen sometimes, especially early in the year
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yes, generally. the EPS shows this progression back into 7-8-1 well a couple intrusions into 4-5-6 are going to happen early on in the year before the Nino is truly established. this intrusion was actually well forecast... models saw it around a week ago
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I would still be encouraged seeing significant -NAO blocking this early, as well as a much weaker than average SPV. these are known to help lead to blocking later in the winter, especially in -QBO/Nino regimes. the Pacific is usually the issue in El Nino Decembers
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this kind of pattern may cut it in like mid Jan through Feb, but it's too early to compensate for a less than ideal Pacific luckily, it really doesn't snow much before the 15-20th anywhere near the coast, so it's not like we're really missing out on much
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that is true, but they are really all that we have
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this is likely the case the further we go into winter
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that’s just not true
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why are we comparing this year to the last few years when we have a strong Nino? the last few years we have had a La Nina this is what baffles me. we have completely different tropical forcing in play. why are we using the same reasoning as we did for the last several years? it's just glorified persistence forecasting, which ends up wrong at some point
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that literally just happened last winter. one winter isn't proof that -NAO don't work anymore. last winter just sucked, it happens. the confirmation bias has been through the roof
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like i think people are literally just saying shit just to say it and it's getting frustrating. you cannot tell me that those patterns that have produced some of NYC's largest storms ever would probably get dragged over the coals today because of factors that aren't even detrimental. it has gotten ridiculous
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this was also the pattern a week before the 2021 blizzard. if we got this pattern this year we'd just hear about how useless the massive -NAO block would be since there's a Nina background state SE ridge and a horrible Pacific pattern. no way we could get a historic storm here
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SE ridges pop ahead of developing storm systems, and we have also had a blizzard with a trough in the SW US. I mean, this was the pattern a week before the largest snowstorm JFK ever got. I'm sure people would be trashing the Pacific pattern here too given the GoAK low and the ridge axis too far east over the Plains
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it is Nov 26th and already unbearable. hate to see it literally nothing has changed. I posted about the 5th and onward, and the pattern still becomes favorable after the 5th. what is the argument here for a "pushback" or "wasted blocking?" models have been incredibly consistent
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why are we talking about a Nina background state during a borderline super Nino? I swear, it doesn't snow last year and people are just saying random shit at this point. there is no such thing as a "Nina background state"
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my point was that this isn't a SE ridge. they're height rises out ahead of a developing storm system. two different things
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that isn't a SE ridge. that was just ensemble disagreement on how strong the system would get. stronger solutions verified, and there are height rises ahead of the system over the NE. that doesn't have much to do with a lingering SE ridge tendency or anything
