brooklynwx99

based on how strongly you feel about the lack of Arctic air in Canada, yes, I would believe that you'd find it harder for us to snow. I don't think that's a stretch

also that's a bit of a strawman. who is advocating for Arctic cold? I haven't seen anyone say that

we don't need Arctic air to snow... you just need near normal, and ensembles have us near or below normal by the end of the month. Canada can be +10 and it doesn't really matter for our intents and purposes down here

luckily I think the "winning again" looks like it'll occur around the end of the month. ENS are keying in on a nice pattern as the jet retracts

really nice trend with the Pacific jet too. less oppressive and is leading to more ridging into western Canada

yeah, but the point that @ORH_wxman is trying to make is that that's not how persistence forecasting even really works persistence forecasting implies that the pattern is persistent. the persistence isn't coming from a lack of snow (or wealth of snow)

yes. 8 or 9 times out of 10 you get something with this kind of pattern. got unlucky

this is pretty clear cut

talk about being hostile lmao

this pattern is about as far from last year's at it can possibly be. persistence doesn't really make any sense here

just a parade of coastals

i love how it’s always what I post as if: 1) others don’t post the same stuff. other well respected mets, too! and 2) as if any of us have control over the weather anyway

getting bump trolled by a five-posted poster facepalming because I'm using long range ensembles over OP runs. we are in the fucking sunken place

anecdotal. every single meteorology class in the country that teaches medium and long range forecasting stresses the importance of ensembles if you're arguing that OP runs are more skillful than ensembles at range, every meteorologist here would disagree. it's just wrong

and yeah the EPS looks great. hopefully it has a clue

so now we're taking LR OP runs over their respective ensemble means? why?

you don't really need massive changes. you just need the jet to relax... that should occur

favorable after NYE? probably like 6 or 7/10. would probably last through mid-month before a relaxation as the MJO wave moving through the more favorable phases craps out. even if it's not super favorable, which is possible if the jet remains on steroids for some reason (nothing shows this) I highly doubt it'll be as crappy as the pattern now. the jet shouldn't be as strong it's not a lock or anything but I think that once the jet relaxes, which it will, heights recover into AK and we get a much better source region

also, the timeframe before Christmas was never supposed to look good. not sure where that expectation even came from. maybe it did a couple of weeks ago but that's old news at this point. it's been Christmas into NYE for the transition into a more favorable pattern and that is on track

you would put more stock in a day 10 OP than a day 10-15 ensemble mean? why? that's like putting more faith in a random member than the mean. that won't work

they didn't. they actually look better for the end of the month

have we gone towards looking at shitty OP runs to cancel winter now? and ignoring the good ones? so weird

the GEPS and EPS put the GEFS to shame. really nice seeing heights in AK flip positive, giving us our all-important -EPO. no more Pacific air issues EPS is the best looking in the Atlantic, though. BN heights over Nova Scotia and AN heights nosing into Greenland

i also love seeing the split flow and Pacific wave breaking lead to +PNA. that’s a recipe for big storms

i expect another significant blocking spell at some point. probably late in the winter. i’d be surprised if there wasn’t another one