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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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he has never attacked or trolled. ever
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yes, this is not the typical EP GoA blowtorch like those years had. this year will stray pretty far from those years on the mean
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canonical EP Nino pattern for mid-January… right? RIGHT??
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into the shitter for a week or so in late Jan, yeah. i don’t see a reason for the bulk of Feb to be crappy. nothing argues for that
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seems like a solid window from the 15-23rd afterwards. good agreement on all ensemble guidance
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
i’m not going to act like a good pattern doesn’t look good. there are many other people that will already do that -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
i have no idea where that came from, but that accusation was so foul i had to respond lmao -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
“all due respect” lol -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
bull shit. when things look good, I say they look good. when they look shitty, i say they look shitty. most of this winter has looked shitty. what am i going to do, post the TPV sitting over AK in December for two weeks that clown would say you’re getting a blizzard no matter the pattern. hell, im not even guaranteeing anything, just trying to show people that the pattern is largely favorable rather than bitching and moaning about 300hr OP runs because the TPV shifted 50 miles southwest -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
i will take this general longwave setup 10/10 times and see what happens -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
yup, get something to roll underneath, pop a quick +PNA and it's big dog time -
i'm not even really sure why we're talking about the MJO and a lack of Arctic air when the Plains are going to experience a legit Arctic outbreak that'll spill over here, and we're going to get a -NAO that displaces the TPV into SE Canada on all ensembles in the medium range. we're going to have chances coming up all the way to the coast, and perhaps a larger one when the block decays
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
the block decaying and the TPV moving towards the 50/50 region are the major factors -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
500mb looks good on the GEFS so I'm fine with it but yeah, that look on the GEPS would give us the 17th as well as a chance for a big dog when the block decays. that evolution fits the bill -
@forkyfork lol
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look at this evolution on the GEPS. classic stuff here
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
the evolution on the GEPS is straight up classic -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
GEFS and GEPS are different, but are both very nice looks for snowfall to the coast. great patterns here, and both would offer higher end potential -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
missing the forest for the trees -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
if you can look at these and be anything but at least a little excited, not sure what to say -
overall, though, I do think it's a conducive pattern. strong AK ridging, Arctic airmass, decaying west based -NAO, and TPV in SE Canada. it has a lot going for it, definitely higher end potential
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lord knows why there's a SE ridge trying to rear its head still
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the TPV is in southeast Canada and is pinned under a block. would be really tough to get a cutter in this pattern. nothing is impossible, but this pattern favors sliders over cutters for sure
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
using the 10th as a cutter to say that the pattern isn't great is disingenuous. that's been a cutter for like two weeks. the 13th does not look good at this latitude and hasn't for a while. the risk for anything larger is from the 15th to the 23rd or so, and the pattern still looks good for something using ensemble snow means is not the best way to go about analyzing if a pattern is favorable or not -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
no, they absolutely are not
