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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. you should be in ensemble mode until like 48-72 hours out the signal for a potentially significant storm is still there. from like BOS to you guys. just use ensembles and keep your nerves lmao
  2. there’s a 1030mb Arctic high pressing in lmao cold air isn’t that much of an issue
  3. if you are south of a 985mb low in this specific setup, you will snow
  4. UKMET out to sea, ICON buries Virginia, GFS smokes NYC, CMC smokes you guys, and ECMWF got way colder pretty well defined idea of what this is going to do IMO
  5. 50/50 is wayyyy stronger. gets a good bit colder at the surface compared to 00z because of it
  6. these changes help quite a bit, though. 50/50 is much stronger and heights out west are higher
  7. he's not even talking about the right storm lmao
  8. UKMET is the second highest scoring model. the GFS is the worst major model lmao still
  9. you guys are going to be a hot mess if you lean on the OP runs this much. follow the ensembles. I wouldn't even say there's been a trend towards one solution or the other, we have another model cycle before anything like that can be said
  10. i would not really focus on the ICON's thermals lmao
  11. i think we've pretty much gone full Nino at this point
  12. looks like the -NAO is caused by wave breaking from the cutter on the 10th
  13. I would be more worried about suppression than an inland runner here. the trough crashing in the west argues for a more progressive outcome, if anything the 50/50 is in a good spot too. HP over the top, it's definitely worth watching. flawed, but can produce
  14. yeah at this point, I think the 5th only serves to act as a 50/50 for the 7th. still need a phase there in some capacity
  15. I would say that's a pretty convincing signal at this lead time
  16. GEFS looks good. stronger vort and better confluence. 250mb jet is more meridional as well
  17. not to hype, but that 50/50 is classic. this is a legit threat
  18. not to hype, but that 50/50 is classic. this is a legit threat
  19. nice changes on the 18z EPS. stronger vort AND stronger confluence. probably remains as strong, but gets a tick colder if I had to take a guess wave spacing in the Pacific is a bit better too
  20. stronger 50/50 and a lot colder, though. I think the changes were good overall
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