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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    the GEPS is pretty close. the GEFS might take a while. its progressive bias likely hurts it given that the -NAO is formed due to a wave breaking event
  2. brooklynwx99
    polar opposite of last December's block. the Pacific is a lot more favorable. thanks El Nino!
  3. brooklynwx99
    given that the GEFS has a pretty large progressive bias and that the -NAO is formed due to wave breaking, I would be more inclined to believe the EPS and GEPS
  4. brooklynwx99
    can you even draw it up better? huge WB -NAO, -EPO, elongated TPV over SE Canada and mean trough over the Lakes
  5. brooklynwx99
    the trough also rolls over and slips under the block. it's not a true -PNA... and there is also a -EPO that provides Arctic air. really exciting look here
  6. brooklynwx99
    don't worry, it gets there. bombs away with this look
  7. brooklynwx99
    once that thing decays or relaxes, though... that's where the big dog pops, theoretically
  8. brooklynwx99
    i think when you have a -NAO like that, you just need the -EPO, PNA can be neutral to slightly negative a +PNA doesn't show up on the mean generally in those KU type patterns. it's just transient as the storms develop
  9. brooklynwx99
    i'm not even exaggerating lmao that is just a crazy WB -NAO signal
  10. brooklynwx99
    i would be remiss to not mention this. this is a legit KU level block. 3 sigma at 12 days out is insane
  11. brooklynwx99
    KU level block. 3 sigma at 12 days out is insane
  12. brooklynwx99
    i would be remiss to not mention this. this is a legit KU level block. 3 sigma at 12 days out is insane
  13. brooklynwx99
    looks like the OP was on the tucked side
  14. brooklynwx99
    6-8" on the mean for the EPS is a very strong signal. you don't see that very often outside of 5 days
  15. brooklynwx99
    yup. 6-8 on the mean for I-78 and north, good clustering. ECMWF OP was on the tucked side
  16. brooklynwx99
    pretty great
  17. brooklynwx99
    if I had to choose, I would probably be more worried about a CMC type solution more than anything, but a lot of options are still on the table. not worth really freaking out over at this range
  18. brooklynwx99
    also the GEFS is fucking awesome
  19. brooklynwx99
    you should be in ensemble mode until like 48-72 hours out the signal for a potentially significant storm is still there. from like BOS to you guys. just use ensembles and keep your nerves lmao
  20. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is cranking up the confluence. love to see it
  21. brooklynwx99
    there’s a 1030mb Arctic high pressing in lmao cold air isn’t that much of an issue
  22. brooklynwx99
    if you are south of a 985mb low in this specific setup, you will snow
  23. brooklynwx99
    UKMET out to sea, ICON buries Virginia, GFS smokes NYC, CMC smokes you guys, and ECMWF got way colder pretty well defined idea of what this is going to do IMO
  24. brooklynwx99
    50/50 is wayyyy stronger. gets a good bit colder at the surface compared to 00z because of it
  25. brooklynwx99
    these changes help quite a bit, though. 50/50 is much stronger and heights out west are higher
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