you should be in ensemble mode until like 48-72 hours out
the signal for a potentially significant storm is still there. from like BOS to you guys. just use ensembles and keep your nerves lmao
UKMET out to sea, ICON buries Virginia, GFS smokes NYC, CMC smokes you guys, and ECMWF got way colder
pretty well defined idea of what this is going to do IMO
you guys are going to be a hot mess if you lean on the OP runs this much. follow the ensembles. I wouldn't even say there's been a trend towards one solution or the other, we have another model cycle before anything like that can be said
I would be more worried about suppression than an inland runner here. the trough crashing in the west argues for a more progressive outcome, if anything
the 50/50 is in a good spot too. HP over the top, it's definitely worth watching. flawed, but can produce
nice changes on the 18z EPS. stronger vort AND stronger confluence. probably remains as strong, but gets a tick colder if I had to take a guess
wave spacing in the Pacific is a bit better too