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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    the block decaying and the TPV moving towards the 50/50 region are the major factors
  2. brooklynwx99
    500mb looks good on the GEFS so I'm fine with it but yeah, that look on the GEPS would give us the 17th as well as a chance for a big dog when the block decays. that evolution fits the bill
  3. brooklynwx99
    @forkyfork lol
  4. brooklynwx99
    look at this evolution on the GEPS. classic stuff here
  5. brooklynwx99
    the evolution on the GEPS is straight up classic
  6. brooklynwx99
    GEFS and GEPS are different, but are both very nice looks for snowfall to the coast. great patterns here, and both would offer higher end potential
  7. brooklynwx99
    missing the forest for the trees
  8. brooklynwx99
    if you can look at these and be anything but at least a little excited, not sure what to say
  9. brooklynwx99
    overall, though, I do think it's a conducive pattern. strong AK ridging, Arctic airmass, decaying west based -NAO, and TPV in SE Canada. it has a lot going for it, definitely higher end potential
  10. brooklynwx99
    lord knows why there's a SE ridge trying to rear its head still
  11. brooklynwx99
    the TPV is in southeast Canada and is pinned under a block. would be really tough to get a cutter in this pattern. nothing is impossible, but this pattern favors sliders over cutters for sure
  12. brooklynwx99
    using the 10th as a cutter to say that the pattern isn't great is disingenuous. that's been a cutter for like two weeks. the 13th does not look good at this latitude and hasn't for a while. the risk for anything larger is from the 15th to the 23rd or so, and the pattern still looks good for something using ensemble snow means is not the best way to go about analyzing if a pattern is favorable or not
  13. brooklynwx99
    no, they absolutely are not
  14. brooklynwx99
    it's not certain that it won't cut... cutting during that timeframe around the 17th just isn't the favored outcome. suppression seems more likely than a cutter given that pattern
  15. brooklynwx99
    they all disagree
  16. brooklynwx99
    EPS disagrees
  17. brooklynwx99
    good job, GEFS
  18. brooklynwx99
    roads covering in Morristown, moderate snow
  19. brooklynwx99
    AND we should have a reload as the Aleutian Low gets going in February
  20. brooklynwx99
    i will take a HECS over nickels and dimes every day of the week lmao
  21. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it’s once the block decays. Arctic airmass in place, decaying WB -NAO, AK ridge, TPV moving towards the 50/50 region, and PNA building. all the pieces are there
  22. brooklynwx99
    wow canonical EP Nino, my ass
  23. brooklynwx99
    legit KU pattern develops because of this storm
  24. brooklynwx99
    christ
  25. brooklynwx99
    i mean... this is pretty awesome. the GEFS looking like this now is big. it was the holdout before
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