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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    using the 10th as a cutter to say that the pattern isn't great is disingenuous. that's been a cutter for like two weeks. the 13th does not look good at this latitude and hasn't for a while. the risk for anything larger is from the 15th to the 23rd or so, and the pattern still looks good for something using ensemble snow means is not the best way to go about analyzing if a pattern is favorable or not
  2. brooklynwx99
    no, they absolutely are not
  3. brooklynwx99
    it's not certain that it won't cut... cutting during that timeframe around the 17th just isn't the favored outcome. suppression seems more likely than a cutter given that pattern
  4. brooklynwx99
    they all disagree
  5. brooklynwx99
    EPS disagrees
  6. brooklynwx99
    good job, GEFS
  7. brooklynwx99
    roads covering in Morristown, moderate snow
  8. brooklynwx99
    AND we should have a reload as the Aleutian Low gets going in February
  9. brooklynwx99
    i will take a HECS over nickels and dimes every day of the week lmao
  10. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it’s once the block decays. Arctic airmass in place, decaying WB -NAO, AK ridge, TPV moving towards the 50/50 region, and PNA building. all the pieces are there
  11. brooklynwx99
    wow canonical EP Nino, my ass
  12. brooklynwx99
    legit KU pattern develops because of this storm
  13. brooklynwx99
    christ
  14. brooklynwx99
    i mean... this is pretty awesome. the GEFS looking like this now is big. it was the holdout before
  15. brooklynwx99
    i don't think this year will fail us in the PNA department when it matters in February
  16. brooklynwx99
    heights out west are trending a lot better on the GEFS
  17. brooklynwx99
    yes, we lag with the MJO and we'd get a period of warmth, prob the last week of Jan before the Aleutian low develops. all looks on track to me
  18. brooklynwx99
    heights out west are trending a lot better
  19. brooklynwx99
    heights out west are trending a lot better
  20. brooklynwx99
    Feb still looks good. the MJO traverses through the crappier phases pretty quickly and the rising air over the MC is replaced with subsidence
  21. brooklynwx99
  22. brooklynwx99
    GEFS made another tick towards the EPS and GEPS, not hanging as much of the trough back
  23. brooklynwx99
    GEFS made another tick towards the EPS and GEPS, not hanging as much of the trough back
  24. brooklynwx99
    GFS made good changes towards the ECMWF/CMC this run
  25. brooklynwx99
    reminds me of late Jan into early Feb in 2021
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