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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    i agree there. it's also possible that the trough buckles enough to make the whole point moot. but yes, there is certainly the potential for more southern stream influence between now and the next 10 days
  2. brooklynwx99
    this month will look nothing like those years on the mean:
  3. brooklynwx99
    @40/70 Benchmark this canonical enough for you? nothing says EP super Nino like a huge west-based -NAO and arctic outbreak in mid-January lmao
  4. brooklynwx99
    no changes
  5. brooklynwx99
    just to be clear, I am not advertising a KU at 10 days out lmao. want to make that very clear however, it's becoming evident that the pattern progression holds high end potential as it breaks down. this is often the case, and it holds historical precedent
  6. brooklynwx99
    i do want to stress that caution needs to be exercised, but it's worth noting that the advertised pattern evolution on the EPS is reminiscent of some of NYC's largest storms. this isn't to say that we're going to get one or anything like that... just trying to show the potential that these west-based blocking patterns do have when timed up with a PNA spike out west and established Arctic air the similarities are uncanny
  7. brooklynwx99
    there is no way in hell that ensemble modeling will pick such a feature out at 10 days
  8. brooklynwx99
    there are hints that there could be a vort traversing the southern US. I think this would be northern stream driven overall, but that can absolutely change. better to focus on the overall pattern right now, which is about as good as can be
  9. brooklynwx99
    wow at the EPS for the 19-20th
  10. brooklynwx99
    stronger PV lobe into the 50/50 region makes all the difference
  11. brooklynwx99
    i don't like using those composites at this range, but i saw how similar it was and just had to mention it seriously though, the synoptics are ripe for a big one around that time, just gotta put it together
  12. brooklynwx99
    since you asked. it's honestly uncanny how similar the OP is to some huge storms of the past. love the evolution now, just want to keep the signal on ENS
  13. brooklynwx99
    the 20th is seriously legit. you have every single synoptic piece here: decaying WB -NAO Arctic antecedent airmass 50/50 ULL transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP amplifying vort upstream this period has been showing up on ensembles and now OP runs are beginning to sniff it out. large storms often follow decaying WB -NAOs, so this is definitely a period of high interest
  14. brooklynwx99
    the 20th is seriously legit. you have every single synoptic piece here: decaying WB -NAO Arctic antecedent airmass huge 50/50 ULL transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP amplifying vort upstream this period has been showing up on ensembles and now OP runs are beginning to sniff it out. large storms often follow decaying WB -NAOs, so this is definitely a period of high interest
  15. brooklynwx99
    jesus christ. the 20th is seriously legit. you have every single synoptic piece here: decaying WB -NAO Arctic antecedent airmass huge 50/50 ULL transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP amplifying vort upstream
  16. brooklynwx99
    we still have 20 days in the month left, and you guys can certainly get hit by something in the meantime. but just for the sake of argument, here are a few months where BWI got a trace or an inch of snowfall... for the whole month. surprising, no? and these were all like 30-40 years ago, too. sometimes you just get screwed. I know everyone wants to have a reason for why everything happens, but it's as simple as that sometimes. Feb 1977 is especially lol-worthy lmao
  17. brooklynwx99
    what do you think the answer to that question is going to be
  18. brooklynwx99
    I'm sure ski resorts felt the same way in 2013-15
  19. brooklynwx99
    i think people definitely underestimate luck and the little minutiae that go into every storm. NYC south needs luck to snow more than like 1-3". it's a significant component given that so much can go wrong. we seem to have run out for the last year and change, but it will be back
  20. brooklynwx99
    still think that the 19-20th is the best crack at something bigger. everything is there synoptically, you just need a strong impulse, which remains to be seen. but you have the decaying block, Rockies ridge, confluence, and amplifying OH Valley trough. hopefully modeling picks up on it a bit more in the coming days, but EPS and GEPS are sniffing it out
  21. brooklynwx99
    personally, if I were to put my eggs in one basket, it would definitely be for the 19-20th. everything is there synoptically, just a matter of if a wave can pop or not... all the features are there, though - decaying WB -NAO, Rockies ridge, 50/50 confluence from the TPV
  22. brooklynwx99
    yeah, you aren't very warm with the Pacific like that. would last for a week, at most
  23. brooklynwx99
    i think it’s a really good pattern and people are a bit gun shy. if this pattern popped up in the medium range in 2014 everyone would be disrobing
  24. brooklynwx99
    it’s more so that if a wave does get picked up (which is certainly the case), it will have a top tier synoptic pattern to work with
  25. brooklynwx99
    50/50 ULL with decaying block shows up afterwards. just need a strong wave
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