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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    granted, it's farther south because it has more confluence from the northern stream, not because it's less amplified. it's actually way more amped with the southern stream than the ECMWF so, although it's farther south, it doesn't seem to be due to its typical bias. for the record, I still think it's wrong, but it has a bit more validity this time since the differences between it and the other models are actually pretty small, and the northern stream can absolutely destructively interfere instead of phasing
  2. brooklynwx99
    like this is where it's at. really nice evolution here, and it makes sense PNA ridge spike, weakening block, and southern stream vort slips underneath the flow
  3. brooklynwx99
    potent signal as the Pacific trough retrogrades is still showing up. this is the best shot at a MECS IMO
  4. brooklynwx99
    years like 2010 and 2016 had a strong Pacific trough and potent STJ like this one. seeing blue colors off the WC isn't some death knell if you have blocking and Alaskan ridging
  5. brooklynwx99
    i wouldn't say that anything has gotten pushed back at all, it just looks like there's less spread along the WC. members differed on where to place the greatest positive anomalies, and they ended up more into AK, which is better for cold air supply, if anything the 50/50 ULL is also stronger. i don't see an issue here
  6. brooklynwx99
    whoops meant to say that the Pacific trough off the WC will retrograde into more of a typical Aleutian low. whatevs lmao
  7. brooklynwx99
    i'd probably lean towards a ECMWF/UKMET blend at this point, makes the most sense. CMC looks too diffuse and rainy while the GFS is likely too far south
  8. brooklynwx99
    meh there's no real way to know at all of it's one and done. blocking likely resurfaces from Scandinavia given the SPV weakening and the Aleutian low will retrograde. bird in the hand is worth two in the bush anyway
  9. brooklynwx99
    with all of the agonizing over OP runs, we're still looking at a cold, active pattern with a tall AK ridge, west based -NAO blocking, confluence, and a Pacific trough undercutting. the more you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, the more things look the same
  10. brooklynwx99
    with all of the agonizing over OP runs, we're still looking at a cold, active pattern with a tall AK ridge, west based -NAO blocking, confluence, and a Pacific trough undercutting. the more you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, the more things look the same
  11. brooklynwx99
    nice to know that we will have multiple shots in the chamber. sign of an actual good pattern
  12. brooklynwx99
    @ORH_wxman GEFS is still showing the Rockies ridge spike as the Pacific trough retros. block is weakening too. this is probably the most favorable period synoptically for a region wide significant storm
  13. brooklynwx99
    really nice evolution, can see the Rockies ridge spike as the Pacific trough retrogrades
  14. brooklynwx99
    "weak blocking pattern" lol literally a pristine 2 sigma block over the Davis Strait at 300 hours out
  15. brooklynwx99
    this is a highly anomalous blocking signal... we're talking 250-350m anomalies at like 13 days out
  16. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks like this. the OP is out to lunch
  17. brooklynwx99
    pretty weak blocking signal? really?
  18. brooklynwx99
    lol OP GFS has been showing dumb shit for like two weeks that the GEFS doesn’t even agree with
  19. brooklynwx99
    holy crap
  20. brooklynwx99
    there was a HECS on Feb 15-17, though, and one in late March
  21. brooklynwx99
    it isn't, but you have a very potent southern stream vort, fresh Arctic cold, and a potential phase with a northern stream vort. plus the 50/50 ULL. pieces are in place
  22. brooklynwx99
    this is apparently "awful" now. god bless
  23. brooklynwx99
    the patterns? that's easy. here you go! they actually all verified, look at that unfortunately, great patterns do not guarantee snow. they only increase the odds. something can always go wrong, and we have had really bad luck. but you already know this and are being purposefully inflammatory
  24. brooklynwx99
    that third one as the Pacific trough retrogrades, the block weakens, and the PNA rises looks very legit. it's actually the same general process as 2016
  25. brooklynwx99
    this shows split flow, with moist air from the STJ meeting up with powerful confluence from the 50/50 ULL. might not be a very powerful LP, but the thermal gradient could lead to a lot of precip. the 50/50 locks in the cold, as well
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