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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    definitely a trend to phase the kicker in earlier, leading to a much better PVA axis overhead. i'm inclined to believe the GFS is wrong, but this is worth watching
  2. brooklynwx99
    that kicker has certainly trended faster, leading to a more cohesive phase. inclined to believe the GFS is on crack, but this is a convincing trend
  3. brooklynwx99
    exactly. the close the shades stuff is ridiculous with ensembles agreeing on a 2-3 sigma -NAO combined with an Alaskan ridge
  4. brooklynwx99
    this wave breaking is a thing of beauty on the OP GFS
  5. brooklynwx99
    again, you want to be N of 78 and along or west of 287 to have a good shot at plowable snowfall from this. set expectations to zero near the city
  6. brooklynwx99
    EPS trend over the last two model cycles. same story as the GEFS with the trailing wave. definitely ups the CCB potential IMO
  7. brooklynwx99
    positive vorticity advection. basically moving vorticity from one place to the other. that kind of signature would encourage a deform band to form. just not sure if it's a legit trend or nonsense. FWIW, the CMC has also been trending in that direction
  8. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is actually steadily trending towards the kicker S/W phasing with the trough and creating its own axis of PVA. this would have pretty big implications for you guys and even down here into LI/LHV/NNJ
  9. brooklynwx99
    GEFS has been steadily trending towards the kicker phasing with the trough as it moves out. it now has potent PVA and a legit deform signal for LI. would need to monitor this in future runs and on other guidance
  10. brooklynwx99
    the kicker actually phases into the main vort at the end and lets the CCB blossom
  11. brooklynwx99
    GFS looks great. stronger surface HP and a more organized S/W
  12. brooklynwx99
    anyway, this is looking quite good for you guys
  13. brooklynwx99
    thanks for letting me know i live rent free in your head. hope you're having a good day
  14. brooklynwx99
    could also drift SE. the ECMWF has an overamped bias
  15. brooklynwx99
    EPS is snowier for pretty much everyone. it's literally not warm lmao people near the City need to manage expectations... this is really a NW of 95 or even a i-287 and west storm. would also want to be north of I-78. but seeing the 10th percentile and median like this is quite encouraging. probs of 3 and 6" are also quite high for many
  16. brooklynwx99
    if we're going to overanalyze OP runs, the CMC would be sick. that massive western vort would get squeezed under the block with a 50/50 developing
  17. brooklynwx99
    kicker is weaker and confluence hangs on longer. makes all the difference
  18. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is on board
  19. brooklynwx99
    2015-16 style that kind of pattern reminds me more of Jan 2011 / Feb 2021 / Mar 2018 though
  20. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is in a perfect spot right now honestly
  21. brooklynwx99
    literally every positive change on the GEFS. better confluence, weaker kicker, and more potent vort
  22. brooklynwx99
    this is NASTY. jet streak, isentropic lift, and 700mb WAA/FGEN all collocated
  23. brooklynwx99
    love to see the confluence make a notable shift stronger on both the GFS and CMC so far. increases surface HP strength and compresses the flow so that even a weaker S/W has more bang for its buck AND is colder
  24. brooklynwx99
    the shift stronger in the confluence is important. helps compress the flow, increasing uplift and strengthening surface HP
  25. brooklynwx99
    you want the GFS in this spot at this range
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