Jump to content

brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
  • Posts

    5,669
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. he's not even talking about the right storm lmao
  2. UKMET is the second highest scoring model. the GFS is the worst major model lmao still
  3. you guys are going to be a hot mess if you lean on the OP runs this much. follow the ensembles. I wouldn't even say there's been a trend towards one solution or the other, we have another model cycle before anything like that can be said
  4. i would not really focus on the ICON's thermals lmao
  5. i think we've pretty much gone full Nino at this point
  6. looks like the -NAO is caused by wave breaking from the cutter on the 10th
  7. I would be more worried about suppression than an inland runner here. the trough crashing in the west argues for a more progressive outcome, if anything the 50/50 is in a good spot too. HP over the top, it's definitely worth watching. flawed, but can produce
  8. yeah at this point, I think the 5th only serves to act as a 50/50 for the 7th. still need a phase there in some capacity
  9. I would say that's a pretty convincing signal at this lead time
  10. GEFS looks good. stronger vort and better confluence. 250mb jet is more meridional as well
  11. not to hype, but that 50/50 is classic. this is a legit threat
  12. not to hype, but that 50/50 is classic. this is a legit threat
  13. nice changes on the 18z EPS. stronger vort AND stronger confluence. probably remains as strong, but gets a tick colder if I had to take a guess wave spacing in the Pacific is a bit better too
  14. stronger 50/50 and a lot colder, though. I think the changes were good overall
  15. yup. it wasn't there a couple of days ago, but if it is real, it's a game changer and makes this threat viable. helps lock in confluence and a cold HP in SE Canada. SFC temps are not a problem as a result. we need to see this maintain on ensembles
  16. i will say this. if this 50/50 is real, it is game on. that feature is a game changer and forces the vort under the block while locking in HP in a perfect spot in SE Canada
  17. there has to be phasing with some of those EPS members, no? i find it hard to believe you could get sub-985mb members with just the southern stream
  18. a 2 sigma block at 12 days out is a serious signal. hope we can see this hold… this is the kind of block that can take over a pattern
  19. gotta take your chances with amped lows here. weak sauce won’t work
  20. 959 LOL there has to be phasing with some of these. only way these lows can get that deep
×
×
  • Create New...