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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    jesus christ. the 20th is seriously legit. you have every single synoptic piece here: decaying WB -NAO Arctic antecedent airmass huge 50/50 ULL transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP amplifying vort upstream
  2. brooklynwx99
    we still have 20 days in the month left, and you guys can certainly get hit by something in the meantime. but just for the sake of argument, here are a few months where BWI got a trace or an inch of snowfall... for the whole month. surprising, no? and these were all like 30-40 years ago, too. sometimes you just get screwed. I know everyone wants to have a reason for why everything happens, but it's as simple as that sometimes. Feb 1977 is especially lol-worthy lmao
  3. brooklynwx99
    what do you think the answer to that question is going to be
  4. brooklynwx99
    I'm sure ski resorts felt the same way in 2013-15
  5. brooklynwx99
    i think people definitely underestimate luck and the little minutiae that go into every storm. NYC south needs luck to snow more than like 1-3". it's a significant component given that so much can go wrong. we seem to have run out for the last year and change, but it will be back
  6. brooklynwx99
    still think that the 19-20th is the best crack at something bigger. everything is there synoptically, you just need a strong impulse, which remains to be seen. but you have the decaying block, Rockies ridge, confluence, and amplifying OH Valley trough. hopefully modeling picks up on it a bit more in the coming days, but EPS and GEPS are sniffing it out
  7. brooklynwx99
    personally, if I were to put my eggs in one basket, it would definitely be for the 19-20th. everything is there synoptically, just a matter of if a wave can pop or not... all the features are there, though - decaying WB -NAO, Rockies ridge, 50/50 confluence from the TPV
  8. brooklynwx99
    yeah, you aren't very warm with the Pacific like that. would last for a week, at most
  9. brooklynwx99
    i think it’s a really good pattern and people are a bit gun shy. if this pattern popped up in the medium range in 2014 everyone would be disrobing
  10. brooklynwx99
    it’s more so that if a wave does get picked up (which is certainly the case), it will have a top tier synoptic pattern to work with
  11. brooklynwx99
    50/50 ULL with decaying block shows up afterwards. just need a strong wave
  12. brooklynwx99
    here's the big dog window... decaying block, 50/50, and +PNA. just need a potent wave to amplify in the flow
  13. brooklynwx99
    50/50 ULLs usually form in mature patterns as the block is decaying. this is why I think the 19-20th has greater potential, not to diminish this threat
  14. brooklynwx99
    50/50 looks awesome. this should be a good run
  15. brooklynwx99
    anyway, the GEFS and GEPS both look very good at some point for the 19-20th they all have the major synoptic features in place for a larger storm
  16. brooklynwx99
    it's because the waves phase into the weakness underneath the EPO block. it's centered too far north and heights are able to continue to crash. it makes sense meteorologically
  17. brooklynwx99
    GEFS has a very nice pattern too
  18. brooklynwx99
    idk man it's not really worth worrying about at that range. just seems like an OP run doing a bad job handling a retrograding Rossby wave
  19. brooklynwx99
    I still feel like the bigger threat may end up being the 20th as the blocking decays, but the 17th is certainly worth watching
  20. brooklynwx99
    overall synoptic setup is very favorable on the 20th as the block decays and the TPV vacates towards the 50/50 region. wouldn't be surprised to see models pick up on something here
  21. brooklynwx99
    i know it’s out there, but the 20th really seems like the time for something bigger after the potential event on the 17th. can see the GFS tank heights over the N Atl as the block decays. it fits the general KU progression (just a progression, not guaranteeing anything)
  22. brooklynwx99
    i’m not in denial. you’re kidding yourself if you think the polar domain in the same as those years. that was my point… it’s not a canonical 500mb pattern. not sure why there’s can’t be any nuance in these discussions
  23. brooklynwx99
    also has a favorable setup similar to the other ensembles as the blocking decays. southern stream wave slips under the PNA ridge with a 50/50 in place
  24. brooklynwx99
    EPS is way more favorable than the OP with lower heights in SE Canada
  25. brooklynwx99
    nice pattern evolution here as the blocking decays and the TPV moves into the 50/50 region. GEFS and GEPS both try to amplify a wave in its wake
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