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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    here's the big dog window... decaying block, 50/50, and +PNA. just need a potent wave to amplify in the flow
  2. brooklynwx99
    50/50 ULLs usually form in mature patterns as the block is decaying. this is why I think the 19-20th has greater potential, not to diminish this threat
  3. brooklynwx99
    50/50 looks awesome. this should be a good run
  4. brooklynwx99
    anyway, the GEFS and GEPS both look very good at some point for the 19-20th they all have the major synoptic features in place for a larger storm
  5. brooklynwx99
    it's because the waves phase into the weakness underneath the EPO block. it's centered too far north and heights are able to continue to crash. it makes sense meteorologically
  6. brooklynwx99
    GEFS has a very nice pattern too
  7. brooklynwx99
    idk man it's not really worth worrying about at that range. just seems like an OP run doing a bad job handling a retrograding Rossby wave
  8. brooklynwx99
    I still feel like the bigger threat may end up being the 20th as the blocking decays, but the 17th is certainly worth watching
  9. brooklynwx99
    overall synoptic setup is very favorable on the 20th as the block decays and the TPV vacates towards the 50/50 region. wouldn't be surprised to see models pick up on something here
  10. brooklynwx99
    i know it’s out there, but the 20th really seems like the time for something bigger after the potential event on the 17th. can see the GFS tank heights over the N Atl as the block decays. it fits the general KU progression (just a progression, not guaranteeing anything)
  11. brooklynwx99
    i’m not in denial. you’re kidding yourself if you think the polar domain in the same as those years. that was my point… it’s not a canonical 500mb pattern. not sure why there’s can’t be any nuance in these discussions
  12. brooklynwx99
    also has a favorable setup similar to the other ensembles as the blocking decays. southern stream wave slips under the PNA ridge with a 50/50 in place
  13. brooklynwx99
    EPS is way more favorable than the OP with lower heights in SE Canada
  14. brooklynwx99
    nice pattern evolution here as the blocking decays and the TPV moves into the 50/50 region. GEFS and GEPS both try to amplify a wave in its wake
  15. brooklynwx99
    want to wait a couple of days here, but if the amplification is real as the TPV moves into that spot and the block decays, might be honk time. lmao
  16. brooklynwx99
    can see energy working in from the south, too
  17. brooklynwx99
    this is much better in the Atlantic afterwards. just need a wave to slip underneath
  18. brooklynwx99
    then, the MJO moves into the central Pacific and the Aleutian Low develops
  19. brooklynwx99
    i think it’s the Niña background state
  20. brooklynwx99
    also, canonical EP super Nino, my ass
  21. brooklynwx99
    I was always talking about mid-Jan as the main turning point. sure the Weeklies were nice and I posted them, but those took a back seat to the general pattern progression, which seems to be occurring now
  22. brooklynwx99
    overrunning? i can see it. way out there, of course
  23. brooklynwx99
    that 500mb ridge is also deceiving. with the cold airmass already in place along with a -EPO and 50/50, it's actually a better pattern than it looks
  24. brooklynwx99
    I would expect more confluence to show up with blocking like this. that's usually how these kinds of pattern correct
  25. brooklynwx99
    no changes
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