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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    to be fair, there's been a shocking lack of interest in a potential snow event for the metro (however little it may be), which is pretty disheartening there's literally a dude from Philly doing PBP lmao
  2. brooklynwx99
    yes, the antecedent airmass is terrible, which is why a slower storm is better. colder air would rush in from the northern stream
  3. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF continues slowing the vort down and amping it up... better PNA ridge initially is likely the culprit slower is better as the northern stream has a better chance to catch up
  4. brooklynwx99
    the PNA is also initially stronger, so the shortwave is a bit slower and more amped. we want slower here since it allows for more interaction with the energy diving through the Lakes as well as having the benefit of a slightly colder airmass
  5. brooklynwx99
    i don't think it will either, I just think that if it does, it would be a good thing rather than a bad thing. it likely continues progressing into either the western Pacific or the Indian Ocean
  6. brooklynwx99
    it’s fine if the MJO craps out and the wave dies. then you just get typical Nino forcing and a strong Aleutian low. the MJO isn’t the only thing that forces patterns
  7. brooklynwx99
    yeah, vort is stronger / slower and there are way more tucked in lows. it's a pretty big shift from the EPS at this range. usually it's slow to move
  8. brooklynwx99
    no, i seem to be living in your head. at least ask me to pay rent
  9. brooklynwx99
    i love that ensembles are confirming the weeklies. that pattern evolution makes sense and it seems like all ensembles are getting there we’ll see more Greenland blocking develop as the N ATL trough intensifies
  10. brooklynwx99
    yes, likely between the 10th and 15th if i had to take a guess
  11. brooklynwx99
    the EPS and other ENS are following the weeklies to a T. get the STJ in the west to connect with the N Atl trough and all of a sudden, you’re in a very good pattern
  12. brooklynwx99
    nice to see the EPS and all other ENS following the weeklies nearly verbatim. you’re a few days from slipping the STJ under the Canadian block and connecting it to the N Atl trough and you’re in a great pattern very quickly. that evolution also encourages a -NAO via wave breaking as well
  13. brooklynwx99
    you end up here on the OP... you're very quickly moving to a good to great pattern here. lots is in motion
  14. brooklynwx99
    from a perspective of providing actionable information to clients, which is what i do, “warm and snowy” will make their heads explode. that is tough to convey clearly for laymen
  15. brooklynwx99
    i’ll put it this way. if 8/10 years are AN, then what is really “normal” at that point? when does a new one get defined?
  16. brooklynwx99
    that’s why i can’t give him too many props. something about blind squirrels
  17. brooklynwx99
    when wouldn’t you, then? weak ENSO? neutral winters? tough to say
  18. brooklynwx99
    being correct and being able to provide an accurate picture of how the winter may play out are two different things. Feb could easily be AN from the first week and drop 30” in two weeks in the MA. how would one reconcile that in a forecast?
  19. brooklynwx99
    who knows. going AN every year does not provide much value, though
  20. brooklynwx99
    it's annoying that the warm periods are SO warm that they skew things. i feel like the overall tenor of the winter has been close to the same as forecast... shit Dec with next to no hope, a transitionary Jan that's still warmer than normal, and then a good to great Feb. the +EAMT just pushed things back a week or so, but there's no way to see that in November
  21. brooklynwx99
    this winter was always going to come down to one or two big ones. I don't see anything throwing a wrench in that right now
  22. brooklynwx99
    nothing has happened to it. speculation has become extremely negative, but it's just speculation. there's no actual evidence that we won't enter a favorable, more typical Nino pattern in mid-February besides persistence (this winter has not been a good example of persistence, by the way) and vibes
  23. brooklynwx99
    one should probably wait until February is over to make such a statement
  24. brooklynwx99
    granted, you'd end up in quite a favorable pattern around the 10-15th as that SW trough slips under the Canadian blocking and the Aleutian Low maintains the -EPO/+PNA, but yeah, it would torch for a week before then. wave breaking could also lead to a -NAO. this is the same evolution extended guidance has, and it's similar to what happened this month when the Pacific jet overextended in late Dec not sure if anyone really cares about any of that, though
  25. brooklynwx99
    the MJO is a bit overstated. nobody gave a flying fuck about it from like 2003 until 2021 until the last couple of winters. they didn't really care because it just kept snowing... now people need to overattribute the lack of snow to a single variable when it isn't that simple is it important? absolutely! but it's not the end all be all
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