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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    the stronger SPV doesn’t couple, so Judah’s point doesn’t even hold water
  2. brooklynwx99
    charles this is a massive 230kt jet extension
  3. brooklynwx99
    lends a lot more credence to the Weeklies when all of the ENS are playing out in the same way it's quite similar to the last jet extension that we saw, but this time we'll have a strong Aleutian low to allow for strong shortwaves to enter the flow... sign me up
  4. brooklynwx99
    the agreement on all ensembles as well as extended guidance is pretty remarkable. slip that excess momentum under the Canadian ridge and connect it with the N Atl trough and BANG textbook Aleutian Low, too
  5. brooklynwx99
    it's a very similar progression to what we saw from late December into early-mid January. this time, though, we should have an actual Aleutian Low as well as shorter wavelengths and a more active STJ
  6. brooklynwx99
    it does look like we're going to see the same jet overextension and retraction that led to the very favorable pattern this month. this time, though, it'll be in Feb with shorter wavelengths and a more potent Aleutian low to allow for stronger shortwaves to enter the flow
  7. brooklynwx99
    the difference between the advertised pattern and the one that we just had is the presence of a large GoA / Aleutian low that allows for potent southern stream shortwaves to enter the flow. the previous pattern pretty much shut off the mechanism for those larger waves
  8. brooklynwx99
    a good portion of the MA is AN on the year. i would say it has
  9. brooklynwx99
    it's impossible to actually have any sort of debate on this because there isn't enough data yet, and people mainly just use anecdotes and a lot of confirmation bias. i'm sure that there have been snow events that climate change helped out or made more prolific than they would normally be
  10. brooklynwx99
    even if you slice the positive anomalies in half, you don't want a +6C airmass heading into any kind of snowfall event. it likely wouldn't work regardless. for as many flawed snow events, we also got a shit ton of rain, but nobody cares about the 8/10 times that it rained in these kinds of patterns fair, I get your overall point, but that's not a setup that would have worked in a long time. it's too warm leading in
  11. brooklynwx99
    i'll have agree to disagree on that one
  12. brooklynwx99
    yeah you're getting that trough to roll under the ridge and lead to wave breaking. it's moving forward in time and is supported by extended guidance so it seems legit for now
  13. brooklynwx99
    i don't think this would have snowed in 1873 with this antecedent airmass
  14. brooklynwx99
    yes, I can see a lobe from the TPV extending and providing “fake” confluence
  15. brooklynwx99
    i agree. and yes, the same point you mentioned in your last post is similar to March 2014 when the NAO was so positive that systems got suppressed the “+NAO is good” stuff is BS
  16. brooklynwx99
    roll it forward a few days
  17. brooklynwx99
    the extension likely forces a -PNA that can lead to another blocking episode. combine with an Aleutian Low and slightly retracted jet and bang
  18. brooklynwx99
    there was a +EAMT that overextended the jet. we’ll see a good pattern once the jet inevitably retracts, similar to what happened this week
  19. brooklynwx99
    looks like there’s a potentially legit PNA spike before the Pacific jet becomes too much to handle. 3 sigma at near our latitude is no joke
  20. brooklynwx99
    i wouldn’t exactly consider that a torch considering that the first few days of that window can skew the whole thing above average
  21. brooklynwx99
    it's the same evolution that led to this current pattern, but in better climo and with shorter wavelengths. it's annoying for sure, but I don't see it ending winter or anything like that
  22. brooklynwx99
    +EAMT led to too much momentum in the jet. we will have to wait until the jet retracts, which it will. those momentum bursts don't last for very long they're great in Ninas where we need the jet to extend, but it's too much of a good thing here
  23. brooklynwx99
    exactly. it's really frustrating, but everything was in place for a big one and the minute details just didn't line up. the overall pattern was very good, but you still need everything to come together
  24. brooklynwx99
    that's not how that works. read Will's post above since you seem to not want to hear it from me
  25. brooklynwx99
    the pattern didn't fail because it was too warm. it's way more than cold enough it's because of crappy little nuances that are impossible to forecast more than 10 days out, like the positioning of the TPV, the exact height of the western ridge, and the interplay between shortwaves
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