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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    this time, it looks like we do indeed have a dominant SS with a weaker NS coming over the top. this is what you want for bigger, moisture laden storms
  2. brooklynwx99
    I see what you mean, I would just wait until we get a better Aleutian low to form with + heights poking into AK, analogs should be much better by that point. that looks too overwhelming at that moment, which is probably why 1998 is the top analog lmao
  3. brooklynwx99
    I also think that a lot of the extended modeling showing a dry month for Feb are skewed by how dry the first 10 days or so are. storm track looks active once we actually get into that more favorable pattern
  4. brooklynwx99
    you do have a potent STJ undercutting, so I think it increases the odds. the mid-Jan pattern had no STJ and it still managed to produce
  5. brooklynwx99
    well yeah, they're centered when the pattern looks like this, of course the analogs are going to be pretty crappy
  6. brooklynwx99
    crazy that we keep consistently seeing split flow like this
  7. brooklynwx99
  8. brooklynwx99
    if this is looking this good and the blocking signal is strengthening around the middle of next week, I'm going all in on this. everything seems to be coming together
  9. brooklynwx99
    wave breaking in quotes like it's some voodoo term. I can't
  10. brooklynwx99
    bump
  11. brooklynwx99
    same on the EPS. we have very good agreement today
  12. brooklynwx99
    I think the coast would do fine there given the low heights extending into the N Atl with the trough axis overhead. most amplification looks to occur offshore there. also, that block is in the process of retrograding and extending westward I do think the interior is favored with the initial storm around the 14-15th, though
  13. brooklynwx99
    nothing has gotten pushed back... it's been very consistently modeled
  14. brooklynwx99
    one could argue it's actually getting pushed quicker with time, definitely no pushing back here
  15. brooklynwx99
    GEFS and GEPS both look very good for mid-month. tall WC ridge building into AK, building -NAO, split flow, and deep E US trough
  16. brooklynwx99
    what are you talking about?
  17. brooklynwx99
    it'll look better in a few days when it has the -NAO retrograding
  18. brooklynwx99
    well, this is where we're at so far today. absolutely stellar looks from the GEFS and GEPS, and everything is moving forward in time
  19. brooklynwx99
    absurd split flow
  20. brooklynwx99
    it really is annoying, because the mid-Jan period was ripe with potential and just didn't deliver. had it done so, it completely would have changed the tenor of the winter and many would have been sitting with a significant event under their belts. but of course not
  21. brooklynwx99
    the upcoming pattern would provide the chance for a torrid comeback from Feb 15 through early March... about as good of a chance as any. but I get that people are jaded. it's been tremendously frustrating
  22. brooklynwx99
    I would say through the 10-15th. these patterns are usually quite stable once they form and are often broken by a bigger storm. Nino climo should take over during the second half of the month
  23. brooklynwx99
    yeah sure
  24. brooklynwx99
    significant is 6", major is 12", and historic is 18"
  25. brooklynwx99
    everything still looks on track for mid-month... MJO moving into favorable phases, equatorward Pacific jet extension will foster strong Aleutian low development, split flow, building -NAO via wave breaking in the N Atl. all ensembles are in really good agreement temporally and spatially i'd like to give it another week to get this into a better range, but it looks good
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