brooklynwx99

in terms of cold analog years, a scenario like 2013-14 makes way more sense than 2010-11

this is a really impressive trend. wouldn't be surprised to see waters near Japan cool and waters in the GoAK warm given the upcoming pattern

the MJO also isn't a silver bullet. it often correlates to the broader pattern but there are times where it doesn't have much of an impact I do anticipate the models to get a bit warmer for early Dec, though it doesn't have to happen

yeah seeing the persistent troughing over Japan and N of HI is encouraging. the PDO would also continue to rise if these troughs were to develop. nice seeing the cross polar flow as well... we've had ineffective -EPOs with a +WPO alongside them in recent years

why are you even bothering with him

are we really posting 300 hour OP runs in the Niña thread

i will never understand why they decided to run the weeklies every day

i could see a warm spell in mid December, but even the colder years like 2013 had such a spell. the beginning of Dec 2013 was a torch we’ll have to see how the end of Nov plays out

functionally, I feel like that composite acts like a +NAO. Atlantic flow is fast there

if we do end up going the colder route this winter (which i do not expect is the case as of now), then something like a 2021-22 / 2013-14 blend looks reasonable general tendency towards +PNA, a -WPO that encroaches on the -EPO domain, a largely -NAO, and an elongated PV in SE Canada

can't say these don't match up pretty well either

now, it's another can of worms as to whether modeling will be correct. we'll find out in the coming weeks, though the +PNA/-EPO pattern is moving forward in time if late Nov does indeed feature a +PNA/-EPO pattern, it will make me more optimistic for the +TNH pattern that people like Webb are hinting at

the pattern that closes out November might be crucial for determining the flavor of the overall winter. given that we're seeing a pretty favorable winter pattern showing itself on medium to long range guidance, i wanted to see if it would have any predictive power for the winter i did some digging on the analogs which i find viable: 1983-84, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2001-02, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14, 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23. better analogs are bolded i plotted the pattern from Nov 19-29 (basically just a 10 day stretch in late Nov) and the resulting winter pattern. the results were interesting... most years had a decent to strong correlation between the late Nov pattern and the overall winter, mainly in the Pacific there are years like 1998-99, 1999-00, 2010-11, 2011-12, and 2013-14 that had late Nov periods that strongly correlated to the following winter. years like 2011-12 and 1998-99 were near dead ringers... years that went into Dec with a potent AK trough often had it linger for the winter. years like 2010-11 aren't as airtight, but the Pacific patterns were very similar years like 2001-02, 2008-09, 2020-21, and 2021-22 had a decent correlation, mainly in the Pacific. for example, although there was no early -NAO blocking in 2020-21, the Pacific patterns are nearly identical. the patterns for 2021-22 aren't perfectly matched, but late Nov picked up on the +PNA tendency that would lead to a cold Jan (2008-09 is similar). 2001-02 had a EC ridge that never really went away with -PNA rearing its head early the other four years had little to no correlation, like 2012-13: overall, 9/13 years had at least a decent correlation, and 5 of those 9 were strongly correlated IMO. this isn't a perfect science by any means, though it does provide some numbers to the age-old "when does winter start showing itself" question

this doesn't look to be the case as we draw later into the month but we'll see how modeling does

lol apparently Ben Noll is the harbinger of truth while Webb is useless. wonder why Webb is a pompous ass at times, but he is a smart guy

yeah i can't act like the blocking with -EPO/-WPO showing up isn't a positive sign

i can definitely see that happening. there are reasons to believe this could actually be a decent to good winter. 2013-14, 2020-21, and 2021-22 are all good analogs i just don't think anyone has the balls (including myself personally or professionally) to actually pull the trigger. better to go conservative in this -PDO regime and bust low

near 3 sigma block next week likely provides opportunities for storminess... would watch the 5-7 days afterwards for any wintry chances in climo spots like NW NJ and N of 84

amazing work. I agree that 2021-22 likely matches the flavor of this year the best

can't really advertise snow at this juncture, too early outside of the normal climo spots in the interior and up into NNE. just bodes well IMO. rather see that than a black hole setting up over AK

obviously, take with a grain of salt, but it doesn't hurt to see ridging setting up over the WC/AK at the end of November on longer range guidance no real snow risk here, just bodes well IMO

obviously, take with a grain of salt, but it doesn't hurt to see ridging setting up over the WC/AK at the end of November on longer range guidance