brooklynwx99

looks like there’s a potentially legit PNA spike before the Pacific jet becomes too much to handle. 3 sigma at near our latitude is no joke

i wouldn’t exactly consider that a torch considering that the first few days of that window can skew the whole thing above average

it's the same evolution that led to this current pattern, but in better climo and with shorter wavelengths. it's annoying for sure, but I don't see it ending winter or anything like that

+EAMT led to too much momentum in the jet. we will have to wait until the jet retracts, which it will. those momentum bursts don't last for very long they're great in Ninas where we need the jet to extend, but it's too much of a good thing here

exactly. it's really frustrating, but everything was in place for a big one and the minute details just didn't line up. the overall pattern was very good, but you still need everything to come together

that's not how that works. read Will's post above since you seem to not want to hear it from me

the pattern didn't fail because it was too warm. it's way more than cold enough it's because of crappy little nuances that are impossible to forecast more than 10 days out, like the positioning of the TPV, the exact height of the western ridge, and the interplay between shortwaves

a favorable pattern does not guarantee favorable results. it just increases the odds. how many times does this need to be said? it's so disingenuous to imply that those that forecasted a favorable pattern were wrong. that's BS I was not wrong when I, and many others, said that the pattern would be favorable. it was, and we got fucked. that's all there is to say, and it's frustrating

"kicking the can" implies that nothing has changed. there was, in fact, a wholesale change in the pattern at the start of the month. this is 18 days of a favorable pattern... saying that the mid to late December didn't change is also completely disingenuous we rely on luck a lot more than people would like to admit, and our luck has been in the toilet. the ship will get righted at some point

nobody is arguing that the pattern beforehand didn't suck. why are you being a dick for no reason?

regression to the mean sucks. what else can you say

it was a 10 day stretch. if you told me that NYC, HFD, and BOS combined would get 1" from this, I would not believe you

we got our favorable pattern, sorry it didn't produce a blizzard over your house

yeah, i think it’s more like Feb 10-Mar 10 instead of Feb 1-Mar 1. i get that it’s frustrating and perhaps even annoying to see stuff get pushed back, but it is what it is the nice thing is that you can still get big storms in that window quite easily. 1958 comes to mind

this January was very atypical lmao it was like -10 in the northern Plains and Northwest

it is what it is though. this winter was always going to come down to one or two big storms. i’m also pretty sure that some in the MA are also AN to date after today. they have to be

it seems like the crap Pacific is due to a +EAMT that is supercharging the Pacific jet for a bit… this is similar to December, but it shouldn’t be as bad given a colder source region and lingering AN heights into AK and Siberia once the effects of the +EAMT wear off and the Pacific jet retracts (which, again, it likely will), we should see a more favorable pattern develop mid month, similar to what happened in Jan

it seems like the crap Pacific is due to a +EAMT that is supercharging the Pacific jet for a bit… this is similar to December, but it shouldn’t be as bad given a colder source region and lingering AN heights into AK and Siberia once the effects of the +EAMT wear off and the Pacific jet retracts (which, again, it likely will), we should see a more favorable pattern develop mid month, similar to what happened in Jan

i do like seeing these HP continuously getting ejected into S Canada. two 1040-50mb HPs is nothing to sneeze at. can give us a chance at a WAA event even with a crap longwave pattern. the HP make sense given the ridge over AK

i do like seeing these HP continuously getting ejected into S Canada. two 1040-50mb HPs is nothing to sneeze at. can give us a chance at a WAA event even with a crap longwave pattern. the HP make sense given the ridge over AK

i do like seeing these HP continuously getting ejected into S Canada. two 1040-50mb HPs is nothing to sneeze at. can give us a chance at a WAA event even with a crap longwave pattern. the HP make sense given the ridge over AK

even with the jet extension, this doesn't have the same feel as December, as you still have polar flow with ridging into AK and Siberia like this isn't really torchy as the source region is still intact, it's different from Dec where you have a straight up vortex over those regions is it great, no, but it would still provide opportunities before the jet retracts. I can see this trending worse, but it's fine for now. then, when the jet retracts, which it will, that's when the door opens for something bigger

even with the jet extension, this doesn't have the same feel as December, as you still have polar flow with ridging into AK and Siberia like this isn't really torchy as the source region is still intact, it's different from Dec where you have a straight up vortex over those regions is it great, no, but it would still provide opportunities before the jet retracts. I can see this trending worse, but it's fine for now. then, as the jet retracts, that's when you really open it up for something bigger

NAM incorporates that lead wave more fully. would like to see other guidance jump on that, as it leads to a better baroclinic zone as well as more PVA

it actually incorporates the lead energy into the trough. it's not that much of a change but it makes a big impact