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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    i think people underestimate how much damage can be done in 3-4 weeks, as well
  2. brooklynwx99
    i’m not one for dramatics, but if the weeklies have the right idea, someone is getting a MECS or HECS it is literally a recreation of Feb 1958/1978/2010
  3. brooklynwx99
    weeklies are still loaded beyond belief. not a single tick back, either
  4. brooklynwx99
    EPS is near identical to the weeklies
  5. brooklynwx99
    that’s what gets kicked out or retrogrades. it’s not gonna stay there
  6. brooklynwx99
    i don’t think that the GFS solution is likely by any means, but it certainly is a possibility
  7. brooklynwx99
    but… it’s fake! right? RIGHT???
  8. brooklynwx99
    you can see all of the ULLs stretching across the ATL. this is how you get big wave breaking that leads to a -NAO. almost like the ATL is blocking itself up before the block even really forms
  9. brooklynwx99
    yeah once you get to the 10th, that's when the trough opens up more into the ATL and heights rise over the WC and AK. that's when you have Arctic air to work with via cross polar flow
  10. brooklynwx99
    are we even punting at this point for storm potential? let alone a torch
  11. brooklynwx99
    LOL
  12. brooklynwx99
    I wanna give it another 5-7 days to see the whites of the better pattern's eyes, but I'm of the same impression for now
  13. brooklynwx99
    this is so zonked lmao wild omega block. i do like seeing polar flow get established, though
  14. brooklynwx99
    yup, just rots there. I mean, it would make sense verbatim given the omega block. there's nowhere for that impulse to go
  15. brooklynwx99
    you’re getting very close to linking those two troughs as well… that’s when you pop your -NAO
  16. brooklynwx99
    speaking for NYC specifically, there were three winters over 30” from 1970-2000. three!! there have been 13 winters over 30” since 2000. five in a row from 2013-2017 the whole “it doesn’t snow as much anymore” argument is BS. there’s just more variance, so when you strike out, you’re at a higher risk of a true dud rather than your standard blah winter
  17. brooklynwx99
    BPD ass forum
  18. brooklynwx99
    all ensembles are in near lock step with both each other and the weeklies. only a few days from the promised land connecting the two troughs
  19. brooklynwx99
    yes, the advertised pattern plays better for like HFD south. once into mid-Feb, everyone can get in on the action… NYC and MA are favored, but 2003 and 1983 got into BOS
  20. brooklynwx99
    if that Canadian block is far enough north to let something underneath, yes
  21. brooklynwx99
    jesus christ
  22. brooklynwx99
    the first week of Feb is officially interesting if that block gets far enough north and energy undercuts it
  23. brooklynwx99
    i don’t think anyone is arguing that, but there’s no reason why that pattern wouldn’t occur. can you come up with an actual reason on modeling right now for that to go up in flames? an actual reason, not just “if everything single thing possible goes wrong, the rest of the winter will suck.” that doesn’t count
  24. brooklynwx99
    bringing the absolutely stale, jaded taste of the NYC subforum to SNE. what a treat!
  25. brooklynwx99
    no, it rolls over. the -NAO comes mid month after the trough gets booted out of the SW
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