brooklynwx99

for people that want the pattern to change, they are looking for literally any evidence that the "can is being kicked." odd it really hasn't been. everything has been remarkably consistent across all ensembles, and a lot of the "kicking" is just features getting sharper with time as lead time decreases

that's a result of less smoothing. the main features in that pattern are in similar spots

nah, it had been after 384 hours lmao it's finally getting into range

it's a really quick change. the Aleutian low develops explosively

this hasn't been 97/98. there has not been a massive GoA low wrecking everything. one hasn't formed at all, the patterns after Dec have been very different

ehhhh NYC has pulled comebacks like that before. we've had periods where we've gotten 30" in 3-4 weeks. north into CT? really hard sell

it would also be different if you were in NE or even NYC. some of you can reach or even break climo in one storm

I think it was always sorta between the 10-15th and it got narrowed down closer to the 15th. I also think people underestimate how much can happen in three weeks. most prolific periods, when they do happen, don't actually last for that long

we went from potentially insane torrid stretch to getting ready to panic in like three days? everything is still on track for the second half of the month into early March

I think a good amount of it is crap luck. both Dec 2022 and this month could have featured massive storms if not for the random interplay of TPV lobes. there is no way to forecast that more than 5, maybe 7 days in advance, and it fucked both of those high end threats up. it's a shame, but it happens. I don't think it speaks to the potential of the pattern at large, though. this month was especially egregious. that was locked and loaded and the TPV split in the worst possible fashion. it's so frustrating, but we'll be back. the worm has to turn

i’ve laid my thoughts out supported by evidence and we’re going to have to agree to disagree. we’ll see what happens in the coming weeks

why is he just allowed to bad mouth meteorologists like that? without as much as a suspension?

wow. a change of two days at a two week lead time. devastating

look, give me a bowling ball, a juiced STJ, and confluence in a strong Nino February and it can be worked out

bowling ball phases with the backside of the TPV lobe. wonderful

looks good to me

look at this crazy SE ridge. this was due to the La Nina base state at the time

this is remarkable consistency with that feature. I don't think a step back has been taken

that trough in the SW has been there for like 10 days on the weeklies

it hasn't slowed. it's been in nearly the same spot for two weeks

i have seen some members that phase with lingering ULL energy, but that’s kinda exotic and not too likely

yeah, it’s tough for you guys… even for NYC’s latitude honestly. but at this point, looking at a potent southern stream wave in a blocky pattern, it’s something to watch

that’s the 12th. what’s your point? these are the weeklies at the same time… there is lots of agreement

big Nino stuff here

jesus