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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    12z ENS roundup so far. stellar
  2. brooklynwx99
    we've seen a dramatic change towards a final warming of the SPV that instantly couples with the TPV. this would have near immediate effects... not the typical SSW where you'd need to wait a few weeks. you'd see sustained blocking here, likely into March
  3. brooklynwx99
    multiple massive 50/50s with strong blocking and a cold air feed. wow
  4. brooklynwx99
    yeah i’d say the first crack at it around the 13-15th favors the interior, then it’s fair game for all
  5. brooklynwx99
    picture perfect progression here. just shows how the split flow comes together with the 50/50 to lead to a bomb
  6. brooklynwx99
    you’re also getting SPV weakening that’s coupled. we could be in through early March
  7. brooklynwx99
    weeklies seem to be keying in on the 23rd. the fact that you can actually see a wave from the STJ deepen at this range is nuts. retrograding block and 50/50 in place
  8. brooklynwx99
    you’re telling me. wow
  9. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is a lot blockier today. it has a strong progressive bias so it would struggle with blocking due to wave breaking… that often features anomalous troughs to get it going
  10. brooklynwx99
    just a beautiful retrograding -NAO here alongside split flow and a roaring STJ. trough is in the east by the 13th, as well. no can kick in sight
  11. brooklynwx99
    ah. “for about,” not about. gotcha
  12. brooklynwx99
    well, yes, the next 10 days or so suck, no mincing that
  13. brooklynwx99
    NAM shows full coupling of the strat and tropo mid-month associated with a final significant warming, which would provide a more stable blocking pattern
  14. brooklynwx99
    thought you might find this interesting. NAM shows full coupling of the strat and tropo mid-month associated with a final significant warming, which would provide a more stable blocking pattern
  15. brooklynwx99
  16. brooklynwx99
    here is where we stand by the 14th on all ENS... seems like a push forward, if anything. all are in very strong agreement
  17. brooklynwx99
    yes, my point was that this winter has been solid elsewhere and the pattern was good in mid-Jan, just got screwed north of Trenton. I know that isn't what people want to hear, and generally, we want to be able to ascribe a reason to everything, but it's just shit luck.
  18. brooklynwx99
    I'm probably going to give it a week or so until I post again hahaha I've said where I stand and have backed it up with evidence, so we'll see where the chips fall. people are antsy, annoyed, and are looking desperately for this to find any way to fail. can I blame them, no, but it doesn't really lend itself well to an honest discussion about the way things are moving
  19. brooklynwx99
    not everyone is. look at the Mid-Atlantic. they're AN to date
  20. brooklynwx99
    you have flow coming out of AK, though, seems like the air masses are of pretty good quality
  21. brooklynwx99
    this is a strong Nino, the other two years were Ninas. this should not act like those years. also, at some point, the worm has to turn, that's usually how it goes. I can't forecast by saying "well last year sucked, so this one will" when everything is pointing in the other direction
  22. brooklynwx99
    I suppose there may be blips, but it seems to overwhelmingly favor the IO through early March. I can see how after the 10th we break, but this should be longer than a couple weeks IMO
  23. brooklynwx99
    there is so much going for this change hemispherically that i find it very hard to believe that they're wrong. nothing is impossible, i guess
  24. brooklynwx99
    for those that don't see this pattern forming or really doing anything, there should be some kind of reasoning besides "I don't feel like it's going to." TIA
  25. brooklynwx99
    why? these patterns are pretty stable once they form, and the MJO just sorta rots in the IO. IO forcing in March is cold in Ninos. I expect it to warm up by mid-month, but blocking is pesky
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