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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    the main mechanism that leads to these larger storms for NYC is a highly anomalous, retrograding -NAO over the Davis Strait. as the -NAO decays, the 50/50 ULL also moves into a favorable spot to force confluence, also becoming highly anomalous. a Pacific trough often deposits a wave into the flow and retrogrades, allowing a transient Rockies ridge to pop (notice the general troughiness over the Rockies beforehand) now, notice how similar this evolution is. very potent 50/50 developing, highly anomalous -NAO retrograding into the Davis Strait, and a Pacific trough waiting to deposit a wave before it backs off. also persistent AK ridging, consistent with the composite this is why people are mentioning potential for larger storms. it isn't for no reason... there are a lot of similarities to patterns that have produced. would be silly not to mention them
  2. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the last run of the GEFS beefed the blocking up more. since the blocking is forced by wave breaking and an amplified 50/50 ULL, I would expect the GEFS to be on the weaker side with blocking due to its progressive bias. the EPS and GEPS both looking way more aggressive is a bit of a red flag there. the EPS has trended significantly stronger with blocking since 12z yesterday
  3. brooklynwx99
    any ridge spikes in the Rockies are likely temporary, which is often the case and isn't a bad thing. ensembles wouldn't be able to pick up on that at range. here's 2016, for example. there was only a brief Rockies ridge spike pretty much a day or two before the storm
  4. brooklynwx99
    trends you like to see
  5. brooklynwx99
    if you think the GEFS is loaded, look at this lmao
  6. brooklynwx99
    you can see the GEFS eject a wave as the confluence relaxes and the block weakens... the Pacific trough buckles and leads to height rises over the Rockies. this is how you get a big storm
  7. brooklynwx99
    lol i'm sorry but I can't look at this kinda shit and not see the resemblance. it's striking
  8. brooklynwx99
    the jet is equatorward rather than poleward... makes a pretty big difference. looks like an open STJ meeting up with confluence
  9. brooklynwx99
    i mean, hell, as you said, this was Feb 2021... there was a SE ridge poking up and a large trough straddling the WC. you would have people talking about how poor the Pacific is here, but it's why that blizzard even happened a trough of some sort in the GoA is present for most major storms... it's how you get a robust, moisture laden wave
  10. brooklynwx99
    that's also likely as far east as any Pacific trough gets before a retrograde, which is going to occur the further into the year we get. this is especially the case with the MJO progressing through the central Pacific and Indian Ocean
  11. brooklynwx99
    the GEFS kinda looks 2010/2016-ish with that GoA low... it's not a bad thing if the Atlantic is blocked. in fact, a trough like that would allow for strong waves to enter the flow. I think some are scarred by Pacific troughing when it's often been there during prolific periods (though mainly closer to the MA)
  12. brooklynwx99
    four more left! use them wisely.
  13. brooklynwx99
    PNA is rising as the trough near the WC retros a bit, too. classic look here
  14. brooklynwx99
    this progression looks quite similar to 2016... you had a suppressive 50/50 and a deep trough off of the WC. a wave ejected from the trough as the block decayed, and the trough retrograded and allowed for a transient +PNA. the rest is history
  15. brooklynwx99
    he does this stuff all the time. he said NW of I-95 would be "favored" for the Feb 2021 blizzard. they were! they got 30" while NYC got 18" lmao like give me a break
  16. brooklynwx99
    here’s a good example of why the GEFS having a temporary “Pacific onslaught” isn’t really bad at all. the same thing happened in 2016. there was a surge eastward of the aleutian trough, leading to even some ridging into the C US and Great Lakes. a wave slipped underneath, the trough retrogrades, leading to a transient +PNA and boom
  17. brooklynwx99
    he is right. this is indeed a nice pattern change
  18. brooklynwx99
    you can see the wave this far out, kinda nuts. trough amps up as the block rots
  19. brooklynwx99
    i generally agree, but this progression has such high confidence in modeling that you’re able to identify windows where potential is elevated. i’d say somewhere around the 21-25th holds the greatest potential for a larger event
  20. brooklynwx99
    my guess is that you get a vigorous wave coming onshore around the 20th, the Aleutian low retrogrades, spiking the PNA, and that's how you get clobbered. everything is in place there, TPV is perfectly elongated
  21. brooklynwx99
    and the MA had a 10" week and change, I know nobody cares about that here, but still
  22. brooklynwx99
    my guess is that you get a vigorous wave coming onshore around the 20th, the Aleutian low retrogrades, spiking the PNA, and that's how you get clobbered. everything is in place there, TPV is perfectly elongated
  23. brooklynwx99
    it's not bad at all. confluence is building in, Canada is pretty blocked up, and the PNA is rising quickly
  24. brooklynwx99
    uhhhhhhhhhh
  25. brooklynwx99
    March is 10 times more of a winter month for most than December. unless you're far inland or pretty decently north
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