brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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EPS has a stronger surface reflection off OBX -
stronger coastal signal as well. rare to see the GEFS crap on the OP like this, usually it follows lockstep
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GEFS actually looks better... trough is sharper
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the TPV is farther west which yanks the shortwave east. this has been modeled horribly so not really sure what to make of it
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this also seems like a snow or bust kind of setup as long as SLP isn’t overhead or east. should get a nice HP filtering in
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idk, I thought this was a pretty solid signal from the usually progressive GEFS
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EPS with a transfer off OBX
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on the other hand, the EPS is slowly crapping the first wave out while increasing the amplitude of the second
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ECMWF is closer to an actual coastal than 00z, just too sloppy
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I don't see that at all... there's strong HP over the top as the coastal takes shape. this looks like snow or bust with the evolution on the 12z GFS / CMC
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PNA is so much more meridional over southern Canada... even though it's just as strong, per se, it's functionally improved
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what an improvement here
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much stronger second vort on the GFS/CMC. much easier to amplify a system into cold air rather than hope for a cutter in a shit airmass to weaken. that never happens lmao also an easier way to get a storm compared to the 12/18z GFS yesterday where the entire TPV buckled
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much stronger second vort on the GFS/CMC. much easier to amplify a system into cold air rather than hope for a cutter in a shit airmass to weaken. that never happens lmao also an easier way to get a storm compared to the 12/18z GFS yesterday where the entire TPV buckled
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i'd also much rather want amplification of a strong vort into a cold airmass rather than praying for a system to trend weaker in a marginal one. the former happens all the time while the latter is quite rare. we've dealt with the latter a lot over the last couple of years lmao
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like lol this is SO much better
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like that is a wholesale change. much easier to get a ripping S/W south of you instead of depending on some massive TPV buckle like 12/18z yesterday
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GFS and CMC both really amped up the second vort
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yeah, the ridge amplitude lessening is kinda making this more difficult. we’ll see if it corrects back or if it’s more of a definite trend downwards today
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GFS had the same idea, didn't buckle in time. it's a day 8 OP run
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also the more significant +PNA occurs on the 20-21st which encourages a larger wave anyway. you're talking about another standard deviation
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since it's weaker this run, heights in SE Canada remain much lower, which allows the second wave to amplify into a colder airmass. it's a MECS verbatim
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first wave continues to crap out on the GFS. should lead to better spacing this run
