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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    EPS still has the mega block... lots of coastal lows showing up around the PD week period
  2. brooklynwx99
    that's the first crack at it. definitely more thread the needle, but doable, as we're seeing
  3. brooklynwx99
    southern stream holds back a bit, there are more true coastal solutions than 00z
  4. brooklynwx99
    GEFS really likes the PD week timeframe. has the STJ undercutting the blocking and ejecting potent vorts
  5. brooklynwx99
    this is just ridiculous looking lmao
  6. brooklynwx99
    the GFS is also making two perfect 90 degree angles with like a 250kt jet. color me skeptical!
  7. brooklynwx99
    with a poor antecedent airmass, a track like that can certainly produce rain. it's going to be like 60 degrees on Friday lmao
  8. brooklynwx99
    not really. the GEFS is just diffuse with everything and is weakest with blocking. not surprising given how the OP has been floundering around. it’s actually really active in the Gulf that trough is quickly retrograding as well, so heights along the WC quickly rise. there’s still a strong 50/50 and blocking over the top
  9. brooklynwx99
    NS and SS are more disjointed. SS is more hung back... should be better in theory as the NS should be able to get out ahead and suppress heights
  10. brooklynwx99
    this retrograding Scandi high on the EPS is textbook
  11. brooklynwx99
    the EPS has trended significantly stronger at that range with the -NAO today
  12. brooklynwx99
    nah I meant red flag as in the GEFS is likely too weak with it. the more anomalous, the better with the block, as it would just reinforce a better air mass and 50/50. a larger storm would come after it weakens a bit, anyway
  13. brooklynwx99
    the main mechanism that leads to these larger storms for NYC is a highly anomalous, retrograding -NAO over the Davis Strait. as the -NAO decays, the 50/50 ULL also moves into a favorable spot to force confluence, also becoming highly anomalous. a Pacific trough often deposits a wave into the flow and retrogrades, allowing a transient Rockies ridge to pop (notice the general troughiness over the Rockies beforehand) now, notice how similar this evolution is. very potent 50/50 developing, highly anomalous -NAO retrograding into the Davis Strait, and a Pacific trough waiting to deposit a wave before it backs off. also persistent AK ridging, consistent with the composite this is why people are mentioning potential for larger storms. it isn't for no reason... there are a lot of similarities to patterns that have produced. would be silly not to mention them
  14. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the last run of the GEFS beefed the blocking up more. since the blocking is forced by wave breaking and an amplified 50/50 ULL, I would expect the GEFS to be on the weaker side with blocking due to its progressive bias. the EPS and GEPS both looking way more aggressive is a bit of a red flag there. the EPS has trended significantly stronger with blocking since 12z yesterday
  15. brooklynwx99
    any ridge spikes in the Rockies are likely temporary, which is often the case and isn't a bad thing. ensembles wouldn't be able to pick up on that at range. here's 2016, for example. there was only a brief Rockies ridge spike pretty much a day or two before the storm
  16. brooklynwx99
    trends you like to see
  17. brooklynwx99
    if you think the GEFS is loaded, look at this lmao
  18. brooklynwx99
    you can see the GEFS eject a wave as the confluence relaxes and the block weakens... the Pacific trough buckles and leads to height rises over the Rockies. this is how you get a big storm
  19. brooklynwx99
    lol i'm sorry but I can't look at this kinda shit and not see the resemblance. it's striking
  20. brooklynwx99
    the jet is equatorward rather than poleward... makes a pretty big difference. looks like an open STJ meeting up with confluence
  21. brooklynwx99
    i mean, hell, as you said, this was Feb 2021... there was a SE ridge poking up and a large trough straddling the WC. you would have people talking about how poor the Pacific is here, but it's why that blizzard even happened a trough of some sort in the GoA is present for most major storms... it's how you get a robust, moisture laden wave
  22. brooklynwx99
    that's also likely as far east as any Pacific trough gets before a retrograde, which is going to occur the further into the year we get. this is especially the case with the MJO progressing through the central Pacific and Indian Ocean
  23. brooklynwx99
    the GEFS kinda looks 2010/2016-ish with that GoA low... it's not a bad thing if the Atlantic is blocked. in fact, a trough like that would allow for strong waves to enter the flow. I think some are scarred by Pacific troughing when it's often been there during prolific periods (though mainly closer to the MA)
  24. brooklynwx99
    four more left! use them wisely.
  25. brooklynwx99
    PNA is rising as the trough near the WC retros a bit, too. classic look here
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