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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    it's a very similar progression to what we saw from late December into early-mid January. this time, though, we should have an actual Aleutian Low as well as shorter wavelengths and a more active STJ
  2. brooklynwx99
    it does look like we're going to see the same jet overextension and retraction that led to the very favorable pattern this month. this time, though, it'll be in Feb with shorter wavelengths and a more potent Aleutian low to allow for stronger shortwaves to enter the flow
  3. brooklynwx99
    the difference between the advertised pattern and the one that we just had is the presence of a large GoA / Aleutian low that allows for potent southern stream shortwaves to enter the flow. the previous pattern pretty much shut off the mechanism for those larger waves
  4. brooklynwx99
    a good portion of the MA is AN on the year. i would say it has
  5. brooklynwx99
    it's impossible to actually have any sort of debate on this because there isn't enough data yet, and people mainly just use anecdotes and a lot of confirmation bias. i'm sure that there have been snow events that climate change helped out or made more prolific than they would normally be
  6. brooklynwx99
    even if you slice the positive anomalies in half, you don't want a +6C airmass heading into any kind of snowfall event. it likely wouldn't work regardless. for as many flawed snow events, we also got a shit ton of rain, but nobody cares about the 8/10 times that it rained in these kinds of patterns fair, I get your overall point, but that's not a setup that would have worked in a long time. it's too warm leading in
  7. brooklynwx99
    i'll have agree to disagree on that one
  8. brooklynwx99
    yeah you're getting that trough to roll under the ridge and lead to wave breaking. it's moving forward in time and is supported by extended guidance so it seems legit for now
  9. brooklynwx99
    i don't think this would have snowed in 1873 with this antecedent airmass
  10. brooklynwx99
    yes, I can see a lobe from the TPV extending and providing “fake” confluence
  11. brooklynwx99
    i agree. and yes, the same point you mentioned in your last post is similar to March 2014 when the NAO was so positive that systems got suppressed the “+NAO is good” stuff is BS
  12. brooklynwx99
    roll it forward a few days
  13. brooklynwx99
    the extension likely forces a -PNA that can lead to another blocking episode. combine with an Aleutian Low and slightly retracted jet and bang
  14. brooklynwx99
    there was a +EAMT that overextended the jet. we’ll see a good pattern once the jet inevitably retracts, similar to what happened this week
  15. brooklynwx99
    looks like there’s a potentially legit PNA spike before the Pacific jet becomes too much to handle. 3 sigma at near our latitude is no joke
  16. brooklynwx99
    i wouldn’t exactly consider that a torch considering that the first few days of that window can skew the whole thing above average
  17. brooklynwx99
    it's the same evolution that led to this current pattern, but in better climo and with shorter wavelengths. it's annoying for sure, but I don't see it ending winter or anything like that
  18. brooklynwx99
    +EAMT led to too much momentum in the jet. we will have to wait until the jet retracts, which it will. those momentum bursts don't last for very long they're great in Ninas where we need the jet to extend, but it's too much of a good thing here
  19. brooklynwx99
    exactly. it's really frustrating, but everything was in place for a big one and the minute details just didn't line up. the overall pattern was very good, but you still need everything to come together
  20. brooklynwx99
    that's not how that works. read Will's post above since you seem to not want to hear it from me
  21. brooklynwx99
    the pattern didn't fail because it was too warm. it's way more than cold enough it's because of crappy little nuances that are impossible to forecast more than 10 days out, like the positioning of the TPV, the exact height of the western ridge, and the interplay between shortwaves
  22. brooklynwx99
    a favorable pattern does not guarantee favorable results. it just increases the odds. how many times does this need to be said? it's so disingenuous to imply that those that forecasted a favorable pattern were wrong. that's BS I was not wrong when I, and many others, said that the pattern would be favorable. it was, and we got fucked. that's all there is to say, and it's frustrating
  23. brooklynwx99
    "kicking the can" implies that nothing has changed. there was, in fact, a wholesale change in the pattern at the start of the month. this is 18 days of a favorable pattern... saying that the mid to late December didn't change is also completely disingenuous we rely on luck a lot more than people would like to admit, and our luck has been in the toilet. the ship will get righted at some point
  24. brooklynwx99
    nobody is arguing that the pattern beforehand didn't suck. why are you being a dick for no reason?
  25. brooklynwx99
    regression to the mean sucks. what else can you say
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