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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    granted, you'd end up in quite a favorable pattern around the 10-15th as that SW trough slips under the Canadian blocking and the Aleutian Low maintains the -EPO/+PNA, but yeah, it would torch for a week before then. wave breaking could also lead to a -NAO. this is the same evolution extended guidance has, and it's similar to what happened this month when the Pacific jet overextended in late Dec not sure if anyone really cares about any of that, though
  2. brooklynwx99
    the MJO is a bit overstated. nobody gave a flying fuck about it from like 2003 until 2021 until the last couple of winters. they didn't really care because it just kept snowing... now people need to overattribute the lack of snow to a single variable when it isn't that simple is it important? absolutely! but it's not the end all be all
  3. brooklynwx99
    there is no actual reasoning for that, though. i see no reason to believe that we won't have a two to three week long favorable period from like Feb 15 - March 10 as the jet lessens. people are just jaded right now, can't blame them a supercharged Pacific jet is also pretty boilerplate strong Nino stuff. that's nothing new
  4. brooklynwx99
    that's a pretty huge assumption
  5. brooklynwx99
    the SPV isn't coupled, though, so it doesn't really matter all that much. the troposphere is doing its own thing. maybe it has an effect in mid-March? this is the same as a SSW that doesn't end up coupling and has next to no effect
  6. brooklynwx99
    the major warm period over the next couple weeks is more so due to +EAMT supercharging the Pacific jet... MJO phases 4-6 in a Nina usually warm us up via jet retraction, which is the opposite of what we're seeing here in the same vein, we should see a flip to quite a favorable pattern around Feb 10-15 as the jet inevitably retracts and the typical Feb Aleutian low takes over. the -PNA forced by the excess momentum also assists in wave breaking that likely leads to a -NAO
  7. brooklynwx99
    you can be the smartest person in the entire world and be right every single time, but if you're an asshole about it, nobody will listen because they'll dislike you. people aren't mad because he's "right", whatever that means in this context. they are mad because he's attacking people and spewing venom people seem to forget the importance of tact and making people feel good. you see this a shit ton on social media
  8. brooklynwx99
    the stronger SPV doesn’t couple, so Judah’s point doesn’t even hold water
  9. brooklynwx99
    charles this is a massive 230kt jet extension
  10. brooklynwx99
    lends a lot more credence to the Weeklies when all of the ENS are playing out in the same way it's quite similar to the last jet extension that we saw, but this time we'll have a strong Aleutian low to allow for strong shortwaves to enter the flow... sign me up
  11. brooklynwx99
    the agreement on all ensembles as well as extended guidance is pretty remarkable. slip that excess momentum under the Canadian ridge and connect it with the N Atl trough and BANG textbook Aleutian Low, too
  12. brooklynwx99
    it's a very similar progression to what we saw from late December into early-mid January. this time, though, we should have an actual Aleutian Low as well as shorter wavelengths and a more active STJ
  13. brooklynwx99
    it does look like we're going to see the same jet overextension and retraction that led to the very favorable pattern this month. this time, though, it'll be in Feb with shorter wavelengths and a more potent Aleutian low to allow for stronger shortwaves to enter the flow
  14. brooklynwx99
    the difference between the advertised pattern and the one that we just had is the presence of a large GoA / Aleutian low that allows for potent southern stream shortwaves to enter the flow. the previous pattern pretty much shut off the mechanism for those larger waves
  15. brooklynwx99
    a good portion of the MA is AN on the year. i would say it has
  16. brooklynwx99
    it's impossible to actually have any sort of debate on this because there isn't enough data yet, and people mainly just use anecdotes and a lot of confirmation bias. i'm sure that there have been snow events that climate change helped out or made more prolific than they would normally be
  17. brooklynwx99
    even if you slice the positive anomalies in half, you don't want a +6C airmass heading into any kind of snowfall event. it likely wouldn't work regardless. for as many flawed snow events, we also got a shit ton of rain, but nobody cares about the 8/10 times that it rained in these kinds of patterns fair, I get your overall point, but that's not a setup that would have worked in a long time. it's too warm leading in
  18. brooklynwx99
    i'll have agree to disagree on that one
  19. brooklynwx99
    yeah you're getting that trough to roll under the ridge and lead to wave breaking. it's moving forward in time and is supported by extended guidance so it seems legit for now
  20. brooklynwx99
    i don't think this would have snowed in 1873 with this antecedent airmass
  21. brooklynwx99
    yes, I can see a lobe from the TPV extending and providing “fake” confluence
  22. brooklynwx99
    i agree. and yes, the same point you mentioned in your last post is similar to March 2014 when the NAO was so positive that systems got suppressed the “+NAO is good” stuff is BS
  23. brooklynwx99
    roll it forward a few days
  24. brooklynwx99
    the extension likely forces a -PNA that can lead to another blocking episode. combine with an Aleutian Low and slightly retracted jet and bang
  25. brooklynwx99
    there was a +EAMT that overextended the jet. we’ll see a good pattern once the jet inevitably retracts, similar to what happened this week
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