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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    GEPS is ridiculous. has 15" on the mean with this pattern still in place
  2. brooklynwx99
    the shift in confluence is pretty notable. the evolution is much more similar to that of a Miller B than a SWFE at this point
  3. brooklynwx99
    euro keeps weakening
  4. brooklynwx99
    obvious deamping trend here
  5. brooklynwx99
    the CPC forecast is based on the GEFS, which looks the same. those indices aren't really that useful since they provide no context
  6. brooklynwx99
    why use your eyeballs and your brain to analyze the pattern when you can doom over some pressure calculation developed like 40 years ago?
  7. brooklynwx99
    those index charts are such bullshit. this is a -NAO, full stop
  8. brooklynwx99
    absolutely sickening weenie behavior. not all that much has changed since yesterday... there remains elevated potential for a significant storm from DC-NYC basically. details TBD
  9. brooklynwx99
    looks like a Weeklies run lmao also the pattern is still well established at that time. block is maturing
  10. brooklynwx99
    this is as robust as you will ever see the EPS
  11. brooklynwx99
    comparing the two setups, this one is more favorable for a more potent storm. lower downstream heights in SE Canada help foster coastal redevelopment and a better thump
  12. brooklynwx99
    comparing the two setups, this one is more favorable for front end snow for NYC. lower downstream heights in SE Canada help
  13. brooklynwx99
    i mean yeah i get the skepticism but these probabilities are objectively ridiculous
  14. brooklynwx99
    yeah, moves towards the typical KU pattern at that point
  15. brooklynwx99
    ridiculous Arctic blocking on the GEFS
  16. brooklynwx99
    that Arctic blocking is wow
  17. brooklynwx99
    jesus
  18. brooklynwx99
    why even bother talking about a potential pattern hiccup when this is on the horizon? lmao
  19. brooklynwx99
    it looks temporary. not really worried about that
  20. brooklynwx99
    luckily with this kind of thermal gradient you can get a significant event with like a 1015mb low
  21. brooklynwx99
    lol
  22. brooklynwx99
    also, big signal on the GEFS for the 12th
  23. brooklynwx99
    lol
  24. brooklynwx99
    this is your takeaway?
  25. brooklynwx99
    the thing that's really wild about these runs is that they're prolific before the most favorable window, which is when the block rots. these runs have DC-NYC getting 1-2 feet through the 16th, which is when the block is still developing. the timeframe from the 16-23rd is when you'd expect to see the greatest shot at a true MECS so the fact that ensembles are showing 8-12" from NYC to DC without a well defined MECS signal is ridiculous
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