brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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why even bother talking about a potential pattern hiccup when this is on the horizon? lmao
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it looks temporary. not really worried about that
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luckily with this kind of thermal gradient you can get a significant event with like a 1015mb low
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lol
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also, big signal on the GEFS for the 12th
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this is your takeaway?
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the thing that's really wild about these runs is that they're prolific before the most favorable window, which is when the block rots. these runs have DC-NYC getting 1-2 feet through the 16th, which is when the block is still developing. the timeframe from the 16-23rd is when you'd expect to see the greatest shot at a true MECS so the fact that ensembles are showing 8-12" from NYC to DC without a well defined MECS signal is ridiculous
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the thing that's really wild about these runs is that they're prolific before the most favorable window, which is when the block rots. these runs have DC-NYC getting 1-2 feet through the 16th, which is when the block is still developing. the timeframe from the 16-23rd is when you'd expect to see the greatest shot at a true MECS so the fact that ensembles are showing 8-12" from NYC to DC without a well defined MECS signal is ridiculous
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depends...
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IMO this is more of a bottom-up event... the 50mb impacts on the stratosphere are more important for influencing the troposphere most of the time anyway, and a significant disruption is likely. the SPV stuff is only serving to bolster the tropospheric processes that will occur over the next two weeks
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the stratospheric impacts are likely going to lead to more stable blocking, IMO. it's all part of a bigger picture
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this retrograding and decaying Scandi block along with the elongated TPV is often a precursor to some of our larger storms, historically. there are risks before this occurs, mainly around the 8th and 12th, but there's certainly a window for a more prototypical coastal storm between the 18-23rd
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this retrograding and decaying Scandi block along with the elongated TPV is often a precursor to some of our larger storms, historically. there are risks before this occurs, mainly around the 8th and 12th, but there's certainly a window for a more prototypical coastal storm between the 18-23rd
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this is also just ridiculous
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nothing is ever permanent in weather. always roll my eyes when i see stuff like that
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the 6th and 8th look like potential front end thumps. i doubt they’re all snow or anything like that but some here sneezing at the potential for 2-4” to mix to rain is laughable given how lame the last few years have been after the 10th things really open up. it’s also, you know, snowing this evening
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love to see it
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along with tons of precip
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cold and active. love to see it
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semi permanent Nina base state
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yeah, the March 2018 comparisons are growing more and more legit. again, not quite as anomalous but the similarities are pretty glaring
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it's funny, March 2018 would have been hyperbolic but that's literally almost as anomalous and has the same general progression
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EPS has a 3 sigma block right over the pole. ridiculous
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absolutely obscene EPS run. 3 sigma block right over the pole
