brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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that is the exception rather than the rule. a strong -NAO almost always overpowers unless the Pacific truly sucks
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i know everyone always whines about the Pacific, but the -NAO and resultant confluence is king for you guys
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yeah. all in? no very intrigued and getting a bit excited at the potential? yes i would wait another few days to let the -NAO hit the short range
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great trend in the -NAO over the last model cycle
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one day trend in the blocking is very nice. this does not look like a head fake
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one day trend in the blocking is very nice. this does not look like a head fake
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same. i do LR forecasting at my company with a couple others and 2009 was a top analog since the summer
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i think you guys are getting too nitpicky and have a bit of PTSD from last year hell, Feb 2010 had a trough poking into AK and not really that much ridging out west. also had a deep trough south of AK. mean trough axis was offshore we could literally get this exact pattern again and people would complain about it. hell, if there was strong WC/AK ridging along with a -NAO, people would complain about suppression. it’s gotten to be a bit much
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after all that ranting and raving about weenies, he has come full circle. life comes at you fast, i guess
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now webb’s top analog is 2009. holy shit, you could cut the irony with a knife
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so people like myself, @griteater, @40/70 Benchmark, and others who had 2009 as a strong analog would have been called weenies by him, but now it’s his top analog? such bullshit
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lmao no, your argument is “well it’s on modeling now, what if it’s wrong? what if it just goes away?” which is a horrible argument and you know it. come on dude. imagine if Tony came in here if models had the PV over Greenland and was like “well what if they’re all just wrong and we can get a -NAO? the +NAO came up out of nowhere!” you’d write an impassioned essay using SAT vocab about how much of a dumb weenie is. you’re doing the same, just the other way
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you also misrepresented what i said. I didn’t say that there would be a massive -NAO month (although it likely ends up a tad negative). i said that canonical strong, especially super events feature strong +NAO patterns. that is likely not the case this month
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okay, so let’s just throw every single piece of higher skill guidance out? that’s not how you’re supposed to forecast and the models have not been flip flopping. they are all in agreement on a strong west based -NAO block that is both strengthening and moving forward in time. even Webb has conceded in that regard
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i agree with the boom/bust sentiment, and it seems like we’re leaning more boom than bust given the -NAO developing already
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this event is already not really acting canonical given its strength. strong to super Ninos often feature strong +NAO patterns… that is likely not the case this month
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AK ridging showing up later in the run. great pattern overall
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EPS is top tier with AK ridging popping up too
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this is more like it
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like i’m not sure what most of you want. this is a nearly ideal pattern. way more pros than cons
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huh? this is a colder than average pattern with blocking. there’s always going to be Pacific air in a strong Nino
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this looks good to me. the NPAC won’t be as much of an issue with Nino in place, +PNA and a SE trough is favored
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that is a legit -NAO too. notice how the entire N Atl is blocked up through Europe
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my lord that is a legit -NAO too… notice how the N Atl is blocked up through Europe
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