brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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the bias corrected CFS pretty much favors a moderate Nino as well. this falls in line with the CanSIPS. i think this is on the cooler side, but it has still trended colder over the last 15 days the ECMWF is still running warm, but it is still trending towards the CFS and CanSIPS. again, we would need to see significant warming occur very soon in order for the higher-end solutions to play out
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CFS is still trending towards a high-end moderate to strong Nino. the members with a three-month over +2C are few and far between. we will need to see very rapid warming by the end of the month in order to have those super Nino predictions pan out
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and to be perfectly clear, yes, there is a small chance that there is a super Nino. not totally discounting. but it’s just becoming less and less likely and this Nino still bears pretty much zero resemblance to any of the other past super Ninos. strong, however, is a good bet
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by all means, you can post the CFS. it’s warm for most of the winter. i don’t get the victim complex lmao and yes, i believe one person, no matter how smart, can be totally wrong. i think the super Nino talk is borderline unfounded at this point, but we’ll see. the evidence is strongly mounting against it
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95% of the thread consists of strict analysis of trade winds, Hovmoller plots, and even day by day warming and cooling of 3.4. it gets exhausting at times. god forbid people want to post a model that comes out once a month if you want to stick to the Paul Roundy super nino Twitter circle jerk, by all means. the +3.0 C BOM super Nino crap is honestly way more in the realm of wishcasting than any model has right now
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SSTs dropped pretty significantly compared to the last two runs, and the forcing is still centered over the dateline. so it's not as insane and over the top as the last run, but this is still highly auspicious for anyone that wants a good winter in the E US
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CanSIPS basically has the standard serviceable to good Dec, Jan thaw, then into a favorable winter pattern for Feb and Mar (-NAO, +PNA/-EPO, split flow)
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the super Nino idea needs to shit or get off the pot, so to speak. we need to see significant warming over the next month if history is any indication, and I don't really see a mechanism for that to happen over the next couple of weeks. there is no MJO influence and forcing still remains well west over the Maritime Continent
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not saying this towards anyone in particular, but I have no idea how anyone can be pessimistic about this winter outside of far NNE. there could be a lot going for it, and the east-based super Nino stuff is becoming more and more far-fetched by the day if anything, this is our best chance for a big winter from BOS to DC since 2014-15. 2020-21 was a bit fluky and not that widespread
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also, look at how the NMME sloshes the warmest anomalies over towards the dateline as the fall progresses. kind of reminds me of 1957-58, but stronger
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yup, I saw and agree. that's why I think models like the CanSIPS actually have a clue. here's the NMME as well... 200mb, but this is still mint and very similar to the CanSIPS
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if this is correct, there is no way we aren't getting blasted. this has the MJO sitting in 7-8-1 all winter with a strong Nino. sign me up
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I think the WPAC warm pool might help drag the forcing west this hurts us during La Ninas where it drags forcing west towards Indonesia, but can help in Ninos where it drags the forcing towards the Dateline. we'll see, but I'm optimistic
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i think the western lean to the forcing that's been suggested should pull us more towards a favorable outcome rather than a crappy one
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i didn't guarantee anything. i said that the patterns had a much higher than normal threat for a major snowstorm, and they certainly did hold that threat. those threats did not pan out, which happens from time to time if you cannot wrap your head around the concept of probability and risk, I don't really know what to tell you
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the setups were amazing. too bad we didn't get anything, it happens. however, there were two massive storms in the windows both myself and many others posted about, one of which was historic in parts of New England and the Hudson Valley at least I'm formulating my own thoughts based on pattern recognition instead of breathlessly reposting tweets that aren't even my own just stop lmao there's a reason why you're five-posted
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yeah but Paul Roundy said
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the EMI really does increase as we head into the winter... the Jamstec has a mean DJF ENSO of around 1.2, which is on the weaker side, but it's more reasonable than 3C IMO if we keep the Nino under 2C, i will be pretty excited. there's definitely reason to be optimistic
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I think if we get a 1.5-2C event with the forcing between 160-190W where the models have it, it's going to be a good winter. I don't think it's ridiculous to see something like the NMME or CanSIPS play out
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here are the zonal winds from the Ninos that topped out over 2C... 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. these all exhibit very strong WWBs in the western Pacific: and here is this year: there is just no similarity at all. just based on this alone, I find it very hard to see this event spiking well over 2C like some have been proclaiming. perhaps a month between 2-2.1C. the majority of models seem to agree on this
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i know, i really just don't see that happening at all. this event bears no resemblance to events like 2015-16 or 1997-98... those had massive westerly wind bursts and this event has nothing of the sort. I think this sits somewhere between 1.3-2C but that's about it
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i have no idea how someone can look at this data and say that a super Nino is likely. the CFS has trended towards a strong event and the IRI dynamical models also paint the same picture. the BOM is a massive outlier and shouldn't be seriously considered the trade winds during this event have also had zero similarities to events like 2015-16 or 1997-98. i just don't see the support for that kind of solution
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this model is an absolutely massive outlier and should be discounted for now. twitter sucks so hard lmao
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i just have a very hard time believing the Australian when it's the most extreme outlier. just seems a bit much compared to literally everything else. it's obviously going to get a ton of traction on social media in the same way that a 384hr GFS OP snow map does, though the dynamical average peak of +1.5-2.0C seems the most reasonable right now
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it's insane lmao
