brooklynwx99

is that better forkles @forkyfork

so far, I don't really see anything that supports a super Nino event, mainly due to the stark difference in the trade winds in the E Pacific. @bluewave mentioned this a few days ago, I believe. the very strong to super Nino events of 1972-73, 1982-83, 1996-97, and 2009-10 had very strong westerly winds across much of the western and central Pacific. 1972 and 1997 are the most striking examples with the westerlies pretty much off the charts. the westerlies in 1982 and 2015 were also strong and widespread... this obviously helped lead to very high-end events looking at this year, we're seeing a stark departure from these very strong to super Nino years. there are some strong westerlies, but they're displaced near the Maritime continent and easterlies still dominate much of the equatorial Pacific. although I still expect El Nino to strengthen, it is clear that we likely aren't on the same track as the very strong to super Nino years of the past. I am aware that three years is not enough of a sample size to completely discount the possibility, but looking at these years, it's just too different for me to consider it a significant possibility years like 2002 and 1986 are perhaps a bit more matched with this one with a more subdued WWB near the Maritime continent, but it's still not perfect by any means. 2004 is also kind of decent. this year is a bit of a weird one, I don't really see any legitimately great matches here either way, my point is that it seems like a higher-end weak to low-end strong event seems much more likely than a legitimate strong to super event. I know that trade winds aren't the only factor that goes into ENSO development, but the sheer departure of this year compared to 1972/1982/1996/2015 really makes me pause. a year more similar to 2002/1986 looks more likely at this point. those years were both moderate Ninos that came off of three year -ENSO stretches, which also makes them a bit more pertinent not totally sure where this will go, but if I had to bet on it, somewhere in the +0.8-1.6C range with a basin wide look makes the most sense to me. we'll see how it shakes out in the coming months... the very warm models should come back down to earth by July, definitely August. if they don't, we could have a very strong event on our hands. time will tell

take it? i would pay for this three month 500mb mean. absolutely lights out

if they mean significant in the strict statistical sense, then I would imagine that a moderate El Nino would be such. definitely strong... the statement does not imply a super Nino

i'm not sure if anyone that should be taken seriously had a cold, snowy last year. I had December with a chance to be cold and snowy if blocking developed, but we got screwed there. then, perhaps residual cold from December blocking in early Jan before the late Jan-Feb torch. overall warm and less snowy most people went the typical Nina route from the get-go

AmericanTwitter

apparently a super east-based Nino is the most likely scenario? we haven't even passed the spring barrier lmao I'm still leaning moderate to low-end strong until proven otherwise. there's also still enough model variability on placement that anything from east-based to a central leaning basin-wide event is possible. no real way to tell until we get into July-August if I had to bet money on it, I'd say like a +1.3-1.7 basin-wide event

I wouldn't say that. sample size is just too small. if we have these problems in 2030 then yeah maybe

also, 2016 was an abject blowtorch with a +10 December, but it also gave BWI and NYC their biggest snowfalls ever. weird things happen in Ninos when the STJ is juiced

i will take normal 2m temps with a STJ on roids and that blocky 500mb pattern also getting a seasonal to show below normal temps when using the 1981-2010 climo is a feat already. i'm just excited we're getting a shakeup with the Nino

this is just as plausible, so I'll ride this into the sunset for now

isn't strong 1.5-2C, very strong 2-2.5C, and super 2.5+C? the mean is advertising a strong Nino, not super i hate twitter lmao

if we get a strong Nino next winter, the persistent trough over the Southeast will cool those anomalies down. those SSTs are largely a result of 5 Ninas in 7 years also the warm Gulf will help break snowfall records at some point. it's a give and take. repeat 2016 now and BWI gets 36"

would totally take that. anything to get this Nina crap out of there basin wide anomalies like that would be totally fine, too. just can't be pure east-based

well this is... robust

it's because the CFS is more basin-wide/east based and the CanSIPS is more classic Modoki... the farther east-based the Nino is, the farther east that negative anomaly offshore is either way, I would take that 500mb for Jan in a heartbeat. 10x better than what we've seen over the last several years with deep negative anomalies over the SE US

strong is fine. 2002-03 and 2009-10 were borderline strong. super is bad

interesting and real, but indeed depressing

winter is over forever. might as well close up shop. base state and all

it was more prolific NYC south. NYC had 44.7" and BWI had 43.0" makes sense when you had this pattern for the last three months of the season. basically 2009-10 lite

an evolution like 1957-58 wouldn't really be that farfetched given where all the warmth is under the surface right now. the CanSIPS has a pretty similar evolution with the stronger east-based anomalies migrating westward during autumn

57-58 was strong and also came off a stretch of three Ninas. honestly, not a far-fetched SST configuration given the subsurface anomalies. it's somewhere between basin-wide and Modoki. ended up becoming a prolific winter, regardless

you realize 2002-03 and 2009-10 were both borderline strong, right? the placement of the anomalies matters more, anyway. I would much rather have a strong Modoki instead of a weak-moderate east-based Nino

I'm cool with that. anything with a chance at a 3 footer is fine by my book with an STJ that strong

holy fuck lmao absolutely insane take