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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    but! but! this is obviously acting like a canonical event! there could be a PDII redux in December and he would find a way to spin it
  2. brooklynwx99
    that's a run-over-run trend. these are the actual 500mb anomalies... the western trough is pretty common in Nino Decembers that move into Phase 3
  3. brooklynwx99
    one could make the case that 09-10 was strong as well... that winter topped out at +1.6C in NDJ
  4. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it's not cold enough early (unless the GEPS -EPO is right), but seeing the -NAO and SPV perturbation both showing up over the last few days is highly encouraging it would be leading us on the 2002/2009 type track rather than the 1972/1982/1991/2015 track
  5. brooklynwx99
    if we get that -NAO, it bodes well for the rest of the winter. El Ninos with -NAO Decembers looked like this for Jan / Feb:
  6. brooklynwx99
    if we get that -NAO, it bodes well for the rest of the winter. El Ninos with -NAO Decembers looked like this for Jan / Feb:
  7. brooklynwx99
    EPS also making a shift towards much more medium range -NAO blocking
  8. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is also showing a WB -NAO... Pacific isn't great, but good to see the blocking showing up
  9. brooklynwx99
    it would be nice to have a well entrenched definition on this stuff, but it's different everywhere you look. quite annoying for these kinds of discussions I just don't want to see shit on twitter of people declaring this a super event after one monthly reading lmao
  10. brooklynwx99
    lmao I'm just saying that one trimonthly period isn't the actual accepted definition. that has nothing to do with any contest. just saying that when this will be officially classified, it will probably be done as a strong event. I'm not referring to the contest here or anything like that i still have a hard time believing that this even gets to a full trimonthly. maybe it squeaks one out at 2.0 but that's probably it
  11. brooklynwx99
    no, it's five consecutive months. this is the definition i've most commonly seen, but there isn't one that's the gold standard. NOAA classifies El Nino as five consecutive trimonthlies, though. 1997 and 2015 were over 2C for five straight trimonthlies
  12. brooklynwx99
    you know that these anomalies need to persist for months, right? there have to be five consecutive months over 2C for this event to be classified as super
  13. brooklynwx99
    looks like our next potential shot at something as this vort rounds the trough. GEFS picks up on it well this time
  14. brooklynwx99
    looks like our next potential shot at something as this vort rounds the trough. GEFS picks up on it well this time
  15. brooklynwx99
    yeah it looks like models are picking up on heat flux. would like to see this signal push into the medium range
  16. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF extended really dropped the strength of the SPV compared to yesterday... ends up weaker than average for most of December now
  17. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF extended really dropped the strength of the SPV compared to yesterday... ends up weaker than average for most of December now
  18. brooklynwx99
    makes sense given the MJO pass through 7-8-1-2 by the time we get to mid-late month
  19. brooklynwx99
    @GaWx look at this significant drop in SPV strength on the ECMWF extended compared to yesterday
  20. brooklynwx99
    i mean, we've only been in two legitimate El Ninos in the last decade, so it would be rare given the low frequency. I don't think it's a coincidence that we've already gotten a 8-1-2 pass given that this event is strong
  21. brooklynwx99
    the SPV is strong now, but it lessens to normal strength as we go on... normal is fine, as the SPV and TPV don't have to be coupled all the time
  22. brooklynwx99
    just saying, if we do indeed get that look in late December, it's off to the races IMO. can't think of a moderate / strong / super Nino that had a good pattern early to not continue it later in the winter the ones that started off with a good pattern were often prolific. 2002 and 2009 are the most prominent examples. of course, we will need to see if this is voodoo or not
  23. brooklynwx99
    yeah, no more pesky SW trough BS. pure Nino SE trough
  24. brooklynwx99
    this pattern makes sense given the MJO progression. pretty awesome look here with split flow undercutting a -EPO
  25. brooklynwx99
    if the mean forcing remains in these areas through the winter, which is certainly possible, I would argue yes
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