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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    yup, March is go big or go home. nice to see the ECMWF and UKMET agree. that used to be a deadly combo at this range, but who even knows now the EPS will be interesting. I'd like to see more of these show up
  2. brooklynwx99
    nah, 925mb temps drop to -2 to -1 with a massive CCB overhead. would rip to the coast verbatim
  3. brooklynwx99
    that kind of solution is where dynamic cooling would actually occur. 925mb temps are more useful here
  4. brooklynwx99
    that is one of the sickest 500mb evolutions i've ever seen. full capture and close E of LI
  5. brooklynwx99
    and then there's this
  6. brooklynwx99
    the UKMET actually manages to pull that off. absolutely sick 500mb evolution
  7. brooklynwx99
    if most of SNE wants in on it, the ECMWF / UKMET solution with a quicker transfer needs to happen. GFS is too late
  8. brooklynwx99
    the EPS is pretty crazy. scanning over the individual members, the ones that do nuke the metro are the ones that end up stalling and looping ACK southward. these probably capture the soonest. keep an eye on members 4, 11, 15, 19, 20, 21, 30, 31, 33, 34, and 43... these all have a far S stall and deliver a MECS to the area whether it happens or not is one thing, but there is certainly potential here
  9. brooklynwx99
    there is a pretty ridiculous amount of members that completely stall and loop sub-980 lows here. it's very impressive like there are 10-15 or so that straight up stall over or S of ACK. it's wild
  10. brooklynwx99
    I do like seeing the lower heights in S Canada and the ticking east of the ULL
  11. brooklynwx99
    christ
  12. brooklynwx99
    even last year with the blizzard, the ECMWF did leagues better than any other model. the GFS was awful pure coastals are the one thing that still remains as a sore spot for the GFS
  13. brooklynwx99
    I'll take my chances with that if it means I have to flirt with 2" of rain. that's the risk you have to take in mid-March anywhere near the coast
  14. brooklynwx99
    how does that not fit the pattern? Tip went on a whole diatribe about how this kind of exotic solution can arise. you have a massive lobe of vorticity over S Canada coinciding with a PNA phase change. it's not a ridiculous concept that a large storm can result
  15. brooklynwx99
    it's very difficult, but I think getting the NS lobe as far south as possible is the best way to get a big storm that can actually get cold enough. the ECMWF basically pulled off a heavy rain to blizzard type deal because of it away from the immediate coast temps are a problem, but something this dynamic is a possibility. it's intriguing if nothing else
  16. brooklynwx99
    ok
  17. brooklynwx99
    UKMET looks like it captures with the NS
  18. brooklynwx99
    that's the risk you'll have to take IMO. you need as amped as possible in mid-March even if you run the risk of a hugger
  19. brooklynwx99
    I agree... luckily that can be pretty easily remedied by a stronger PNA ridge allowing the NS to dig deeper or just random changes since we're still at Day 6. time is on our side here and the overall setup is quite explosive
  20. brooklynwx99
    a bit pessimistic considering such a dynamic system at day 6 lmao this has a lot of potential given the amount of energy being dumped into the trough but that's the tenor of the year, I suppose
  21. brooklynwx99
    yup, better PNA ridge
  22. brooklynwx99
    I agree, but with a setup that dynamic, I would roll the dice. almost always has to be a bomb to really get any appreciable snow in mid-March
  23. brooklynwx99
    high amplitude is an understatement. the Nina is dying
  24. brooklynwx99
    this is an absolute honker of a signal for this range
  25. brooklynwx99
    that evolution on the ECMWF is a nose hair from something much bigger. wouldn't take much at all... we need to see that ULL of the WC keep shifting W. if it shifts east next run, the changes at 12z could be erased. the whole setup is on a razor's edge
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