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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks better than 06z. kicking the S/W east faster, blocking is stronger
  2. brooklynwx99
    the GEFS is disagreeing with the strength of the main S/W by a ton at like 5 days lmao. I think the GFS just got it wrong. its ENS doesn’t even agree with it
  3. brooklynwx99
    also the GEFS is disagreeing with the strength of the main S/W by a ton at like 5 days lmao. I think the GFS just got it wrong. its ENS doesn’t even agree with it
  4. brooklynwx99
    my point was that even with a solution that would normally be an absolute catastrophe, it still manages to almost pull it off. that’s the sign of a really good pattern
  5. brooklynwx99
    I’m not focusing on the specifics at this range… just that the general evolution is the same and just as potent
  6. brooklynwx99
    even after allllll that, the GFS still redevelops. we literally get a coastal from this. that’s why this pattern is so good. you can still get a somewhat favorable end result from garbage
  7. brooklynwx99
    look at these run-to-run changes. it’s just a cracked out OP run. look at the consistency of the CMC/ECMWF and whatever the hell that is. just follow the ensembles
  8. brooklynwx99
    yup, the CMC is insane, very similar to 00z yesterday
  9. brooklynwx99
    also the CMC is still absurd. might be to the west verbatim but I don’t care. this is sick at 500mb and closely resembles 00z
  10. brooklynwx99
    this is why I hate hate hate when people say -NAOs are overrated. bullshit. this thing would be over the Dakotas and we’d be in the 70s if not for it instead, it might actually force a 3 sigma trough to the south. unreal
  11. brooklynwx99
    any strong wave versus this block is basically an immovable object versus a not completely unstoppable force (the vort). a block of this magnitude will win the vast majority of the time look at the persistent negative height anomalies from the gyre in the N Atl
  12. brooklynwx99
    any strong wave versus this block is basically an immovable object versus a not completely unstoppable force (the vort). a block of this magnitude will win the vast majority of the time look at the persistent negative height anomalies from the gyre in the N Atl
  13. brooklynwx99
    look at the NW flow in place over the NE US. this is not gonna be a typical solution that you’d see with a S/W that strong over the SW US. this might just go underneath
  14. brooklynwx99
    that still doesn’t even look bad with the absolutely insane block in place. let the run play out and then look at the ENS
  15. brooklynwx99
    here come the sweeping freakouts over one OP run
  16. brooklynwx99
    the blocking also got stronger so I don’t mind that shift I’d rather a vigorous wave coming out of the west than a piece of crap
  17. brooklynwx99
    EPS gone wild. like holy crap
  18. brooklynwx99
    absolutely insane signal for this range
  19. brooklynwx99
    this still looks amazing. wow
  20. brooklynwx99
    the EPS made a pretty significant shift towards a farther SW 50/50 that would help suppress height rises ahead of the main S/W overall, still looks mint
  21. brooklynwx99
    the EPS made a pretty significant shift towards a farther SW 50/50 that would help suppress height rises ahead of the main S/W overall, still looks mint
  22. brooklynwx99
    EPS runs inland but the 500mb is super ripe for a major storm. fine for this range
  23. brooklynwx99
    the major storm signal is still there… all that matters at this range. let’s see what the EPS does in a bit
  24. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF looks good so far
  25. brooklynwx99
    the GEFS has pretty much totally caved to the EPS/GEPS with its handling of the WC S/W. looks like next weekend is now a legit threat given that the models are kicking a shortwave under the block this is probably the highest potential pattern since March 2018. there will be multiple opportunities for high-end threats
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