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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    they were pretty similar
  2. brooklynwx99
    trending
  3. brooklynwx99
    the progression on the EPS is quite similar to that of Feb 2021 with the vigorous S/W getting forced underneath the block. it's not very far off. what a shift here just keep in mind that this is not the end solution at all... but the overall synoptics might not be failing us as we previously thought. gotta trust the pattern to produce
  4. brooklynwx99
    it's clear that the relationship between the Pacific jet and S/W is extremely delicate and OP runs won't really show us much when the setup is this chaotic. the Pacific jet has also been undermodeled all year, which actually works in our favor this time. just wait for the EPS
  5. brooklynwx99
    yup, great shifts on both ENS so far at 12z. probably has to do with the faster Pacific jet allowing the S/W to scoot E without amplifying so much
  6. brooklynwx99
    GEPS is also vastly improved. great 12z ENS runs so far
  7. brooklynwx99
    looking like a redevelopment/Miller B type event here with a dying primary in the OH Valley and baggy isobars off OBX
  8. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is night and day. love seeing the trough link up with the confluence as well. block is farther N, leading to a lower chance of linking with the height rises ahead of the trough great run. this is a major step in the right direction
  9. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is night and day. love seeing the trough link up with the confluence as well. block is farther N, leading to a lower chance of linking with the height rises ahead of the trough great run. this is a major step in the right direction
  10. brooklynwx99
    wow. GEFS is much, much improved due to the more zonal Pacific jet
  11. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is way less amped
  12. brooklynwx99
    same on CMC
  13. brooklynwx99
    CMC made the same improvements with the Pacific jet and poleward ridging into AK. should be better this run
  14. brooklynwx99
    i know we didn’t get what we wanted out of it, but these are noticeable shifts in the right direction
  15. brooklynwx99
    lower heights over the E Pac, higher heights over AK and a shallower trough. all good stuff
  16. brooklynwx99
    GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution
  17. brooklynwx99
    GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution
  18. brooklynwx99
    06z EPS made another shift towards knocking down the WC ridge due to a more zonal Pacific jet… the incoming S/W is weaker as a result
  19. brooklynwx99
    big improvement on the EPS
  20. brooklynwx99
    yup, the ECMWF had a stronger Pacific jet that led to the S/W getting booted out under the block faster… the EPS is following with that idea
  21. brooklynwx99
    nope. the 00z EPS has a much more zonally oriented Pacific jet… this should lead to the same positive changes that we saw on the OP
  22. brooklynwx99
    it’s really coming down to seeing how much of an impact the Pacific jet can have on the S/W more of an impact and you flatten the +PNA, kick the S/W under the block, and you get this kind of solution. and if less, well… the worst thing is that models are HORRIBLE with that kind of stuff. good luck getting that resolved
  23. brooklynwx99
    this was not what I was expecting, to say the least. wow
  24. brooklynwx99
    this is actually really close to a big solution with the confluence parked over the NE US… the block overhead should force this east i know we haven’t seen exactly what we’ve wanted today, but this run just shows how extremely touchy everything is out west and how prone it all is to change. it’s not an aphorism that things will change… it’s almost a certainty with this amplified and as finicky of a setup as this one
  25. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF is actually much improved… the stronger Pacific jet might allow for the S/W to roll under the block changes in the E Pac are significant
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