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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    big improvement on the EPS
  2. brooklynwx99
    yup, the ECMWF had a stronger Pacific jet that led to the S/W getting booted out under the block faster… the EPS is following with that idea
  3. brooklynwx99
    nope. the 00z EPS has a much more zonally oriented Pacific jet… this should lead to the same positive changes that we saw on the OP
  4. brooklynwx99
    it’s really coming down to seeing how much of an impact the Pacific jet can have on the S/W more of an impact and you flatten the +PNA, kick the S/W under the block, and you get this kind of solution. and if less, well… the worst thing is that models are HORRIBLE with that kind of stuff. good luck getting that resolved
  5. brooklynwx99
    this was not what I was expecting, to say the least. wow
  6. brooklynwx99
    this is actually really close to a big solution with the confluence parked over the NE US… the block overhead should force this east i know we haven’t seen exactly what we’ve wanted today, but this run just shows how extremely touchy everything is out west and how prone it all is to change. it’s not an aphorism that things will change… it’s almost a certainty with this amplified and as finicky of a setup as this one
  7. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF is actually much improved… the stronger Pacific jet might allow for the S/W to roll under the block changes in the E Pac are significant
  8. brooklynwx99
    what in that post was incorrect? tell me. give me details
  9. brooklynwx99
    also, I only post about good stuff because it’s already suffocating when people are posting 10 times about a dogshit solution… I don’t feel like it’s needed to pile on unless there’s incorrect analysis or anything like that there’s nothing wrong with being an optimist. there’s already enough pessimistic viewpoints
  10. brooklynwx99
    call me a weenie all you want… I’m not going to throw in the towel 8 days out when a major ENS has that solution. no fucking way
  11. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks great. if we’re gonna talk about how bad the new data is, we have to use all of it. this leans towards a much more favorable solution and shows why it’s foolish to totally burn the house down
  12. brooklynwx99
    also, I don’t need anyone acting like they “saw this coming” for any reason other than pessimism because a) the mood was near ecstatic like 12 hours ago and b) we are eight days out! things will change! christ.
  13. brooklynwx99
    telling people not to completely abandon multiple days’ worth of thinking because of like 3 OP runs is weenie-ish? ok dude. sometimes you have to stick to your guns a bit and let the cards fall further. that’s how forecasting works
  14. brooklynwx99
    dude, i have poo poo’d half the damn winter. I’m also not going to completely shift my thinking in 12 hours from what i’ve been thinking over the last 5 days. if we’re still here on Sunday, yeah, but there’s value in sticking to things a bit and not being so reactionary
  15. brooklynwx99
    throw in the towel at 8 days if you want, but don’t come back if things become more favorable. there are going to be many changes
  16. brooklynwx99
    this is a bit disingenuous. the evolution was completely different compared to when you first made that remark
  17. brooklynwx99
    if you guys want to track a storm from 10-15 days out, this comes with the territory. not sure what else to tell you. storms don’t stay in the bullseye on every OP run for 20-40 runs straight
  18. brooklynwx99
    OP runs are basically ensemble members at this range. chill out
  19. brooklynwx99
    so much confluence here over the NE US
  20. brooklynwx99
    stronger 50/50, though
  21. brooklynwx99
    I would still caution against using snowfall means. the 500mb pattern is so good that models will probably come around on that stuff. they already kind of are
  22. brooklynwx99
    NSFW 500mb progression. god damn. great to see the greatest anomalies to our south as well
  23. brooklynwx99
    the ebbing -NAO is often the driver for some of the most prolific storms in NE US history
  24. brooklynwx99
    NSFW 500mb progression. god damn. great to see the greatest anomalies to our south as well
  25. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks amazing
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