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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    also, I don’t need anyone acting like they “saw this coming” for any reason other than pessimism because a) the mood was near ecstatic like 12 hours ago and b) we are eight days out! things will change! christ.
  2. brooklynwx99
    telling people not to completely abandon multiple days’ worth of thinking because of like 3 OP runs is weenie-ish? ok dude. sometimes you have to stick to your guns a bit and let the cards fall further. that’s how forecasting works
  3. brooklynwx99
    dude, i have poo poo’d half the damn winter. I’m also not going to completely shift my thinking in 12 hours from what i’ve been thinking over the last 5 days. if we’re still here on Sunday, yeah, but there’s value in sticking to things a bit and not being so reactionary
  4. brooklynwx99
    throw in the towel at 8 days if you want, but don’t come back if things become more favorable. there are going to be many changes
  5. brooklynwx99
    this is a bit disingenuous. the evolution was completely different compared to when you first made that remark
  6. brooklynwx99
    if you guys want to track a storm from 10-15 days out, this comes with the territory. not sure what else to tell you. storms don’t stay in the bullseye on every OP run for 20-40 runs straight
  7. brooklynwx99
    OP runs are basically ensemble members at this range. chill out
  8. brooklynwx99
    so much confluence here over the NE US
  9. brooklynwx99
    stronger 50/50, though
  10. brooklynwx99
    I would still caution against using snowfall means. the 500mb pattern is so good that models will probably come around on that stuff. they already kind of are
  11. brooklynwx99
    NSFW 500mb progression. god damn. great to see the greatest anomalies to our south as well
  12. brooklynwx99
    the ebbing -NAO is often the driver for some of the most prolific storms in NE US history
  13. brooklynwx99
    NSFW 500mb progression. god damn. great to see the greatest anomalies to our south as well
  14. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks amazing
  15. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks better than 06z. kicking the S/W east faster, blocking is stronger
  16. brooklynwx99
    the GEFS is disagreeing with the strength of the main S/W by a ton at like 5 days lmao. I think the GFS just got it wrong. its ENS doesn’t even agree with it
  17. brooklynwx99
    also the GEFS is disagreeing with the strength of the main S/W by a ton at like 5 days lmao. I think the GFS just got it wrong. its ENS doesn’t even agree with it
  18. brooklynwx99
    my point was that even with a solution that would normally be an absolute catastrophe, it still manages to almost pull it off. that’s the sign of a really good pattern
  19. brooklynwx99
    I’m not focusing on the specifics at this range… just that the general evolution is the same and just as potent
  20. brooklynwx99
    even after allllll that, the GFS still redevelops. we literally get a coastal from this. that’s why this pattern is so good. you can still get a somewhat favorable end result from garbage
  21. brooklynwx99
    look at these run-to-run changes. it’s just a cracked out OP run. look at the consistency of the CMC/ECMWF and whatever the hell that is. just follow the ensembles
  22. brooklynwx99
    yup, the CMC is insane, very similar to 00z yesterday
  23. brooklynwx99
    also the CMC is still absurd. might be to the west verbatim but I don’t care. this is sick at 500mb and closely resembles 00z
  24. brooklynwx99
    this is why I hate hate hate when people say -NAOs are overrated. bullshit. this thing would be over the Dakotas and we’d be in the 70s if not for it instead, it might actually force a 3 sigma trough to the south. unreal
  25. brooklynwx99
    any strong wave versus this block is basically an immovable object versus a not completely unstoppable force (the vort). a block of this magnitude will win the vast majority of the time look at the persistent negative height anomalies from the gyre in the N Atl
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