brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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some of you guys are absolutely ridiculous lmao
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CMC looks very nice. vort goes right underneath the block. ends up dry verbatim, but this is the 500mb configuration you’d like to see. just a bit messy
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the way the GFS handles the block afterwards is bizarre, though. retrograding blocks just don’t do that. i’ve seen a fair amount of them and i’ve never seen them do that before. i wouldn’t worry about it. it’s exotic, to say the least either way, it’s trending towards the other models with the handling of the vort out west and the CMC has held serve so far
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the CMC is also not going anywhere near the previous GFS solutions… looks great so far
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vort isn’t hanging back as much into the Pac NW as much this run. bigggg change here
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GFS looks improved so far more poleward ridging into AK like the EPS/GEPS and the vort in the NW US is tilted more positively
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the “hot” and “cold” model stuff is just confirmation bias it’s the equivalent of playing Call of Duty and saying “as soon as i stop looking around this corner and move somewhere else I die!” when in reality you don’t get shot most of the time. you only pick up on it when it does happen it’s the same thing
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i posted about it in detail a few minutes earlier
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yup, all of this should be sorted by then. probably sooner
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that is the major feature that determines whether the vort gets booted east or not, that one difference makes all the difference. there is a piece of a ridge on the EPS where the GEFS has a trough in the E Pacific. it’s a big change they also vary in how they deal with the AK ridging. EPS and GEPS are more poleward
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idk if some of you guys are doing like some weird reverse psychology coping mechanism stuff saying that the GFS “won” or whatever, but it makes zero sense and it’s kind of annoying i get the cynicism, but come on
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I wouldn’t say so. the way that the vort behaves is still radically different the EPS still boots the vort relatively quickly. it’s about the same as 12z in that regard, you can see it moving east. the GEFS actually backs the core of the trough NW. they’re totally different still. wouldn’t say one moved towards the other the EPS probably amped the trough up a bit more, which explains the W tick, but the way it behaves is the same as 12z due to the differing Pacific layouts
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18z EPS only goes out to 144
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EPS still looks nothing like the GEFS. all is well
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it’s farther east and at least attempting to get it out of the west, that was the point there also, I don’t think the adage of models being “hot” or “cold” has merit. past performance is not an indication of future success, and the GFS is far away from the consensus, so I have to lean against it if some want to be pessimistic, i get it, but we just have to see things shake out
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I'm only half kidding, I think this pattern broke the GFS. like what the actual F is this
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the EPS and GEPS are in absolute lock step agreement with every major pattern feature and then you have the GEFS in left field picking its nose. idk. I can't believe it right now unless the EPS or GEPS make a big shift towards it either way, one camp is going to cave soon. let's hope it's the GEFS
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it almost always goes towards the OP, though. it's a bad ensemble
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this is also what I mean. it looks like the GFS is also just having a hard time with the pattern right now and it breaks everything down WAY too fast like wtf is this? this doesn't even have any waves. just a bunch of smattered crap. compare that with the EPS control, which looks like actual weather
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I'll put it this way. if the GFS/GEFS was the only model showing a favorable outcome and every other model had what the GFS has now, would you believe the favorable outcome? I absolutely would not. it's a game of odds and they're in our favor right now
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these differences are occurring at like Day 5-6, so this will be resolved over the next couple of days anyway, regardless of the outcome
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there is definitely a trend here to get the vort out faster, though, regardless of whatever weird way the GFS is thinking of doing it verbatim
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the relative consistency of the ECMWF / CMC also give me a bit more confidence that they have the right idea. the GFS has been a bit erratic with its handling of the NW US vort
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yup, exactly... continuing the trends from 12z. block is stronger too
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looks like a true block as well with a trough stretching from the E US into Europe. kinda like your avatar
