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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. would definitely be cold enough if we get a coastal SLP, not really worried about temps as of now
  2. hey, based on what I’ve seen, the EPS/GEPS are on the right track and the GEFS is slowly caving. the GEFS made a bigggg move last night towards them
  3. the EPS continues to improve, and the GEFS made a huge shift last night towards the EPS/GEPS with regards to booting the S/W out of the west. gets a lot more of the vort into the Plains. good ENS runs last night
  4. 06z EPS made some nice improvements. the S/W is a bit less held back, the block is stronger, and so is the 50/50… less downstream ridging and the 50/50 pokes more into the NE US
  5. i can see that happening that far north, suppression can be an issue up there
  6. robust signal for a coastal low with lots of cold air around
  7. just because a model shows something does not mean that it’s likely to occur
  8. EPS looks pretty much the same. don’t get all the hemming and hawing. i also think that any “increases” in the SE ridge are due to slightly slower timing. it still looks pretty much the same as we’ve seen it over the last few days
  9. holy crap. we are FINALLY seeing the GEFS eject a significant portion of the S/W into the Plains. this is a massive move towards the EPS/GEPS. probably the move most of you were waiting for. here it is! hopefully it sticks at 06z lmao
  10. GEFS isn’t hanging the energy back nearly as much as 18z
  11. because all of the legitimate improvements of said run were ignored for the result, which was meteorologically dubious anyway. retrograding blocks don’t just plow southward like that
  12. CMC looks very nice. vort goes right underneath the block. ends up dry verbatim, but this is the 500mb configuration you’d like to see. just a bit messy
  13. the way the GFS handles the block afterwards is bizarre, though. retrograding blocks just don’t do that. i’ve seen a fair amount of them and i’ve never seen them do that before. i wouldn’t worry about it. it’s exotic, to say the least either way, it’s trending towards the other models with the handling of the vort out west and the CMC has held serve so far
  14. the CMC is also not going anywhere near the previous GFS solutions… looks great so far
  15. vort isn’t hanging back as much into the Pac NW as much this run. bigggg change here
  16. GFS looks improved so far more poleward ridging into AK like the EPS/GEPS and the vort in the NW US is tilted more positively
  17. the “hot” and “cold” model stuff is just confirmation bias it’s the equivalent of playing Call of Duty and saying “as soon as i stop looking around this corner and move somewhere else I die!” when in reality you don’t get shot most of the time. you only pick up on it when it does happen it’s the same thing
  18. that is the major feature that determines whether the vort gets booted east or not, that one difference makes all the difference. there is a piece of a ridge on the EPS where the GEFS has a trough in the E Pacific. it’s a big change they also vary in how they deal with the AK ridging. EPS and GEPS are more poleward
  19. idk if some of you guys are doing like some weird reverse psychology coping mechanism stuff saying that the GFS “won” or whatever, but it makes zero sense and it’s kind of annoying i get the cynicism, but come on
  20. I wouldn’t say so. the way that the vort behaves is still radically different the EPS still boots the vort relatively quickly. it’s about the same as 12z in that regard, you can see it moving east. the GEFS actually backs the core of the trough NW. they’re totally different still. wouldn’t say one moved towards the other the EPS probably amped the trough up a bit more, which explains the W tick, but the way it behaves is the same as 12z due to the differing Pacific layouts
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