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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    the whole evolution is wild. the S/W slides under the block and amplifies as the block decays. 50/50 in place. it's a great setup
  2. brooklynwx99
    lmao if this is the pattern projected by the best ENS at 8 days out and everyone wants to downplay it for whatever reason, then whatever, but it's a bit foolish to me. I personally don't understand it at all
  3. brooklynwx99
    that has absolutely nothing to do with this event
  4. brooklynwx99
    I personally don't care what the snowfall outputs are when the longwave pattern is this favorable. something big usually pops there, and it often favors BOS to DCA compare this to the pattern one day before all of NYC's 18"+ storms. the pattern shown here and the composite are very similar. that's why it's exciting
  5. brooklynwx99
    I get what you mean, but I feel like you're missing the forest for the trees here. the longwave setup is almost perfect. will it produce? we can't say that yet, but this pattern gives us a much, much better shot than normal
  6. brooklynwx99
    lmao it's like 8 days out. the ensembles are way more important than the OP the OP is basically betting on one ENS member to give you snow. makes no sense at this range
  7. brooklynwx99
    I say this with all due respect, but I am not sure what else you'd want to look for on a Day 8 ENS output for major storm potential. it checks every box I don't care about snowfall output when I see that high-end 500mb configuration. lots of members pop coastals, but of course there's going to be a lot of spread at this range when 52 members are involved
  8. brooklynwx99
    the bang usually occurs when the -NAO decays. that's why this signal is so compelling I do think that the models are overdoing just how fast the NAO decays, though. we should see some semblance of it for much of the month, but this is the main event
  9. brooklynwx99
    EPS is absurd for next weekend there's pretty much everything here for a major storm vigorous S/W digging over the Plains decaying -NAO over north central Canada highly anomalous 50/50 ULL ridging building upstream
  10. brooklynwx99
    EPS is absurd for next weekend there's pretty much everything here for a major storm vigorous S/W digging over the Plains decaying -NAO over north central Canada highly anomalous 50/50 ULL ridging building upstream
  11. brooklynwx99
    there's pretty much everything here for a major storm vigorous S/W digging over the Plains decaying -NAO over north central Canada highly anomalous 50/50 ULL ridging building upstream
  12. brooklynwx99
    jesus christ
  13. brooklynwx99
    GEPS is gorgeous. -NAO decays, +PNA moves east, and the S/W amplifies with the 50/50 in place
  14. brooklynwx99
    GEPS looks absolutely mint
  15. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks like it should eject more of the vort this run
  16. brooklynwx99
    high amplitude blocking patterns like this are absolute hell for modeling. I would just focus on the ensembles and really try not to place too much emphasis on OP runs. there are going to be so many wildly different solutions either way, I find it hard to believe that an impactful storm won't pop from this at some point through the 15th, even if most OP runs don't see it now. this is a powder keg setup
  17. brooklynwx99
    CMC looks similar to 00z so far anyway
  18. brooklynwx99
    I think it's lost
  19. brooklynwx99
    would definitely be cold enough if we get a coastal SLP, not really worried about temps as of now
  20. brooklynwx99
    hey, based on what I’ve seen, the EPS/GEPS are on the right track and the GEFS is slowly caving. the GEFS made a bigggg move last night towards them
  21. brooklynwx99
    the EPS continues to improve, and the GEFS made a huge shift last night towards the EPS/GEPS with regards to booting the S/W out of the west. gets a lot more of the vort into the Plains. good ENS runs last night
  22. brooklynwx99
    06z EPS made some nice improvements. the S/W is a bit less held back, the block is stronger, and so is the 50/50… less downstream ridging and the 50/50 pokes more into the NE US
  23. brooklynwx99
    i can see that happening that far north, suppression can be an issue up there
  24. brooklynwx99
    robust signal for a coastal low with lots of cold air around
  25. brooklynwx99
    just because a model shows something does not mean that it’s likely to occur
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